Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

Fred's man Rodriguez wins todays stage of the Vuelta, meaning he will extend his lead into the teens of seconds over Froome who finished 2nd.

Strong finish from our man. How do you read Contador's form Longy?

Until today I thought he looked real strong, but maybe his constant attacks the other day were a bluff as he didn't sustain any of them.

Today he seemed incapable of doing anything but following wheels and was tailed off when Froome went. Was reminiscent of the Tour last year when his form wasn't there.

Good day for Froome all in all and Rodriguez obv.

Yeah, agree. His lack of grand tour racing may be telling.

Froome, yeah still strong. His Sky team made his race today. The hot weather, if it continues, could still have an impact on him.

[MahoganyVic]

Rojas still 9/1 on Betfair. any value in this? He looked really impressive today.

Only started watching a lot of cycling during the tour that Evans won, so missed Contador at his peak. Does he struggle when there is a constant high pace up the mountains rather than a slower pace with bursts of accelerations? I remember him being dropped a few times in the last tour he raced in when there was constant pressure on him

[Tonji]

Rojas still 9/1 on Betfair. any value in this? He looked really impressive today.

Only started watching a lot of cycling during the tour that Evans won, so missed Contador at his peak. Does he struggle when there is a constant high pace up the mountains rather than a slower pace with bursts of accelerations? I remember him being dropped a few times in the last tour he raced in when there was constant pressure on him

Assume you refer to Rodriguez. Price reflects that Contador & Froome are better time trialists, were big chunks of time can be made up. Froome's race tactics will be based around this. Not yet checked the TT stage yet to work out expected time differences.

The Vuelta this year is mountain heavy. Rodriguez excels in steep short climbs. Although he has improved overall, as his 2nd in the Giro shows. The time bonuses could be crucial.

Price is about right at the moment imo.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0735, Friday August 24th

PROFIT on Month £602.00

Unsettled Bets  - £427.50

The spreadsheet is here...

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0806, Friday August 24th

Once again, no bets completed yesterday, though we placed 7 new bets for the weekend, all of them quite small, total cost £125, so as of now, our healthy profit for August remains intact.

We tried to take advantage of a Paddy Power "Text" bet special, where Mr Galloway showed we could make a free & guaranteed £20, but were unable to get the Text Bet accepted in time, as I had not previously given then my phone number. The net result is that Paddy Power now have my phone number, but we never got on. Well done them. 

Our bet on the bicycle race in Spain, (Tonji) is proving to be good fun, & great value. Our man now leads Froome by 10 seconds, & Contador by 36 seconds, so we deffo have a "live one".

http://www.lavuelta.com/12/es/resultados/index.html?e=6

There is an interview with Mr Rodriguez here.....

http://www.lavuelta.com/

The new bets?

In football for the weekend, we invested the following....

£10 @ 18/1, Hazard to win a penalty. (horsey)

£40 @ 9/4, Leicester to beat Blackburn. (Horneris)

£40 @ 6/4, Northampton to beat Southend (77Dave).

We also spent £35 on a few golf darts, all down to hector, & all in the "Barclays" at Bethpage.

£5 @ 74/1, Bill Haas

£5 @ 49/1, Graham McDowell

£5 @ 29/1, Bubba Watson

£20 @ 7/4, Dr Noh to be Top Korean.

The players who went out early  had much the better of things, & so we did not get away to a great start. The leaders are bunched around the -4 to -7 range, & we have....

-1, Bubba

Level par, Haas

+4, McDowell.

In the "Top Korean", a bad start, we are 4 behind Choi, who had the early start advantage. However, we have three days to rectify that, & 4 strokes over 3 days is quite catchupable.

Not a great start then, but plenty of time. The TV coverage was a bit painful, thanks to incessant Ryder Cup chatter & hype.

The day, however, belonged to Padraig Harrington, who took advantage of an early start to batter Bethpage with a 7 under.

Here's the man.




The other 4 ridiculous names?

Well according to the website where I found that, they are....

Duffy Waldorf

Willie Wood

Dicky Pride

Charles Howell III

See....


http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=padraig+harrington&view=detail&id=275C682421E2AB0E3CFA45745C83CEDD283A42F3&first=61&FORM=IDFRIR&adlt=strict

I'm pretty sure we could come up with better than that.

[Snowball]

Should Harrington even be in the top 5000?

[Tal]

Davis Love III is OK but Charles Howell III is ridiculous?

[tikay]

Whats coming up?

The Cycling & golf continue.

Racing (Channel 4) is again from York, today being "Sky Bet" day, as they are the sponsor for most of the card. Great card it is too, with the Group 2 Gimcrack (6f), & Group 1 Nunthorpe (5f).

I had the good fortune to be a guest in the Sky Bet box for this day 2 years ago.

The Nunthorpe on that occasion was won by a 100/1 shot, Sole Power (runs in the race again today as it happens).

As "awkward moments" go, a 100/1 shot winning is quite a thing in a Bookies Private Box, exclusively occupied by big punters, & Sky Bet Staff. The punters all went deathly quiet, & the Staff did not quite know where to look, what to say, or how to suppress a smile.

FWIW, the last 5 Nunthorpe winners have been returned at 20/1, 100/1, 9/1, 12/1, & 12/1.

Good luck if you fancy finding the winner to that.

 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/york/15:40

Cricket, where we had such a great sweat & result earlier this week, retuerns to the TV screen, with the first ODI between England & South Africa being held in Cardiff of all places.

They go 4/5 South Africa, Evens England, but better value may be found in the sub-markets. Recommends awaited......

