Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 Don't like totally spoil the fun as I love Amla and he could easily be value to be Mom. I'm just not sure that your logic is right. Isn't the Mom bet essentially just a treble?...

 Amla to score the most runs (hard for him to be Mom if he doesn't do that) 11/4

 South Africa to win (possibly slightly correlated) 1/12

 Nobody else to do anything more worthy of being Mom given that 1+2 have happened (hard to price up).

 Number 3 has to be a bet at 1/4 for the Mom bet to be the same as betting him for best batsman and to bet him you'd have to make it shorter than 1/4.

 I hope that made sense. Think my logic is right.

[tikay]

Hi Hector - do you not think it is worth taking the bowlers out of the equation and having Amla at 11/4?  It only takes the Zims to be unable to handle a few overs of Steyn or Morkel, or for the Zims to set a target of 100 and you have no chance of Amla getting MOM?  At least if just top bat and they are chasing a small target it will be a match bet between Amla and Levi?

That thought crossed my mind - if Steyn or Morkel get an 8-fer or whatever, we are stone cold dead.

What price is Amla to be Top SA Batter, or plain "Top Batter" I wonder.

I pretty much back hector's stuff "blind", & will likely do this one, too, but I'm interested in chewing the cud on it first on this occasion.

[DungBeetle]

"Isn't the Mom bet essentially just a treble?..."

I think it's a quadruple - you also need some kind of price for the conditional outcome of if Zimbabwe chose to bat they get at least 100 runs?

If they get skittled for 80, Amla won't get man of the match for a 40 under no pressure.  It will go to the guy who got 3 wickets with a good economy rate.

[Bad Beat]

 Good point Dung. I reckon it's unlikely that 6 firms can price this up, five of them (including Hills and Laddies) can come to 5/1 (B365 11/2), and that it can still be a rick (+ev).

 11/4 top bat does stick out a little though. Price is 3.55-4.4 on Betfair. Could be a bet.

[DungBeetle]

I like top bat price as well.

If SAF bat first they will aim to anchor the innings around Amla.  If they chase a mediocre total the other opener Levi is a pinch hitter who normally goes hard and fast and then gets out, so Amla will probably guide them home eventually overtaking Levi and the likes of Kallis/De Villiers won't have the time to catch him up.

3/1 seems a decent price given the above scenarios.

[AceHighSuited]

I am quite interested in taking on Liverpool tonight in the Europa league.  They were very lucky to get passed an average Hearts side and I would say YBC were better than Hearts.

They have a few players I like who will no doubt see this competition as a chance to show of their talents to other clubs, furthermore its unlikely that Liverpool will play a full strength team given they have a game against Manchester on Sunday.  

I think if you can get the 2/1 on Betfair then its a decent opportunity to make money.

A player I am looking forward to seeing is Raúl Bobadilla who can be backed @ 8/1 as FGS, but the bet I like here is anytime scorer @ 3/1.

I'm open to hearing the thoughts of others on both these bets.  I think they are correlated though, if YBC are to win they need to score their most likely chance of goals comes from Bobadilla.

[tikay]

I like top bat price as well.

If SAF bat first they will aim to anchor the innings around Amla.  If they chase a mediocre total the other opener Levi is a pinch hitter who normally goes hard and fast and then gets out, so Amla will probably guide them home eventually overtaking Levi and the likes of Kallis/De Villiers won't have the time to catch him up.

3/1 seems a decent price given the above scenarios.

Perhaps (3/1, Amla Top Batter), but hector felt 11/4 was poor value for this.

A really intriguing bet this MOM thing, as most of hector's are, he really does that Charlie Munger "obverse" thing. 

[AndrewT]

Do the MOM odds change when the toss is made generally in cricket matches?

For yesterday's Afghan/India game, the toss made a difference to our 'most sixes' bet, but only one firm changed their prices to take account of it, two left them unchanged and the rest took the market down.

Is there scope to wait for the toss and then snap back Amla if it favours us, or will the prices get taken down/changed?

[bookiebasher]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

[tikay]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

Jimbo!

What a spot that is.....

Sample size is ludicrous, but I really like the thinking, & we'd only need one from the three to get home & we'd be in blue-ville.

[tikay]

Do the MOM odds change when the toss is made generally in cricket matches?

For yesterday's Afghan/India game, the toss made a difference to our 'most sixes' bet, but only one firm changed their prices to take account of it, two left them unchanged and the rest took the market down.

Is there scope to wait for the toss and then snap back Amla if it favours us, or will the prices get taken down/changed?

In my limited experience, a lot of the firms remove the markets when the toss has taken place. I know I've tried to get on minutes before the start of a Test Match, & the Market has been closed. It then re-opens (adjusted, presumably) for in-running stuff.

[Dubai]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

Jimbo!

What a spot that is.....

Sample size is ludicrous, but I really like the thinking, & we'd only need one from the three to get home & we'd be in blue-ville.

9-2 for all 3 games to have both teams scoring Tony!! Not each one- works out avg price of 1.765

[typhoon13]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

But can we trust a Bookie!!!

Watch he does not restrict you Tony

[bookiebasher]

Had meant to put that obviously small sample size and a few other points but keep getting
distracted by punters wanting 50p f/csts on virtual racing .

Betfred offer 300-1 for 10 matches BTS and its been close in the championship a couple of times
this season.

Corals/hills/ladbrokes price up individually so for example this week c.palace , leics , birmingham pays 11-2
with corals but other teams prices are far worse.

Betfred have a bonus coupon where its a set price for any number of matches.

[TightEnd]

I went back and did a bit of research on the Championship on goals trends, cognisant as I was of lots of goals this year, funky 3-5 scorelines and a more attacking attitude on show from many

In the first six games of last season the 24 teams scored 186 goals

In the first six games of this season the 24 teams have scored 210 goals

Is this statistically significant? Is it the start of a trend?

Not sure yet, but bookiebasher could be on the right lines

I watch a lot of Championship football, and in addition to the usual bad teams you get in any season its begining to be my opinion that defensive talent and schemes just do not match up to strikeforces in this league

Genuinely, any team can beat any other in the division on their day, and this tends to encourage managers not to stick 11 behind the goal and go for a point. You hardly ever see it in the division, whereas 3-4 years ago you'd see (to pick one) Millwall go to (to pick one) Leicester play 4-5-1 and not do a lot.

You've also got scorers like Cox, Sordell, CMS, Jordan Rhodes, Thomas Ince that in other years might have been playing higher, but are in the Championship as the PL squads have lots more depth across the board now