Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

should have mentioned it at the time but the ref for the chelsea game is absolutley ideal for our bet

[tikay]

Bated Breath is PP's enhanced text offer today.  8/1 £50 max.  A lay of ~ £73 @ 6.2 will lock up £20 for any winner.  The free £20 on Willie Wag Tail in the first 5/1 generally available.

Guessing yesterday's didn't get done so the first time offer is still valid.

If this sort of bet doesn't suit the portfolio... no probs will stop posting them.

All done!

Not sure how Mere will put all this on the Spready, but we have......

£50 @ 8/1, Bated Breath, 3.40 York, with PP, "Special Mobile Offer".

£73 LAY, Bated Breath, 3.40 York, Betfair, @ 6.2

We missed 5/1 for the "free" £20 (I assume that was your intention), but we managed £20 with Betfair on Willie Wagtail @ 5.8 in the 2pm @ York.

ON 

[tikay]

What exactly happened with Willie Wagtail about 2 furlongs out?

Came to win his race beautifully, then it all seemed to go wrong. Did not seem to be interfered with, but his head went in the air & he lost 2 lengths in a matter of strides.

EDIT - Strike that, he got squeezed. Seemed to make a lot of it, but was deffo left short of room. 

[TightEnd]

It's T20 Finals day tomorrow at a damp Cardiff

First thing to note that is that if no play is possible tomorrow, then Sunday is a spare day

However there is a clear preference to get the thing played tomorrow

The ECB has a clear financial motivation for this. No play, then you can reclaim a refund if you can't attend Sunday.

So, and there is a precedent in other finals days, they play reduced overs games (as low as 5 overs a side) to get it done in a day

As a measure of the potential cost of refunds, today's ODI is set to be cancelled at a cost of 17,000 x £60 in refunds

Av ticket prices for tomorrow are £50 http://www.glamorgancricket.com/detail-item.php?int_id=101&str_page_name=6 so a break in the weather is very sought by the organisers (and fans, who won't wantan extra night in the hotel, change travel arrangements etc etc)

Sussex play Yorkshire
Somerset play Hampshire

The winners play in the final

all on the same pitch

There is no bias in playing the semi first or second. In nine previous years 5 winners have played the first semi, four the semi. The favourite has come in twice out of nine finals, only

These are four good and well matched sides. Picking a winner on the assumption of full games in good weather is tough. Anyone can beat anyone, as Leicestershire showed last year

Best prices are

Sussex 9-4
Somerset 12-5
Hampshire 10-3
Yorkshire 7-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/friends-life-t20/winner

In what could be a lottery, in reduced overs, the clear value here is to back the outsider to come in

Yorkshire are a very good one day side. Big hitters in their team, to match the other teams..but at a bigger price.

At 7-2, for £20 (lots of elements up in the air preclude a bigger bet, and its for value not a "they are mispriced" bet) Yorkshire are the clear value proposition tomorrow

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

After reading your post about previous big priced winners at York and it being a sky day I am going to throw a few into the mix that I think might go well today.  You can back them as smallish e/w bets as I have but I am also going for gold and have taken them in an e/w lucky 15 as  a local independent offers 3.5x the odds for 1 winner only.

2:00 Tepmokea - back down and trip and now weighted at his last winning mark, it has C&D form and hails from a stable that know how to ready one for a big handicap.  The trainer jockey partnership have good stats as well. The jockey for an apprentice is doing ok and is well worth his 3lbs claim.  He has a strike rate of just under 16% but more significantly when teaming up with the Burke yard he has a closer to 17% strike rate.  There is still some 28/1 about with the firms just now I expect that it will go off a little shorter.

3:40 - The Nunthorpe is as competitive a sprint as you get, but at the prices in such a big field I automatically ruled the first 3 in the betting out.  If one of them manage to get there then good luck to them.  The horse that interests me in this race is Nocturnal Affair under the stewardship of Richard Hughes for whom everything just seems to be going well at the moment.  Had a decent career in South Africa before winning the Portland and then taking a handicap in Dubai, he has to improve a little to get involved here but has every chance in doing so. 

