Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I agree with all of Tighty's post, with the exception of the phrase "drilling down".

Get enough of that management speak at work. More collaborative blue sky thinking, going forward, will engender a more empowered framework.

[class]

I like the look of under 6.5 180s in the Nicholson v Osbourne match tonight.
Both players are out of form and have never been big max hitters, it going to 5 sets should be the only real  danger  of it getting to 7+
In their last round matches both players hit 2 each in 5 sets.
Every other bookhas the line at 5.5, Hills go 6.5

Bill Hill now in line wil everyone else, is this still a recommend at 5.5 or too thin?

[class]

The Baltimore Ravens have won their last 13 games at home

In their last 30 games against opponents from the NFC conference they are 24-5-1

On Sunday they host the Dallas Cowboys, of whom I am a big fan


Baltimore are 4-1 this season, the Cowboys 2-2

Whilst Baltimore are not quite the suffocating defense they used to be, that is compensated for by having more firepower on offense than previously. This season they have scored, in their five games 44,23,31, 23 and then 9 points last week in a 9-6 win

The Cowboys meanwhile have a good defense, and plenty of talent but have glaring weaknesses that mean they are a poor match up for the Ravens. This is primarily an Offensive live that is patchwork and lacks talent particularly in the interior. Going against Haloti Ngata, a destructive defensive lineman, is bad news for them and means that the Dallas QB Romo is unlikely to have the clean pocket he requires to consistently find his targets

We saw this against the Bears last time, where "bad" Romo threw various interceptions and the team lost heavily

Since then Dallas have had a bye week, which is in their favour. In fact that is worth looking at in more detail, as it is seen to be an advantage

Over the four most recent seasons in games where only one team is coming off the bye, the team coming off the bye has a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 against the spread.  

However, drilling down, Road Underdogs are 8-24 Straight / 14-18 Against the Spread coming off a bye so that is more encouraging. If a mediocre team has to travel the week after the bye, then the bye week is not necessarily an advantage against the favourite who hasn't had one...

The Cowboys are a Road Underdog, this week.

Baltimore are 10/11 -3.5 and 8/15 straight up

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/dallas-cowboys-at-baltimore-ravens/point-spread

I generally prefer to go against the spread. However on this occasion the match up and the demonstrable home advantage the Ravens have point me in the opposite direction

Before I looked at the prices, I expected it to be Ravens -5 or -6.


Recommend £50 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 10/11, available widely.

Putting this up early, and will be watching it, in the hope that public money takes the Cowboys to +3 by Sunday. This can happen, as the Cowboys have a big fan base and their markets can move as the recdonkfishamnon-pro money comes as the wekend starts

Game is 6pm our time Sunday.

Great write up, are you recommending this bet now, or to wait until closer to Sunday to see if the line drops to 3?

[tikay]

I agree with all of Tighty's post, with the exception of the phrase "drilling down".

Get enough of that management speak at work. More collaborative blue sky thinking, going forward, will engender a more empowered framework.

My pet dislike management speak thingie is I am not currently across it. (Translation, "I don't know").

Typically thorough analysis by Tighty though. Some of it - most of it - was right over my head, but that's some bit of research. Sadly, I'm not across NFL-speak as well as I would like.

[tikay]

I like the look of under 6.5 180s in the Nicholson v Osbourne match tonight.
Both players are out of form and have never been big max hitters, it going to 5 sets should be the only real  danger  of it getting to 7+
In their last round matches both players hit 2 each in 5 sets.
Every other bookhas the line at 5.5, Hills go 6.5

Bill Hill now in line wil everyone else, is this still a recommend at 5.5 or too thin?

I was about to ask the same thing.

If Snowy says "do it", we'll do it.

[tikay]

The Baltimore Ravens have won their last 13 games at home

In their last 30 games against opponents from the NFC conference they are 24-5-1

On Sunday they host the Dallas Cowboys, of whom I am a big fan


Baltimore are 4-1 this season, the Cowboys 2-2

Whilst Baltimore are not quite the suffocating defense they used to be, that is compensated for by having more firepower on offense than previously. This season they have scored, in their five games 44,23,31, 23 and then 9 points last week in a 9-6 win

The Cowboys meanwhile have a good defense, and plenty of talent but have glaring weaknesses that mean they are a poor match up for the Ravens. This is primarily an Offensive live that is patchwork and lacks talent particularly in the interior. Going against Haloti Ngata, a destructive defensive lineman, is bad news for them and means that the Dallas QB Romo is unlikely to have the clean pocket he requires to consistently find his targets

We saw this against the Bears last time, where "bad" Romo threw various interceptions and the team lost heavily

Since then Dallas have had a bye week, which is in their favour. In fact that is worth looking at in more detail, as it is seen to be an advantage

Over the four most recent seasons in games where only one team is coming off the bye, the team coming off the bye has a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 against the spread.   

