2012 UCI Road Cycling World Championships, Valkenburg in the Netherlands.
Sunday 23rd September Elite Men Road Race. 267km. Weather forecast, dry.
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The route this year favours riders who can ride the Classics. Crucially the finish will about 1.5km after the Cauberg climb where the Amstel Gold Race finishes each year. Over 200 riders, narrow roads & with teams attacking from the get go, it’s a difficult & unpredictable race to predict.
A quick review of some of the fancied riders. Spain & Belgium look to have the strongest teams.
Philippe Gilbert (Belgium) is favourite. Primarily from having won two Amstel races. But this year has been a lean year for wins compared to 2011 where he was picking up victories with ease. Two stage wins in the Vuelta suggest his form is returning. Price too short & not a bet for me anyway as the finish after the Cauberg is too long for him imo.
Tom Boonen (Belgium) currently 3rd in the UCI World Tour Rankings behind Wiggins & Rodriguez. Winner in this years Tour of Flanders & Paris-Roubaix. He has been training on the route in a race simulation behind a motor bike. Price of 18/1 or there about is fine.
The Spanish team are packed with lead riders. Valverde, Contador, Freire, Rodriguez & Sanchez. Parcours suits Valverde. Not writing them off, but too many chiefs.
Italian team are young & strong, with a focus on lead rider Vincenzo Nibali. Inexperience & no radios will make it hard to control the race.
Peter Sagan (Slovakia), has had a cracking year, but fear his form has dropped since the TdF. Lack of a team doesn’t help his chances. In a recent interview he did not consider himself a favourite.
Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway), Simon Gerrans (Australia) & John Degenkolb (Germany) all have the ability to feature, but I have some reservations.
Not for Fred, but my banzai bet. Tejay van Garderen, average season spent as apprentice to Cadel Evans at BMC Racing. Impressed at the TdF. A few interviews have hinted that he may have targeted the Worlds & has kept a low profile. A strong time trialer (4th here at the Worlds) & also good on the climbs. A breakthrough ride on the world stage is due. 200/1 is available (May be I’m missing something but I would have him in the 50/1 region).
http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/uci-world-championships/mens-road-race/winnerApologies for the long way of getting there
but after a weeks pondering & dithering...
Recommend: £10.00 Tom Boonen 18/1. 
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