Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Whats coming up?

The wonderful York Ebor meeting continues, with 4 races televised, including an 8/1 the field handicap, and the Yorkshire Oaks, featuring amongst others "The Fugue", & "Was".

The Vuelta a Espana has more coverage on ITV & Eurosport.

In football, Newcastle, Liverpool & Motherwell all play their Europa League preliminary matches. Newcastle in Europe, there's a thing. Hope they do well. 

We have a double helping of decent televised golf today - throughout the day we have the Johnny Walker from Gleneagles, & this evening, the Barclays from Bethpage, which is in or near New York I believe. Tough course apparently.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Thanks Trev. (The Sir Henry photos).

I could have uploaded a dozen or more, he is such a special chap, & I've followed him, & his horses for over 40 years, & before him, his stepfather, from whom he learned his craft, Sir Cecil Boyd-Rochfort, who trained for the Royal family, & specialised in stayers & Cup horses.

Sir Henry is 69 now, incredible how a lifetime flies past. 

[Tonji]

In our bicycle race thing, the Vuelta a Espana, after Stage 5, I think we are still leading. It is early days yet, but we are in there with a great shout.

Yes, still a 1 second lead after yesterdays flat stage. He's stated in an interview that today he will attack his rivals on the steep climb at the end of the stage. We'll see.

[typhoon13]

Thanks Trev. (The Sir Henry photos).

I could have uploaded a dozen or more, he is such a special chap, & I've followed him, & his horses for over 40 years, & before him, his stepfather, from whom he learned his craft, Sir Cecil Boyd-Rochfort, who trained for the Royal family, & specialised in stayers & Cup horses.

Sir Henry is 69 now, incredible how a lifetime flies past. 

I have met and spoken to Sir Henry on numerous occasions whilst out racing

He always remembers you and finds time for a chat, brilliant guy.

Was sat at the July course talking to him and he interrupted me three times to tell me about a horse he had
running the next day at Redcar up against a Channon odds on Favourite.
So the next day me and the wife trawled round Lincolnshire backing his horse which duly obliged.

[tikay]

Weekend golf.

It may seem foolish to abandon 3G this weekend when he needs to win to automatically qualify for the Ryder cup, and the field is very weak but on his blog he states he is knackered, so I am going to leave him alone and stick to the Barclay's tournament in the USA.

Our friend Dr Noh is in action after having a rest, and this is a really tough field. His odds for a top 20 are only 3-1 which is too skinny but I am going to advise him to be top Korean this weekend. There are only 4 choices in this market and he is joint favourite with KJ Choi at 7-4. We know Dr Noh is very consistent and with a tough course he may not have to do very much at all to win this bet.

So Dr Noh top Korean £20 @ 7-4 with Paddy Power or Ladbrokes.

With regards to an outright winner then I am going for Graham McDowell. This course has hosted the US Open before so it will be tough and that is what McDowell likes. His performance in coming 2nd in the US Open this year shows that he can handle hard courses, and by all accounts it will also be a boisterous crowd creating a need for a cool temperament.

Suggest £5 win 40-1 with Betfred.

I think it important if you are betting on golf tournaments to have a number of picks so if no one else makes any suggestions then my other picks that I am doing are Bubba Watson and Bill Haas so you may want to add them to the portfolio with £5 each.

Morning Hector.

This is the easiest of all the recommends, & I've gone along with the lot. The bet sizes are sensible, the odds seem (to me) to be reasonable, too. As you say, with Golf, a few picks are necessary, & we have to play the variance game.

Incidentally, I have stuck with your suggestion of "only" £20 on Dr Noh ("Top Korean) for Fred, but I have had a good deal more on my own account, it looks a great bet to me. I know you like to look after your ROI, so I have not increased your recommend bet size, but it looks worth more to me. Incidentally, he is a juicy 109/1 with Betfair on the outrights, so I could not resist a fiver on my own (NOT Fred) account. 

£20 @ 7/4, Top Korean, Paddy Power.

