Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

The X Factor farce rumbled into full swing at the weekend, with Louis forgetting who he was supposed to kick out, and nearly preventing the producers from retaining Rylan who adds publicity to the show.

The overall winner looks being in danger of being a one horse race with Ella well clear of the other acts, but due to the mediocre nature of many of the acts I think there may be some value in the eliminations markets in the early weeks.

Rylan should get a bounce this week and with the X Factor machine fully behind him should finish outside the bottom 2.

I think the person who may be in trouble at a decent price is Christopher Maloney.  Not only is his nervous act all the time annoying, but it turns out he used to sing on a cruise ship so the public is going to think it is an act.   Rumours abound that the producers are not happy with him in relation to this cruise ship which does not help his cause and may lead to him performing first up in the coffin slot.

If you google him he has a fair amount of negative publicity around his “nervous act”.

Only negative is that he isn’t a bad singer (but then neither was Carolyn in week 1) and that he must have some kind of fan base as he won the wildcard vote.

Nonetheless, I think his price is too big in what is a wide open elimination.  

I recommend we back Christ Maloney at 9/1 to be the second elimination for £5.

Just realised you did mention the poss negatives at the end of your post and of crse it is all about price. At 25-1+ I think i'd be tempted to back him to go next week too. Also like your cruise ship angle and possible death slot, it's def an interesting thing to consider. Apologies if my 'really don't like this' was vague i've just reread it and it does appear so.

I just don't think 9-1 is all that big when i'm not sure who his competition is in terms of votes, maybe Kye i guess who i'm opposing and perhaps Melanie who I am a fan of. Having said that I can def imagine a Melanie voter also voting for the other big voice in that category in Chris.  Remember he only needs to avoid the bottom 2 and I can think of at least 5 acts more likely to be there, and even then he still needs to be voted out.

Those that vote for the bands won't vote for Chris, but then again neither I think will his voters. I believe any of those 3 groups could be in trouble this forthcoming week once the kiddy vote decides which one they like in opposition to the rest. If Union J don't go after truely murdering that queen song then they may have a solid voter base and could be around for a few weeks. MK1 are slightly different and I think the rapper is half decent yet the girl's vocals seemed very poor and i'm not sure of their key demographic for votes. District 3 I believe are the most vunerable of the groups and are solid favourites to go this week at 3-1. Along with my position on Kye at 33-1 and a possible punt on Lucy, they would be have been a bet i'd consider though their price seem to hold little value.

"his nervousness is somewhat endearing"

The point is that this nervousness is being questioned as fake now which won't wash well.  I think he's going to get a lot of bad press this week.

If he's acting fake he's convinced me, I just think the man is an emotional wreck but will grow in confidence once the show progresses.

The cruise ship angle is very interesting i'd agree. Perhaps i'd be a player at 20-1 now. If the bad publicity comes out i'd say 9-1 is about the right price but still wouldn't excite me hugely.

Good luck with your bet mate, just would not be a value bet at all for me.

Can't believe I spent all this time writing about xfactor again this year, that damn show hooks me if only for the betting. Last night was so predictable, Louis obv told what to do although he gen wanted to save the bird. That's why it's so great to punt on, predictability-same ev year.

Meh boyles just offered me £1.20 on that Kye bet, betfair it will be then.

[DungBeetle]

Another point I hadn't thought about was that they won't want to ditch the wildcard so soon - kind of makes it a redundant effort putting it in.  Maybe you are right and it's too early for him to be binned, but I'm convinced he's going to be painted in an unfavourable light the next week or so. 

District 3 are an interesting one.  I think they are superior to the Union J shambles but they don't seem to have a fan base at the moment.

[Nico29]

Another point I hadn't thought about was that they won't want to ditch the wildcard so soon - kind of makes it a redundant effort putting it in.  Maybe you are right and it's too early for him to be binned, but I'm convinced he's going to be painted in an unfavourable light the next week or so.  

District 3 are an interesting one.  I think they are superior to the Union J shambles but they don't seem to have a fan base at the moment.

Totally agree with this, one of them can actually sing rather well too. Just feel that the Union J joke act are much more likely to get the girlie vote, with producers hoping for another One Direction cash cow.

The more I think about it, if and it's a big if, the bad publicity comes out like you say it will then 9-1 is certainly a fair price and probs value, i guess yr betting on that really.

Personally i'd wait until I saw if anything got into the mainstream before betting on Chris to go in week 2, would rather lose a point or two in price.

He's now 10-1 with corals to go.

[horseplayer]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6197921.stm

cases gone up after the 1.01 beating to its superstar yesterday?

[horseplayer]

electricity cut of at kettering

the end is very much nigh

[ripple11]

No groups yet in X Factor but I noticed in the clips of what's happening next week there seemed to be a couple.  Wonder why the wait?  Do you think they'll manufacture some again?  After the success of Little Mix, it's has to be an consideration.

A good friend's nephew is on soon in a boy band called ; GMD3    ( 3 good looking friends from stage school)

Louis has compared them to JLS !....and they got a standing ovation from all judges at auditions.

I think he said they got through to judges houses....so could be a good bet for top 3?

