Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Todays pitch report Mr T?

Yup, we await the Tighty Pitch Preview.

I can almost imagine him on Sky Sports, microphone in hand, giving forth on his view of how the pitch will play, Boycott style.

[TightEnd]

Todays pitch report Mr T?

No specifics this morning

I was waylaid pondering the similarities between the Dallas Cowboys offense and a Teflon frying pan until about 5am

Both matches are at Premadasa. 150 is a decent score as it tends to be slow and takes some spin

[TightEnd]

For anyone watch did not the QPR - West Ham match last night, it had some odd make-ups.

It was a regular London derby, not dirty, a little bit of niggle, but less than you might expect, with a few mistimed tackles flying on a greasy pitch, though not much malicious stuff.

By the time it ended, West Ham had collected EIGHT yellow cards, & QPR 2 yellows & 1 red.

The Referee was one Mr Clattenburg. Does he have a history of that sort of thing? If so, is it usually "in the price"?

The Corner make-up was interesting too, if you follow that sort of thing. I had checked the history of both Teams, & neither suggested a high number of corners was likely. The first half had eight, & the 2nd half 9 or 10, I believe, which is way above expectation.

Only stats geeks need reply.

Clattenburg is a preening peacock. Not my favourite.

Cards make up like that is certainly never in the price

In 12 seasons officiating Clattenburg has never averaged more than 3.95 yellows and 0.26 reds per game, so a red every 4 games or so

In the last three seasons in the top division he's been a touch more lenient than that

2.5,3.08 and 3.19 yellow per game averages

So yesterday was an outlier

As any team that gets over seven cards in the match is automatically fined, this means Messrs Gold and Sullivan the West Ham owners have to hand over some dosh.

Not sure if you saw them last night, one in fur, one in sheepskin, flanking a blonde lady in the front row?

Not my favourite football owners in a not exactly shining firmament of same.

[Acidmouse]

Are the baseball bets on here long term profit? I just don't get how betting odds on in individual games is profitable on Mlb, so so many teams around .500 mark.

[TightEnd]

Tony Fernandes doesn't sound like he is going to pull the managerial change trigger

Tony Fernandes ‏@tonyfernandes

Keep calm. 6 games does not make a season. I have learnt from many wise chairman

Tony Fernandes ‏@tonyfernandes

Mark will sort it out. Look at his record. We would have won if we didn't go down to 10. I am relaxed and ... http://m.tmi.me/xBsi5



(personally, I think he is a touch sanguine. Don't think they win if they keep 11 on the pitch)

[TightEnd]

Are the baseball bets on here long term profit? I just don't get how betting odds on in individual games is profitable on Mlb, so so many teams around .500 mark.

£253 profit, ROI 27.5% on 20 bets

Not a big enough sample to claim long term profitability, however Singhee has a good record at spotting favourable match ups (pitchers)

[Tal]

Fred favourite Danedream has pulled out of Sunday's Prix due l'Arc de Triomphe.

I assume the markets have already adjusted but is there anything we can do here?

[DungBeetle]

"The Referee was one Mr Clattenburg. Does he have a history of that sort of thing?"

I was at Vicarage Road the day a Reading chap headed the ball WIDE and and went out for a goal kick before another reading striker hooked it back into play.

And Clattenburgh awarded................a goal.

For anyone who hasn't seen it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0YiuSbBdaQ

[tikay]

Fred favourite Danedream has pulled out of Sunday's Prix due l'Arc de Triomphe.

I assume the markets have already adjusted but is there anything we can do here?

I doubt that, the news spread very fast, though I thought the reason was pretty unusual!

Quarantined due to another horse in the stable contracting equine infectious anaemia, aka EIA or swamp fever of all things.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equine_infectious_anemia

[tikay]

For anyone watch did not the QPR - West Ham match last night, it had some odd make-ups.

It was a regular London derby, not dirty, a little bit of niggle, but less than you might expect, with a few mistimed tackles flying on a greasy pitch, though not much malicious stuff.

By the time it ended, West Ham had collected EIGHT yellow cards, & QPR 2 yellows & 1 red.

The Referee was one Mr Clattenburg. Does he have a history of that sort of thing? If so, is it usually "in the price"?

The Corner make-up was interesting too, if you follow that sort of thing. I had checked the history of both Teams, & neither suggested a high number of corners was likely. The first half had eight, & the 2nd half 9 or 10, I believe, which is way above expectation.

Only stats geeks need reply.

Clattenburg is a preening peacock. Not my favourite.

Cards make up like that is certainly never in the price

In 12 seasons officiating Clattenburg has never averaged more than 3.95 yellows and 0.26 reds per game, so a red every 4 games or so

In the last three seasons in the top division he's been a touch more lenient than that

2.5,3.08 and 3.19 yellow per game averages

So yesterday was an outlier

As any team that gets over seven cards in the match is automatically fined, this means Messrs Gold and Sullivan the West Ham owners have to hand over some dosh.

Not sure if you saw them last night, one in fur, one in sheepskin, flanking a blonde lady in the front row?Not my favourite football owners in a not exactly shining firmament of same.

Yes, their faces were a picture.

I sensed tension between them & Mr Allardyce, too, Sam's pre & Post match interview seemed very much like he was trying to defend his record in anticipation of some stormy weather incoming.

[DungBeetle]

Tonight a couple of prices look big to me - any thoughts?

Huddersfield are 11/5 to beat Leciester at home - I know Leicester won at Boro on Saturday but this seems a big price for Huddersfield to bounce back from their home defeat by Watford.

Fleetwood are 6/4 to win at inconsistent York.  With York at 7/4 the bookies are saying this is pretty much a pickem game - but I was expecting Fleetwood to be shorter here as they look probably the strongest side in the division.

[tikay]

Are the baseball bets on here long term profit? I just don't get how betting odds on in individual games is profitable on Mlb, so so many teams around .500 mark.

£253 profit, ROI 27.5% on 20 bets

Not a big enough sample to claim long term profitability, however Singhee has a good record at spotting favourable match ups (pitchers)

Correct, & anyone can view the Spready to view those stats, up to date, daily.

Sample size is hopelessly small, of course, but its still pretty imprrssive, & I think the lad has a good handle on MLB.

I think our bet sizing is about right, too. He suggested £55 or £110 last night, but I just felt that £50 odd was enough.

[anthonyl]

Tonight a couple of prices look big to me - any thoughts?

Huddersfield are 11/5 to beat Leciester at home - I know Leicester won at Boro on Saturday but this seems a big price for Huddersfield to bounce back from their home defeat by Watford.

Fleetwood are 6/4 to win at inconsistent York.  With York at 7/4 the bookies are saying this is pretty much a pickem game - but I was expecting Fleetwood to be shorter here as they look probably the strongest side in the division.

I like Watford @ Charlton. Very decent side.

[DungBeetle]

yes - I'm a Watford fan and really feel like the change to 5-3-2 and the great performance at Huddersfield is the sign that we have turned the corner.  Not sure if 2/1 is value though, as we don't win at Charlton very often and they seem to have made a decent start?

[Matt.NFFC.]

Something for Wednesday maybe......my team Nott'm Forest just can't keep a clean sheet, just 1 in 9 games have we managed this so far this season.

Away from home Blackburn have scored 3, 5, and 2 against Leeds, Bristol City and Boro respectively.  

Blackburn to score Over 1.5 goals is 13/8 with Bet 365 looks ok to me.

Suggest maybe £20

Thoughts