4:50 Normal Equilibrium won on debut but didn't do much at Bath on 2nd start, I got impression that the course never suited that day and he was challenging on the outside which in a sprint at that course is not easy to do.   He was 4th to 97 rated Liber who finished 4th at York Yesterday. On last run our boy improved but was forced out wide and finished not far behind Baracouda Boy who finished 7th yesterday behind Liber so I think he has to be worth a chance @ 16/1 and has the jockey who won on him first time up back in the saddle today.

The last leg of my lucky 15 is total "banzai" as you guys call it.  I have nothing to go on, it was a horse passed onto me from someone who's opinions I respect and all he said was "get on Sinsai 6:05 Hamilton" So I did @ 20/1 this morning its still available at 16/1 in a place but I don't think that's going to last too long. 

Thanks.

I missed the 2pm - luckily!

I need some other views on your selections in the 3.40 & 4.50, I don't know enough to make a decision.

We've had positive feedback on the Hamilton Banzai (each way) so we'll do that for small money shortly.

[horseplayer]

in the nunthorpe i dont have a bet but will be cheering on pearl secret for one of the best most understated trainers in the business

the fact he has made it clear how good he things this 3 yr old is quite a tip but its obviously a tough ask

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

After reading your post about previous big priced winners at York and it being a sky day I am going to throw a few into the mix that I think might go well today.  You can back them as smallish e/w bets as I have but I am also going for gold and have taken them in an e/w lucky 15 as  a local independent offers 3.5x the odds for 1 winner only.

2:00 Tepmokea - back down and trip and now weighted at his last winning mark, it has C&D form and hails from a stable that know how to ready one for a big handicap.  The trainer jockey partnership have good stats as well. The jockey for an apprentice is doing ok and is well worth his 3lbs claim.  He has a strike rate of just under 16% but more significantly when teaming up with the Burke yard he has a closer to 17% strike rate.  There is still some 28/1 about with the firms just now I expect that it will go off a little shorter.

3:40 - The Nunthorpe is as competitive a sprint as you get, but at the prices in such a big field I automatically ruled the first 3 in the betting out.  If one of them manage to get there then good luck to them.  The horse that interests me in this race is Nocturnal Affair under the stewardship of Richard Hughes for whom everything just seems to be going well at the moment.  Had a decent career in South Africa before winning the Portland and then taking a handicap in Dubai, he has to improve a little to get involved here but has every chance in doing so. 

4:50 Normal Equilibrium won on debut but didn't do much at Bath on 2nd start, I got impression that the course never suited that day and he was challenging on the outside which in a sprint at that course is not easy to do.   He was 4th to 97 rated Liber who finished 4th at York Yesterday. On last run our boy improved but was forced out wide and finished not far behind Baracouda Boy who finished 7th yesterday behind Liber so I think he has to be worth a chance @ 16/1 and has the jockey who won on him first time up back in the saddle today.

The last leg of my lucky 15 is total "banzai" as you guys call it.  I have nothing to go on, it was a horse passed onto me from someone who's opinions I respect and all he said was "get on Sinsai 6:05 Hamilton" So I did @ 20/1 this morning its still available at 16/1 in a place but I don't think that's going to last too long. 

[/b][/i]

I hesitated, & missed the price completely I'm afraid, as it is down to 10/1 now, so I think I'll give it a miss.

Good luck you though.

[Teacake]

Celtic are worth opposing again tomorrow after last weeks draw at Ross County.

Ledley and Kayal are confirmed out, Commons, Brown, Rogne and Samaras are all doubtful. Celtics focus is qualifying for the Champions League group stages (they will win the league anyway) and with the 2 nd leg of the qualifying round on Wednesday Neil Lennon won't risk any players who have knocks.

Last weeks performance at Ross County smacked of players with an eye on the CL in midweek and this could be similar at a ground where Celtic historically find it tough. Inverness are also unbeaten this season.