Another point I hadn't thought about was that they won't want to ditch the wildcard so soon - kind of makes it a redundant effort putting it in.  Maybe you are right and it's too early for him to be binned, but I'm convinced he's going to be painted in an unfavourable light the next week or so. 

District 3 are an interesting one.  I think they are superior to the Union J shambles but they don't seem to have a fan base at the moment.

Totally agree with this, one of them can actually sing rather well too. Just feel that the Union J joke act are much more likely to get the girlie vote, with producers hoping for another One Direction cash cow.

The more I think about it, if and it's a big if, the bad publicity comes out like you say it will then 9-1 is certainly a fair price and probs value, i guess yr betting on that really.

Personally i'd wait until I saw if anything got into the mainstream before betting on Chris to go in week 2, would rather lose a point or two in price.

He's now 10-1 with corals to go.

Just spoken to my friend!...... District3 (GMD3)  had a fan base pre x factor...and toured USA as a backing band.They have 100k followers on twitter. UnionJ have 10K.
Apparently the new guy who joined UnionJ is managed by someone on the production team of x factor....so maybe a factor in them getting promoted more?
They were first up in week one with no backing singers/production dancers etc, ...so I think their popularity will def go up.

[Tal]

Tikay sort this nonsense out, please!

Half of the finalists were recruited by the producers.

Plus it was soundly beaten in the ratings. I think more people read Tighty's updates than watched Britain's Got The Predetermined Pop Factor.

[DungBeetle]

Good info Ripple.

[Acidmouse]

There is zero chance the nervous dude will go, wildcard and underdog..

[redarmi]

In the credit column, Kuku gave us a nice NFL bet on Eagles-Steelers (+£30), & reds gave us the Newc-Man Utd overs, for +£40. We needed those two results to mitigate an otherwise bad day, & weekend.
       

I would love to take credit for this bet but it was Monda.  I simply endorsed it.

[tikay]

In the credit column, Kuku gave us a nice NFL bet on Eagles-Steelers (+£30), & reds gave us the Newc-Man Utd overs, for +£40. We needed those two results to mitigate an otherwise bad day, & weekend.
       

I would love to take credit for this bet but it was Monda.  I simply endorsed it.

So it was, my apologies to Raymondo. I now recall you came on later & endorsed it, &, I think, another semi-related bet.

I'll ask Mr Mere to amend the records, so that Mondy can get on the Honours Board for the first time ever.

Mondy tipped a winner, who'd have thunk?

[tikay]

Tikay sort this nonsense out, please! Half of the finalists were recruited by the producers.

Plus it was soundly beaten in the ratings. I think more people read Tighty's updates than watched Britain's Got The Predetermined Pop Factor.

Lol, & groan.

I can't even BEAR to read about it, not even one paragraph, not one line, it absolutely does my head in, the mere thought of becoming immersed in that sort of pap. What IS the world coming to, when people spend their leisure time watching that sort of stuff? Have they not discovered books?

To be fair, each to their own, & I imagine the fact that I often spend all morning at Heathrow photographing aeroplanes, & all afternon taking pics of, & feeding, geese, swans, ducks & gulls by the Thames, & all evening reading non-fiction books is viewed as equally daft.

It takes all sorts.

When I see Chompy, he is full of the latest goss from Big brother, X-Factor, & there is even an X-Factor thread somewhere on blonde.

An X-Factor thread! There'd me more fun reading 'Stars Hand Histories, & the usual nonsense excuses for losing, (he was a complete idiot, he called me, what a donkey) than reading an X-Factor thread I think.

I wish you had not Posted that. I've just arrived in Leeds after a nightmare drive up the M1, I'm in a foul mood, & I won't be able to set off to head back home until way after 10pm tonight. And tonight, I have to meet & chat to, the general public.  

I never thought things would come to that.

[TheChipPrince]

DARTS

King v Jenkins over 3.5 180's, short format, double start double finish, could be close, if it goes 3 sets bet def wins, could win if 2-0 either way, two good scorers.

Spin make the mid-point 3.95

£30 @ 4/5 with either Betfred or BV

[tikay]

DARTS

King v Jenkins over 3.5 180's, short format, double start double finish, could be close, if it goes 3 sets bet def wins, could win if 2-0 either way, two good scorers.

Spin make the mid-point 3.95

£30 @ 4/5 with either Betfred or BV

Excellent, thanks.

The price has gone at Betfred (now 8/11) & BetVictor (now 4/6) but Blue Square stiill offer 10/11 (!) so we've got a bit of that, £33 @ 10/11, OVER 3.5 x 180's, King v Jenkins, tonight.


http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/darts/world-grand-prix/mervyn-king-v-terry-jenkins/total-180s


ON



Selection Over 3.5 @ 10/11 
Market
 Total 180s
 
Event
 World Grand Prix
Terry Jenkins v Mervyn King
2012-10-08 20:40:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £33.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £33.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-10-08 16:22:34
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000104

[DungBeetle]

Tikay - you miss the point.  Discussing X Factor betting is not about enjoying the X Factor.  It is about second guessing:

A) The voting patterns of the British public
B) The antics of the producers in shaping who does well and badly

The interaction of these factors is pretty fascinating in my opinion.  I don't really enjoy the show's performances, but every little comment from the judges happens for a reason as the powers that be try to shape their show.