In the Ouitrights, we have

Bill Haas, £5 @ 74/1with Betfair.

McDowell, £5 @ 49/1, Betfair

Bubba, £5 @ 29/1, Betfair.


ON 

The Barclays Top Korean Player
23-08-2012 12:10
Top Korean Player
Noh, Seung-Yul @ 7/4
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Noh, Seung-Yul @ 7/4
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential returns: £55.00
No: O/23146337/0000087

 
Total stake: £20.00
 _____________
 


The Barclays 2012
Bubba WatsonWinner    30 £5.00 £145.00
Bet Ref: 21683147269M Bet matched: 2012-08-23T09:17:52.000Z

____________________


The Barclays 2012
Graeme McDowellWinner    50 £5.00 £245.00
Bet Ref: 21683159372M Bet matched: 2012-08-23T09:19:43.000Z


__________________

 Group B / The Barclays 2012 / Winner  Bill Haas Back 21683139458  23-Aug-12
10:16    75 5.00  75 23-Aug-12 10:16 

[Simon Galloway]

The wonderful York Ebor meeting continues, with 4 races televised, including an 8/1 the field handicap, and the Yorkshire Oaks, featuring amongst others "The Fugue", & "Was".

First time text bettors can text PP on 51465 with the phrase "£50 enhanced the fugue" and get 3/1.  As it is available to lay at 2.7 on BF, a lay of ~ £75 @ 2.7 will see you ~ £22 richer regardless of outcome.

[tikay]

The wonderful York Ebor meeting continues, with 4 races televised, including an 8/1 the field handicap, and the Yorkshire Oaks, featuring amongst others "The Fugue", & "Was".

First time text bettors can text PP on 51465 with the phrase "£50 enhanced the fugue" and get 3/1.  As it is available to lay at 2.7 on BF, a lay of ~ £75 @ 2.7 will see you ~ £22 richer regardless of outcome.

3/1, & she is best price 7/4!

They also have a "Mobile Money Back Special" on Fugue, "if your horse finishes 2nd to the Fugue, money back".

What does all that suggest, if anything?

[Doobs]

The wonderful York Ebor meeting continues, with 4 races televised, including an 8/1 the field handicap, and the Yorkshire Oaks, featuring amongst others "The Fugue", & "Was".

First time text bettors can text PP on 51465 with the phrase "£50 enhanced the fugue" and get 3/1.  As it is available to lay at 2.7 on BF, a lay of ~ £75 @ 2.7 will see you ~ £22 richer regardless of outcome.

3/1, & she is best price 7/4!

They also have a "Mobile Money Back Special" on Fugue, "if your horse finishes 2nd to the Fugue, money back".

What does all that suggest, if anything?

They think £22 is a good price to attract a new customer? 

[tikay]

I think Fred missed all my tips for yesterdays football.

Doncaster and Wolves both won, I also tipped Frankel over 5 lengths in a topic on here, also just come in. But of course Fred isn't going to get on everything good for sure. Sometimes we swurve and it's all good, sometimes we get on and it's all bad.

Another one tonight is Blackburn to beat Hull. I have seen the likely Blackburn side and they have so much quality, enough quality to get past a Hull side who scraped past Brighton at the weekend. Again, up for discussion is the price and I think EVS is a decent price for Blackburn, it's pretty desperate times for Blackburn at the moment and Kean, so I can only see a win for Blackburn here.

As for the Swansea bet, I think the price is right, not sure there is much value. I wouldn't like to bet on this game, because both have contrasting styles of football and long ball football certainly has the potential to stop Swansea playing their usual game for sure. I can't see many goals in the game though.

Morning Aaron.

I missed this (the Blackburn bet) as I was offline, though I'm being a bit nitty with football bets right now.

However, we never received any compelling reasons from others to suggest it was value, and as I am not really wised up enough to know either way, it's unlikely we would have got on.  And yes, Blackburn DID win. Well done, but from what I can see, it was not value.

However, you did not tip Wolves to win, as suggested at the top of your Post, or not that I can see.