Recommend  £20 on Inverness at 6/1 with Laddies, Blue Sq or 365

[hector62]

I am not sure if you saw my previous post about the Pathe news clip about the Queens trip to Swindon so in case you did miss it I have re-posted it below.

http://www.swindonweb.com/index.asp?m=8&s=116&ss=344


You can watch it by clicking on the link below the picture of the Queen.

[tikay]

I am not sure if you saw my previous post about the Pathe news clip about the Queens trip to Swindon so in case you did miss it I have re-posted it below.

http://www.swindonweb.com/index.asp?m=8&s=116&ss=344


You can watch it by clicking on the link below the picture of the Queen.

Thanks hector.

Would you do me a favour?

Could you post that on my Diary, please?

I don't want to futher derail Fred, but you hit the absolute jackpot there, not once, but twice, & I'm absolutely made up. I'll respond further then, too.

Thank you.

[tikay]

Golf aside, our interest this evening is in the Bolton - Forest game, we have £25 on Forest @ 3/1, down to bookiebasher, aka "Lucky Jim".

[tikay]

Celtic are worth opposing again tomorrow after last weeks draw at Ross County.

Ledley and Kayal are confirmed out, Commons, Brown, Rogne and Samaras are all doubtful. Celtics focus is qualifying for the Champions League group stages (they will win the league anyway) and with the 2 nd leg of the qualifying round on Wednesday Neil Lennon won't risk any players who have knocks.

Last weeks performance at Ross County smacked of players with an eye on the CL in midweek and this could be similar at a ground where Celtic historically find it tough. Inverness are also unbeaten this season.

Recommend  £20 on Inverness at 6/1 with Laddies, Blue Sq or 365

Thanks.

That fits the Midi-Banzai bill perfectly, we have £20 with Ladbrokes @ 6/1, Inverness to beat Celtic.

ON

Selection6/1 - Inverness CT

EventInverness CT v Celtic Scottish

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Inverness CT
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £140.00
Time: 24/08/12 19:45
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000106

[tikay]

It's T20 Finals day tomorrow at a damp Cardiff

First thing to note that is that if no play is possible tomorrow, then Sunday is a spare day

However there is a clear preference to get the thing played tomorrow

The ECB has a clear financial motivation for this. No play, then you can reclaim a refund if you can't attend Sunday.

So, and there is a precedent in other finals days, they play reduced overs games (as low as 5 overs a side) to get it done in a day

As a measure of the potential cost of refunds, today's ODI is set to be cancelled at a cost of 17,000 x £60 in refunds

Av ticket prices for tomorrow are £50 http://www.glamorgancricket.com/detail-item.php?int_id=101&str_page_name=6 so a break in the weather is very sought by the organisers (and fans, who won't wantan extra night in the hotel, change travel arrangements etc etc)

Sussex play Yorkshire
Somerset play Hampshire

The winners play in the final

all on the same pitch

There is no bias in playing the semi first or second. In nine previous years 5 winners have played the first semi, four the semi. The favourite has come in twice out of nine finals, only

These are four good and well matched sides. Picking a winner on the assumption of full games in good weather is tough. Anyone can beat anyone, as Leicestershire showed last year

Best prices are

Sussex 9-4
Somerset 12-5
Hampshire 10-3
Yorkshire 7-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/friends-life-t20/winner

In what could be a lottery, in reduced overs, the clear value here is to back the outsider to come in

Yorkshire are a very good one day side. Big hitters in their team, to match the other teams..but at a bigger price.

At 7-2, for £20 (lots of elements up in the air preclude a bigger bet, and its for value not a "they are mispriced" bet) Yorkshire are the clear value proposition tomorrow

Thanks Rich.

Thats a very original angle!

Looks "value", too, so we have gone with your suggestion, & have £20 @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes, Yorkshire to win the T20 @ Cardiff tomorrow.

ON

 Selection7/2 - Yorkshire

Event2012 Friends Life T20 English

MarketCup winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Yorkshire
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £90.00
Time: 24/08/12 19:50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000107

[tikay]

oooh, Forest go 1-0 up!

[tikay]

Bugger.

1-1 now.