Tips for Tikay

[action man]

yeh me too, but gamblers are very stubborn and most enjoy being restricted as it makes them believe they are very shrewd cookies.

[tikay]

Oh look. I just laid 7/1 on Betfair and now it is 36/1. Do they cancel my bets in that situation these days or do I get a black mark? I was only really testing out the strength of the info and I just laid £25 to see how quickly it would drift.

I would have assumed everyone had heard the news about Nathaniel?

Talking of which, & pardon me going off-topic, but the Nathaniel news reminded me of something.

I was reading Vincent O'Brien's splendid biography yesterday, and I had not previously realised that John Godsen has been his assistant for many years. Many thing about John G now make a lot more sense to me. He'll never be Vincent, of course, but not bad footsteps to follow. 

[DungBeetle]

I prefer it when they take me to cricket and stuff.  

[tikay]

yeh me too, but gamblers are very stubborn and most enjoy being restricted as it makes them believe they are very shrewd cookies.

Maybe.

Cookies, ice creams, value pie, we are a broad church it seems, but we eat well.

[Chompy]

There is a potentially massive angle with the Arc this weekend.

Last time a leading Japanese horse started favourite was in 2006, when Deep Impact was returned 9/4 favourite over here but went off 1/2 on the Paris-Mutuel.

This Sunday Orfevre will be around 5/2 domestically and will get smashed on course by the Japanese for sure. Reckon this will be another odds-on myself.

These Japanese punters don't mess around. I remember a time when a big-name sumo wrestler went to Fontwell or somewhere and forced an 8/1 shot into about fours on on the Tote.

Anyone backing anything other than Orfevre shouldn't take a price over here imo.

[action man]

anyones RP website down?

[Tal]

Oh look. I just laid 7/1 on Betfair and now it is 36/1. Do they cancel my bets in that situation these days or do I get a black mark? I was only really testing out the strength of the info and I just laid £25 to see how quickly it would drift.

I would have assumed everyone had heard the news about Nathaniel?

Talking of which, & pardon me going off-topic, but the Nathaniel news reminded me of something.

I was reading Vincent O'Brien's splendid biography yesterday, and I had not previously realised that John Godsen has been his assistant for many years. Many thing about John G now make a lot more sense to me. He'll never be Vincent, of course, but not bad footsteps to follow. 

I take it I don't get my antepost bet back..?

[Doobs]

On the subject of the Arc de Triomphe...if Nathanial was to be a non-runner would anyone find the race more interesting? I quite like 1/4 1,2,3 here and I just backed Saonois and Shareta ew at 9/1 and 8/1 with Ladbrokes. I didn't have much on as I couldn't really decide what to do but I think the race is due to cu up.

 Anyone prefer one of those over the other?

Oh ffs. Was just congratulating myself on my Arc book at the weekend, completely wrecked now.  I like Shareta, she seems to have improved again.  I was thinking Sea Moon may be worth a look too.

[Doobs]

There is a potentially massive angle with the Arc this weekend.

Last time a leading Japanese horse started favourite was in 2006, when Deep Impact was returned 9/4 favourite over here but went off 1/2 on the Paris-Mutuel.

This Sunday Orfevre will be around 5/2 domestically and will get smashed on course by the Japanese for sure. Reckon this will be another odds-on myself.

These Japanese punters don't mess around. I remember a time when a big-name sumo wrestler went to Fontwell or somewhere and forced an 8/1 shot into about fours on on the Tote.

Anyone backing anything other than Orfevre shouldn't take a price over here imo.

I remember the Deep Impact Arc.  You probably have an angle, but Orfevre surely isn't as hyped as Deep Impact was?

[tikay]

anyones RP website down?

Fine for me.

[Bad Beat]

 Sorry about that. I didn't know the news was going to break quite so quickly. It had hovvered around 7.4 on Betfair for over an hour and I had spent some time getting on before posting.

 I tend to think Deep Impact was a different kind of creature in terms of hype.

 This race really is going to be a great ew heat now. 1/4 odds and only about 6 0r 7 real runners.

 I remember being on the course when the Sumos were around. I thought it was Newbury, but now you mention it maybe it was Fontwell.

 

[Chompy]

Deep Impact was a hype machine but a Japanese-trained favourite is a Japansese-trained favourite.

Anyone fancy setting an under/over PMU price for a side bet?

Not bet the old way for so long I honestly don't know now...is it possible to back each-way on the PMU with FO boys over here?

[TightEnd]

Recommendations then for tonight

- Tranmere to beat Scunthorpe at 7/4 (see earlier post) William Hill


- Leeds at Bolton at 3/1 (value price, rather than firm conviction, just don't see Leeds as a 3-1 shot) Ladbrokes


- Hull v Blackpool over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (Nap) Paddy Power

Hull have seen over 2.5 goals land in their last six games, scoring and conceding in all of those.

Blackpool 12 scored/conceded in their last three. Never go away and play for a point. Ever.


Anxious not to get October into too big a hole tikay, so ignore or pick any as you wish or other people think

suggested sizes Tranmere £30ish, Leeds £20ish, Overs in Hull £50ish

[DungBeetle]

As mentioned earlier mine are:

Huddersfield to beat Leicester at 11/5 (£20).  Would be good to get Tighty's view on the price though against his boys.

Fleetwood to beat York at 6/4 (£40).  Fleetwood are a far better team both this year and last year in the conference.

[tikay]

Recommendations then for tonight

- Tranmere to beat Scunthorpe at 7/4 (see earlier post) William Hill


- Leeds at Bolton at 3/1 (value price, rather than firm conviction, just don't see Leeds as a 3-1 shot) Ladbrokes


- Hull v Blackpool over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (Nap) Paddy Power

Hull have seen over 2.5 goals land in their last six games, scoring and conceding in all of those.

Blackpool 12 scored/conceded in their last three. Never go away and play for a point. Ever.


Anxious not to get October into too big a hole tikay, so ignore or pick any as you wish or other people think

suggested sizes Tranmere £30ish, Leeds £20ish, Overs in Hull £50ish

Thanks for summarising them Rich, I'm  going offline for a few hours, but I'll look at them when I return.

Don't worry about the hole, we'll just keep digging.