We shall continuue, for a little while yet, to be very cautious with football, unless someone comes up with good, compelling logic, suggesting we can get real value on a particular game for whatever reason.

[tikay]

The wonderful York Ebor meeting continues, with 4 races televised, including an 8/1 the field handicap, and the Yorkshire Oaks, featuring amongst others "The Fugue", & "Was".

First time text bettors can text PP on 51465 with the phrase "£50 enhanced the fugue" and get 3/1.  As it is available to lay at 2.7 on BF, a lay of ~ £75 @ 2.7 will see you ~ £22 richer regardless of outcome.

3/1, & she is best price 7/4!

They also have a "Mobile Money Back Special" on Fugue, "if your horse finishes 2nd to the Fugue, money back".

What does all that suggest, if anything?

They think £22 is a good price to attract a new customer? 

Thanks, yes, obv, a new Account to any Online bookie is worth far more than £22, but I was referring to any possible correlation with other offer, &/or the two being offered at the same time. 

[tikay]

Was just a question, really.

Too busy enjoying the race to worry about value hunting. Magnificent. He's actually better over this distance!

SPOTY shortlist contender?

SPOTY is without doubt the most talked about subject on here, it's verging on an obsession.

It deffo gets a lot of discussion.

Personally, it does not interest me one jot or tickle, but it's all subjective, different strokes for different folks, & it's entirely legit to discuss & debate.  We've got a few bob invested, too!

[tikay]

Hull are very resilient - I can easily see them getting a point at Ewood Park?  Not sure I fancy evens on Blackburn.

Could easily be a draw between 2 potentially overrated sides but the bet that interests me isn't tonight, its snapping up the 9/4 on Leicester at Ewood on Saturday if Blackburn aren't great, that could turn out to be a nice bit of value.

Thanks Brent.

Better than 2/1 remains widely available. Any further views on this after Blackburn's win last night?

I'm actually quite interested in hearing more about this one. Not talking about much, maybe £25 or £50 at most.

Any opinions from anyone else?

[horseplayer]

Eden Hazard to win a penalty (must be fouled) @ 18/1 
Market
Player Specials
 
Event
 English Premier League
Chelsea v Newcastle United
2012-08-25 17:30:00

Bluesq

suggest £20 personally i have a bit more on already and i suspect the price will crash today anyway

reasoning.

Hazard has won penalties in both league games this season already... He was priced at 20-1 by bluesq for the first televised game he played over here and i am shocked they are still going 18-1 tbh.

Is two games enough? of course not but he won penalties in 9 seperate games in france last season, it is hard to equate but im pretty sure 18-1 is to big by at least a few points.


 

[tikay]

Northampton to beat Southend on Saturday in div 2

Northampton are still unbeaten this season including dumping Cardiff out of the cup.

Southend are currently bottom after 2 losses and even chompys lot beat them 4-0

Northampton are 11/8 with bet365 and victor. I recommend a £40 home win on Northampton.

That looks value, Jim, thanks.
 
The price is still moving around, but we'll probably get on later today.

Saw Georgeous George (& Dena) in Coventry last night. George has had a really severe haircut, bless him!

[Doobs]

Was just a question, really.

Too busy enjoying the race to worry about value hunting. Magnificent. He's actually better over this distance!

SPOTY shortlist contender?

SPOTY is without doubt the most talked about subject on here, it's verging on an obsession.

It deffo gets a lot of discussion.

Personally, it does not interest me one jot or tickle, but it's all subjective, different strokes for different folks, & it's entirely legit to discuss & debate.  We've got a few bob invested, too!

Talking of things that dont interest me one jot, are we greening out Julian clary in celeb BB yet?  I haven't watched one second so have no idea how he is getting on.

Great touch on Miss China.  I was a bit slow realising why she kept getting mentioned. You get so used to dismissing people saying that online poker is rigged that you end up assuming it doesn't happen in the real world.  Just wish I'd worked out what your edge was sooner!