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[Fellaini85]

Anyone feel this move for Everton has gone too far now?

yes

I have to agree, whilst I expect a victory tonight, 1.62 seems very short. Newcastle clearly have a lot of injuries, but we are also missing an important player in Gibson,whose been excellent since he joined and fits the system very well. Neville will most likely return to centre mid, but doesn't have the composure or passing ability of Gibson, so thats definitely a negative.

With all the value been sucked out of the Everton price, ppl looking for a bet could do a lot worse than take a look at Boylesports new anytime assist market.

They are 9/2 about a Leighton Baines anytime assist, he has 33 assists in the last four seasons(139 games), which is 23%....Im no expert, but I think this makes it close to a bet.

But there maybe reasons to think his chances of gaining an assist maybe slightly better than normal due to two factors:

1/ Newcastle are missing their usual right back in Simpson, so this may mean Perch or possibly Anita play there. So this should allow him to attack a defender, who is clearly not first choice.
2/ Gibson usually takes all the corners from one side(baines the other), but with him out injured either him(or possibly osman) will take them.

So in short, he is our best attacking outlet who will take all free kicks, most of the corners and will be looked upon to get forward as much as possible. The market expects us to win, and Ive noted the over 2.5 market has been well backed.

[The Camel]

Anyone feel this move for Everton has gone too far now?

This is very close to being a max lay for me.

Everton are a ridiculous price.

If this match was a Saturday afternoon, all other factors being the same, the price would be at least 10 spots bigger imo. Maybe even as large as 1.8.

The time has come to bet like men.

Recommend Lay Everton for £250 @ 1.63

[Dubai]

Agree with above. Ridiculous price now

[DungBeetle]

It does seem a very short price for an upper mid table team against another upper mid table team.  Evens seems fair to me.  I fancy Everton to win, but the value play has to be laying them.

[The Camel]

It does seem a very short price for an upper mid table team against another upper mid table team.  Evens seems fair to me.  I fancy Everton to win, but the value play has to be laying them.

Think Evens would be right if Newcastle didn't have an injury crisis.

Which they do.

No Collocini (who pleno thinks is the second coming of Bobby Moore), Krul (Harper is undoubtedly a big drop off here) or Chiote (who everyone seems to love, but I think he's overrated - whatever)

I think 1.8, maybe 1.75 is justifiable.

1.62 is a complete jopke.

[horseplayer]

whilst i agree in principle

harper was really awful in his brief spell at brighton

massive massive worry for me

[The Camel]

whilst i agree in principle

harper was really awful in his brief spell at brighton

massive massive worry for me

Meh. I think "really awful" is a massive overstatement.

I was following Brighton's fortunes pretty closely last season and while he was definitely to blame for a couple of goals they conceded he still performed well enough that they wanted to sign him permanently.

He turned them down I believe.

He's not as good as Krul obv, but I would still put him in the top half of back up Prem goalkeepers.

[horseplayer]

whilst i agree in principle

harper was really awful in his brief spell at brighton

massive massive worry for me

Meh. I think "really awful" is a massive overstatement.

I was following Brighton's fortunes pretty closely last season and while he was definitely to blame for a couple of goals they conceded he still performed well enough that they wanted to sign him permanently.

He turned them down I believe.

He's not as good as Krul obv, but I would still put him in the top half of back up Prem goalkeepers.

i must have been watching different brighton games to yourself, he looked slow and unable to react quick enough

i would agree at one time he was in the top half of back up premier keepers not for me now.

The issue of signing him on a full time deal was never a goer anyway as he wouldnt move from the north east for another premier side let alone championship.

[The Camel]

whilst i agree in principle

harper was really awful in his brief spell at brighton

massive massive worry for me

Meh. I think "really awful" is a massive overstatement.

I was following Brighton's fortunes pretty closely last season and while he was definitely to blame for a couple of goals they conceded he still performed well enough that they wanted to sign him permanently.

He turned them down I believe.

He's not as good as Krul obv, but I would still put him in the top half of back up Prem goalkeepers.

i must have been watching different brighton games to yourself, he looked slow and unable to react quick enough

i would agree at one time he was in the top half of back up premier keepers not for me now.

The issue of signing him on a full time deal was never a goer anyway as he wouldnt move from the north east for another premier side let alone championship.

The point I was trying to make was that Gus Poyet thought he was good enough, despite a couple of errors.

I trust his opinion on the merits of a player over mine and yours

[horseplayer]

whilst i agree in principle

harper was really awful in his brief spell at brighton

massive massive worry for me

Meh. I think "really awful" is a massive overstatement.

I was following Brighton's fortunes pretty closely last season and while he was definitely to blame for a couple of goals they conceded he still performed well enough that they wanted to sign him permanently.

He turned them down I believe.

He's not as good as Krul obv, but I would still put him in the top half of back up Prem goalkeepers.

i must have been watching different brighton games to yourself, he looked slow and unable to react quick enough

i would agree at one time he was in the top half of back up premier keepers not for me now.

The issue of signing him on a full time deal was never a goer anyway as he wouldnt move from the north east for another premier side let alone championship.

The point I was trying to make was that Gus Poyet thought he was good enough, despite a couple of errors.

I trust his opinion on the merits of a player over mine and yours

I dont think anybody in football would doubt he was/is a better keeper than Brezovan

[redarmi]

The chances of Harper making a mistake that Krul wouldn't that leads to a goal is more than compensated for in the price.  Like Keith said everything being equal the fair price would have been evens and this is reflected in Hills opener of 10-11.  We all know Newcastle have injuries and that needs to be factored in so the only question is what should that be.  Evens to 4/5 is a difference of 5.55% in probabilities or 0.2 goals in supremacy which seems about right to me (maybe even slightly overblown)....for the "correct" price to be 4/6 it would be a 10% difference or 0.4 in goal supremacy.  It means that the number of goals Everton are in for in this game has increased from 1.75 to 1.95 .....does Collocini and Krul being out really mean they concede 11.4% goals in this individual game when they don't play?  I just can't see the difference being anything like as close as that.  I could ramble on about goals to shots and shots on target ratios but i will spare you all.....suffice to say there would probably need to be a shot in the game that Krul would have saved that Harper won't which seems a ridic assumption to me.
 

[horseplayer]

this probably has no relevance but anyway ill throw it out there

"Everton v Newcastle From baines's last 10 prem yellow cards 3 have been against newc Booked in 3 out of last 4 against newc"

[Karabiner]

this probably has no relevance but anyway ill throw it out there

"Everton v Newcastle From baines's last 10 prem yellow cards 3 have been against newc Booked in 3 out of last 4 against newc"

Joey Barton got a lot of guys yellow cards..

[The Camel]

Where's MereNovice got to?

[sovietsong]

1.59 now...