Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

this is setting me up for a massive fall

there is a bet available tonight which is 4-7 with William hill (most booking points valencia)

Bayern Munich v CF Valencia Bookings Points Match Bet Betting Odds

Reasoning

since the manager has been there in games played at home in the champions league bayern have "lost" the bookings market in 23 games from 27 (2 drawn 2 won)

Valencia have "won" the bookings match bet in all 4 la liga game this season (quite heavily)


what should the price be ? i would suggest about 2-7

what should the bank bet? i will leave that upto you

How on earth do you find bets like that?!

I much dislike long odds-on, but that looks irresistible.

Thanks.

We have £70 @ 4/7 with Wm Hill, Valencia to have most booking points tonight v Bayern.

ON

19 Sep 2012 - Bayern Munich v Valencia - Most Booking Points

Tip ItValencia @ 4/7

Stake : £70.00
Estimated Returns : £110.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000080/F

i remember from last season bayern often picked up very few bookings and worked from there


"I much dislike long odds-on, but that looks irresistible.
"

odds on is fine as long as you perceive it be value much like i do here

cue bayern ending up with 8 men

[tikay]

The sixes are flying in now, though it may be a little late.

Three so far, I think.

[AndrewT]

ONE MORE SIX NEEDED.

[tikay]

Make that 4 sixes......

We just need one more, I think.

[tikay]

Bugger, Nabi was our big hope.

[AceHighSuited]

sky 168 to see rangers struggling to win a penalty shout out

surreal stuff

Its not Rangers though.  Well not as I understand it.  Surreal nonetheless.

[Horneris]

Back into this thread.

Sheffield Wednesday to beat Huddersfield @ EVS.

Sheffield Wednesday have won both games at home and on our travels we haven't been that far away, even though we got hammered at Brighton on Friday. We are creating plenty of chances and only one game have we not scored, even though we had a few chances. I'd say we are likely to score here and with lack of strikers at Huddersfield, it might be a possibility that we don't need to score that many tonight.

Also, we seem to be doing amazingly well at home and Huddersfield haven't won away yet. I also think we have a full team to pick from, not 100% sure about Huddersfield.

I think we just have a better team than Huddersfield, but with home advantage will be a massive advantage for us. We also picked up 4 points of them last season.

No value in Wednesday @ evens

[tikay]

Stan James have now eased Chelsea back to 8/5.

Timing is all......

[kukushkin88]

Back into this thread.

Sheffield Wednesday to beat Huddersfield @ EVS.

Sheffield Wednesday have won both games at home and on our travels we haven't been that far away, even though we got hammered at Brighton on Friday. We are creating plenty of chances and only one game have we not scored, even though we had a few chances. I'd say we are likely to score here and with lack of strikers at Huddersfield, it might be a possibility that we don't need to score that many tonight.

Also, we seem to be doing amazingly well at home and Huddersfield haven't won away yet. I also think we have a full team to pick from, not 100% sure about Huddersfield.

I think we just have a better team than Huddersfield, but with home advantage will be a massive advantage for us. We also picked up 4 points of them last season.

No value in Wednesday @ evens

Aaron doesn´t seem to have got his head around value yet, he just thinks it´ll win. Agree no value at all at EVS.

[aaron1867]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

[redarmi]

Aaron - do you know the definition of value from a betting perspective

[AceHighSuited]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

Eh?

There are plenty of times when betting an odds-on shot is value. 

Do you understand the terminology of value?

[tikay]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

Hi Aaron,

Thanks for the tip.

We pretty much ALL agree that Weds should win tonight - but that is not the point.

The thing is the price. If it is an even-money shot in a perfect market, we need (say) 5/4 or better. The difference is the value

Odds-On is fine - we are quite happy with 4/6 if the "correct" price is 1/2.

If we think a team will lose, but the price is way too big - then we should bet it. Because of the value

[anthonyl]

Back into this thread.

Sheffield Wednesday to beat Huddersfield @ EVS.

Also, we seem to be doing amazingly well at home and Huddersfield haven't won away yet. I also think we have a full team to pick from, not 100% sure about Huddersfield.

I think we just have a better team than Huddersfield, but with home advantage will be a massive advantage for us. We also picked up 4 points of them last season.

Hudders not conceded in the first half all season, priced about right. Hudders got a decent first 11 and Vaughan is not a bad replacement for Rhodes either. Fwiw you actually looked okay last Friday, just missing two decent centre backs, and a powerful centre mid.

[AceHighSuited]

Just seen the Celtic starting XI Tikay, I think i would most definitely be against them now.  I think Neil Lennon has got this one very wrong.  I hope I am wrong as I have had a rather chunky bet for me on this one.