Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

"Don't like the Tranmere bet at all.  I think Brentford are quite a lot better than their rceord suggests and are under rated by the market."

Hi Camel - out of interest if you think Brentford are under rated what would you say is a fair price on Tranmere at home?

I am stuggling to see how they could ever be any bigger than evens given that they are W6D2L0 and Brentford have yet to win on their travels, whatever we think of Brentford's talent in the ranks?

I was thinking of having a bit of a lump on this one, but happy to be dissauded.

Dung

[DungBeetle]

Great stuff Neil - please continue when you have time.

[The Camel]

To take you back to ancient history I used to be a trader at City Index for the sports side of the business. I started in 1997 and in 2001 I switched to IG Index. When I started there was no such thing as the internet as far as we and most of our punters were concerned.

 When trading a sports market we would essentially come up with guesses and let the punters decide higher or lower. Both of these firms were quite conservative and risk averse and they would move prices quickly to try and arrive at a market price. One technique you could employ as a trader would be to be a jobber...

...You might set England 1st innings runs at 300-320 and somebody would buy £50. You would then move to 310-330 and another few people would buy a total of £50. The price would move to 320-340 and now a guy would sell £100. you would have no risk and you would have "jobbed" £500. Very nice work if you can get it. To do this you need to be a great reader of markets, the thing you are betting on needs to be liquid - you need enough customers that you can see action whenever you move the price.

 At IG particularly our boss was very happy to see good jobbing. He didn't want any nasty old risk. However when the guy who sold for £100 was sent a cheque after another amazing England collapse there would be a stewards enquiry. It would be pointed out that all those that bought have losing accounts and they are all massive ice-creams whereas that one guy, (we'll call him Tommy Boom), is a massive winner and he shouldn't have had such a big bet. It would be mentioned that he is only to be given £10 bets on runs from now on.

 Next time England open 300-320 we would have buyers up to 320-340 and Mr Boom would be restricted to selling £10 at 320. We would now be more confident in our approach and move to 310-330 again where we would accomodate another load of ice creams. At this stage we'd be cheering with Mr Boom but we knew that even if England declared for 600 we were safe from the sack as we were simply following the sharp money.

How many bets after you restricted him did Mr Boom have before he started buying the runs with his account and then waited til the market went with his bet and then sold on all his friends accounts?

[The Camel]

"Don't like the Tranmere bet at all.  I think Brentford are quite a lot better than their rceord suggests and are under rated by the market."

Hi Camel - out of interest if you think Brentford are under rated what would you say is a fair price on Tranmere at home?

I am stuggling to see how they could ever be any bigger than evens given that they are W6D2L0 and Brentford have yet to win on their travels, whatever we think of Brentford's talent in the ranks?

I was thinking of having a bit of a lump on this one, but happy to be dissauded.

Dung

The fact that Tranmere are on fire and 6-2-0 is known by the whole market though...

Where we have a small edge is that we know there is no chance there will be money for Brentford from one of the biggest players in the market.

The current Betfair price (albeit to tiny stakes) is 2.1 and that looks right to me. (ie EV neutral)

Now, if Tranmere get punted into < 2.0 I think there will be value in laying them (or Backing Brentford)

[ACE2M]

great stuff Neil.

[DungBeetle]

"The fact that Tranmere are on fire and 6-2-0 is known by the whole market though"

Every result for every team is known by the whole market.  By that reckoning all prices will be perfect.  However, prices are subjective, so my contention is that the bookies have yet to rate Tranmere sufficiently despite the evidence on the the pitch for the season so far where they have scored freely and kept a number of clean sheets at home.

Put it this way - would you rather be on Tranmere at evens, or odds on home shots Bolton, Forest, Bournemouth and Sheff Utd, all of whom have been inconsistent.  Now it could be that Tranmere are the right price and the others are too short, but I think it's more likely that Tranmere are still being ranked on their lower midtable outlook at the start of the season.  I'd suggest they are more than that now and the bookies haven't adjusted.

Anyhow, opinions and all that.

[AndrewT]

Awesome stuff Neil - great read.

[The Camel]

"The fact that Tranmere are on fire and 6-2-0 is known by the whole market though"

Every result for every team is known by the whole market.  By that reckoning all prices will be perfect.  However, prices are subjective, so my contention is that the bookies have yet to rate Tranmere sufficiently despite the evidence on the the pitch for the season so far where they have scored freely and kept a number of clean sheets at home.

Put it this way - would you rather be on Tranmere at evens, or odds on home shots Bolton, Forest, Bournemouth and Sheff Utd, all of whom have been inconsistent.  Now it could be that Tranmere are the right price and the others are too short, but I think it's more likely that Tranmere are still being ranked on their lower midtable outlook at the start of the season.  I'd suggest they are more than that now and the bookies haven't adjusted.

Anyhow, opinions and all that.

Disagree mate.

In thousands of betting shops all over the country punters will turn up on Saturday morning to have their accas.

In hand they have the current league table and 6 match form guide, which will glean them an advantage from those bastard bookies.

They see a team top of the league and having won their last 3 at home to a team yet to win on their travels and in mid table.