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-odis/england-v-south-africa-[1st-odi]/betting-markets

There is also Championship football on Sky Sports this evening - Bolton v Forest. It's generally Evens Bolton, 3/1 Forest.  We have a recommend for Forest, & I'll work through that, & the other unresolved football recommends shortly.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/bolton-v-nottingham-forest/winner

Finally, on thin pretence, I will give you a stunning photograph, taken no less than 48 years ago. The significance is strongly related to a sporting event being held today. Which one?

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Should Harrington even be in the top 5000?

(And Tal).

I think we can put their strange selection down to American "humour".

[tikay]

Agree Leicester are good value at Blackburn on saturday.

Lost to Charlton in midweek but by all the reports had a hatfull of chances in 2nd half.

Blackburn players must hate playing at home with all the abuse Keane is getting.

I would price Leics at 7-4 so or better to me is value.

Also think Forest at with coral are overpriced. Played really well conceeding last

minute penalty for 1-1 draw midweek against Huddersfield.  Plus think Bolton are vastly overrated

and will finish mid table.

Thanks Jim.

We are on Leicester already, down to Brent.

We will go with Forest, though, 3/1 sounds good value judging by the feedback on the thread. 

£25 @ 3/1, Corals, Forest to win tonight.

ON

ingle(s) - Win Receipt No.: 31663599 
Bolton v Nottm Forest - Match (90 Minutes Play) 
Nottm Forest @ 3/1 
 
Stake: £25.00 (£25.00 x 1 line) 
Estimated Returns: £ 100.00 

[tikay]

My first tip on here.  I really fancy 2 home bankers in the lower leagues so I'm going to tip up a double:

League 1:  Notts Co v Walsall
Notts Co have started well, winning 3-2 at Crewe on the opening day and following up with a 2-0 win over Hartlepool.  Walsall on the other hand suffered a poor home reverse to Doncaster first up before recovering to get a 1-1 point at limited Oldham last night.  County are 5/6 with the high street bookies but I am hoping for evens when Betfair have the game up.

League 2: Oxford v Plymouth
Oxford have sprinted out of the blocks winning 2-0 at fancied Bristol Rovers before beating and equally fancied Southend by the same scoreline at home last night.  Plymouth started by losing 0-2 to an Aldershot team who were beaten at home themselves last night and then managed a 0-0 draw at Dagenham last night.  Oxford are 4/5 with the bookies.

My recommendation is a double on Notts Co and Oxford and I expect them both to win with something to spare.  Both teams will be aware of the benefits of a strong start after watching the promotion battles for their divisions from upper midtable last year.  They know a 9 point 100% start sends out a real message. 

With B365 a £100 stake gives a total return of £330.  I am hoping for even better with Befair.

Morning Mr Dung, & thanks for your first Fred tip.

Almost by tradition now, debutants get their first bet accepted, as we want to encourage a wider range of people putting stuff up & enjoying the thread, (in before "clique" acusations....), but we have a few problems with this one.

I don't do Doubles, or very very rarely, & only in exceptional cases. Others who follow the thread do, of course.

£100 is too much for this stage of the Season, we are proceeding gently until things settle down or exceptional value is spotted.

Finally - I'm not doing too good here! - I've been unable to achieve either "target" price.

You wanted Evens Notts Co, & would accept 5/6, but 4/5 is the best available right now.

You were hoping for 4/5 Oxford, currently best price 8/11.

The difference is very small, so are the bets, but I'm keen to try & hold our discipline, or Keef & Co get all shouty-wouty.

Do you still recommend the bet at those prices? If so, I'll have £25 on each, as singles.

Let me know, please.

[tikay]

Think we are up to date on that glut of football bets now.

Swansea v West Ham (Aaron) - we will not be proceeding with this - too much negative comment.

Northampton v Southend (Jim) -ON

Blackburn v Leicester (Brent) -  ON.

Bolton v Forest, (LuckyJim) - ON
 
Hazard Penalty, (horsey) - ON

Notts Co v Walsall, (Dung Beetle) - Still undecided.

Oxford v Plymouth, (Dung". Still undecided.

[TightEnd]

The picture. 48 years ago

Something to do with "Sole Power"?

Here's a clip for you anyway http://www.newsplayer.com/first-diesel-train-runs-on-uk-main-line-video

[tikay]

The picture. 48 years ago

Something to do with "Sole Power"?

Here's a clip for you anyway http://www.newsplayer.com/first-diesel-train-runs-on-uk-main-line-video

Nothing to do with Sole Power, no, though you were "warm" in one respect.

Completely unrelated, but at 23 seconds in, that piece of archive starts - but does not finish - a piece on the visit by Princess Elizabeth to Swindon Railway Works in 1953.

I'd give anyone who can find the rest of that clip (the visit to Swindon by Princess Elizabeth) a £25 free bet at my cost.

She did a "naming ceremony" of a Steam Locomotive - "Princess Elizabeth", & many photos appeared at the time of her on the footplate of the Loco, with the Fireman giving her the traditional verbal "right away mate", meaning, in railway lingo, "you are clear to proceed, Driver".

The Fireman was one James Anthony Kendall, aka Jimmy Kendall, my Dad. 

PS - The ITN Archive lists this video of her visit, but it is incorrectly tagged, & does not show the visit.

http://www.newsplayer.com/princess-elizabeth-visits-swindon-train-works-video

[Karabiner]

A few "ridiculous" names from the US golf spring to mind:

Frank Likliter
Fred Funk
Notah Begay