The one is inevitably going to go the appropriate box.

Bookmakers know this and as such the price is going to be a good deal shorter than it should be, because they know the ice cream money is only going to go one way.

We know two things: 1 Brentford are undoubtedly better than their position/form suggests. 2, one of the biggest players in the market cannot back Brentford even if he thinks they are the bet of the century.

I think the chances of Tranmere being a value bet are remote in the extreme.

[The Camel]

Don't let me put you off the bet mate.

Opinions are like arseholes, everyone has got one.

It's my opinion that Tranmere won't be value, that is not the same thing as saying Tranmere won't be value.

I could well be wrong.

It happened once, 1998 I think it was.

[DungBeetle]

I'll have a think.  Good debate anyway.

Any views on my other one - Sunderland?  I am already on Brighton and the mighty Barnsley.

[The Camel]

I'll have a think.  Good debate anyway.

Any views on my other one - Sunderland?  I am already on Brighton and the mighty Barnsley.

When I priced this up, I tentaively put in evens Sunderland, but thought they could easily be a shade of odds on.

At face value 11/10 looks a gift, but they have been friendless so far (having opened around 1.9).

I'd want to know the reason for the drift. Possible they will play a full strength side tonight, while Wigan have a history of playing second stringers in the League Cup.

[redarmi]

"The fact that Tranmere are on fire and 6-2-0 is known by the whole market though"

Every result for every team is known by the whole market.  By that reckoning all prices will be perfect.  However, prices are subjective, so my contention is that the bookies have yet to rate Tranmere sufficiently despite the evidence on the the pitch for the season so far where they have scored freely and kept a number of clean sheets at home.

Put it this way - would you rather be on Tranmere at evens, or odds on home shots Bolton, Forest, Bournemouth and Sheff Utd, all of whom have been inconsistent.  Now it could be that Tranmere are the right price and the others are too short, but I think it's more likely that Tranmere are still being ranked on their lower midtable outlook at the start of the season.  I'd suggest they are more than that now and the bookies haven't adjusted.

Anyhow, opinions and all that.

Don't want to labour the point but there is a lot more to a price than the results of the teams and the only way you will be able to win in the long term is to look into those things that are not as obvious as the results.  Those basic stats sch as recent form, league positions etc will always be accurately priced.  Bookies have a 8-10% margin in their prices so they have to be very bad at doing this most basic of tasks for you to have an advantage over them.  There is the odd occasion when bookmakers price a game before midweek action for a weekend and that midweek result can lead to some value especially early in the season but beyond that I would suggest that just being in possession of the results of a team is never enough to have a positive expectation betting football.

[hector62]

This is the situation regarding our 6's bet in the T20 after the group stage - we have backed Australia.

Pakistan           12
NewZealand     12
England           11
West Indies      11
Australia            9
India                 5
Sri Lanka           3
South Africa      3

[TightEnd]

T20WC Report

Pakistan bowled appallingly on a quick wicket in Pallekelle

Bangladesh bowled worse

The Super 8 line up is set

Sri Lanka, England, New Zealand and the West Indies play their group oop North in Pallekelle. Where it has not rained for 8 months. It's quick, and should suit England. In theory the easier group but the West Indies and New Zealand are both a touch under-rated

South Africa, India, Pakistan and Australia are in rainy Colombo. The tougher group, on paper. Impossible to pick two from that heat.

Each play the other in the group once, top two in each to the semi finals

We begin on thursday with

11:00   Sri Lanka (8/13)   New Zealand (6/4)      
14:30   England (18/19)   West Indies (1)

Overall market for the winner?

South Africa 9/2
India 5/1
Sri Lanka 11/2
Pakistan 6
Australia 13/2
West Indies 7
England 7
New Zealand 14

e/w 1/3 top 2

I've bolded the bottom 3 in the betting because one of the three is making the semi's, possibly two of three, them being in the same group

In such a random mean reverting format, there is value in those three, but which?

I'm thinking the West Indies who bat big and have one of the top 3 or 4 spinners in it too for the later stages

Interested in thoughts, though, from everyone....


Going into the Super 8 s we have a running total of -£20

and £102.20 forward invested

Green = live. Red = Life Support

Kohli top batsman at 16-1 £20 at 16-1. Current runs 90  Now 5-1 second favourite



MalingaTop Sri Lanka Bowler £40 at 15/8 Current wickets 2 trailing Mendis who has 6 Now 9-2 second favourite



Australia to score most sixes £20 at 11-2 Current total 9 of 87 in the tournament  No market currently available



T20WC - batsman with most sixes   Dilshan e/w   80/1   12.2
T20WC - batsman with most sixes   Dilshan e/w   66/1   10

current sixes Zero current price No market currently available




We have work to do, team.





I am pondering the West Indies at 7's given the make up of the groups for a run at an outright winner....

[ripple11]

This is the situation regarding our 6's bet in the T20 after the group stage - we have backed Australia.

Pakistan           12
NewZealand     12
England           11
West Indies      11
Australia            9
India                 5
Sri Lanka           3
South Africa      3

considering they chased a smallish Ireland total, and only batted 9 overs in the second match, .....not too bad.