However, drilling down, Road Underdogs are 8-24 Straight / 14-18 Against the Spread coming off a bye so that is more encouraging. If a mediocre team has to travel the week after the bye, then the bye week is not necessarily an advantage against the favourite who hasn't had one...

The Cowboys are a Road Underdog, this week.

Baltimore are 10/11 -3.5 and 8/15 straight up

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/dallas-cowboys-at-baltimore-ravens/point-spread

I generally prefer to go against the spread. However on this occasion the match up and the demonstrable home advantage the Ravens have point me in the opposite direction

Before I looked at the prices, I expected it to be Ravens -5 or -6.


Recommend £50 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 10/11, available widely.

Putting this up early, and will be watching it, in the hope that public money takes the Cowboys to +3 by Sunday. This can happen, as the Cowboys have a big fan base and their markets can move as the recdonkfishamnon-pro money comes as the wekend starts

Game is 6pm our time Sunday.

Great write up, are you recommending this bet now, or to wait until closer to Sunday to see if the line drops to 3?

Oi, what is going on? You anticipated my question AGAIN!

Like you, I'm not sure if we should bet now, or wait.

We must await the view of His Tightness. And the "Elite".......

[TightEnd]

Would love to see Ravens -3 before Sunday

Obviously we have 72 hours to spot that

Would up the recommended bet if I saw that (NFL scoring is in 3 and 7's so a move to -3 would be helpful)

If not, -3.5 is fine at the recommended thread bet, in my opinion

[tikay]

Would love to see Ravens -3 before Sunday

Obviously we have 72 hours to spot that

Would up the recommended bet if I saw that (NFL scoring is in 3 and 7's so a move to -3 would be helpful)

If not, -3.5 is fine at the recommended thread bet, in my opinion

Thanks Rich.

I think I'll go in now, unless anyone thinks otherwise. If we all agreed, & the market moved in our favour, we could top up later.

Key numbers eh? Loving alll this.

Revealing, perhaps, a shade too much of my number geekness, I note you refer to "3" & "7" as  key numbers, & by a mathematical oddity (= pure coincidence) if you put them together to form 37 you get what in my opinion is THE key number. I know that for a fact, as someone sent me a whole aricle about NFL Key Numbers yesterday. I could barely sleep last night with the excitement.

34 is huge for low-scoring games, & 41 is mahoosive for high-scoring games. Apparently. I'm not wholly across it all yet though.

[Snowball]

I like the look of under 6.5 180s in the Nicholson v Osbourne match tonight.
Both players are out of form and have never been big max hitters, it going to 5 sets should be the only real  danger  of it getting to 7+
In their last round matches both players hit 2 each in 5 sets.
Every other bookhas the line at 5.5, Hills go 6.5

Bill Hill now in line wil everyone else, is this still a recommend at 5.5 or too thin?

I was about to ask the same thing.

If Snowy says "do it", we'll do it.

I still like unders but not enough of an edge to put it ip for Fred for my liking.

[TightEnd]

Well now you are talking

The points spread for this is 44.5

It's too high, by the way

but lets actually get a bet up this month!

[class]

The Baltimore Ravens have won their last 13 games at home

In their last 30 games against opponents from the NFC conference they are 24-5-1

On Sunday they host the Dallas Cowboys, of whom I am a big fan


Baltimore are 4-1 this season, the Cowboys 2-2

Whilst Baltimore are not quite the suffocating defense they used to be, that is compensated for by having more firepower on offense than previously. This season they have scored, in their five games 44,23,31, 23 and then 9 points last week in a 9-6 win

The Cowboys meanwhile have a good defense, and plenty of talent but have glaring weaknesses that mean they are a poor match up for the Ravens. This is primarily an Offensive live that is patchwork and lacks talent particularly in the interior. Going against Haloti Ngata, a destructive defensive lineman, is bad news for them and means that the Dallas QB Romo is unlikely to have the clean pocket he requires to consistently find his targets

We saw this against the Bears last time, where "bad" Romo threw various interceptions and the team lost heavily

Since then Dallas have had a bye week, which is in their favour. In fact that is worth looking at in more detail, as it is seen to be an advantage

Over the four most recent seasons in games where only one team is coming off the bye, the team coming off the bye has a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 against the spread.   

However, drilling down, Road Underdogs are 8-24 Straight / 14-18 Against the Spread coming off a bye so that is more encouraging. If a mediocre team has to travel the week after the bye, then the bye week is not necessarily an advantage against the favourite who hasn't had one...

The Cowboys are a Road Underdog, this week.

Baltimore are 10/11 -3.5 and 8/15 straight up

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/dallas-cowboys-at-baltimore-ravens/point-spread

I generally prefer to go against the spread. However on this occasion the match up and the demonstrable home advantage the Ravens have point me in the opposite direction

Before I looked at the prices, I expected it to be Ravens -5 or -6.


Recommend £50 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 10/11, available widely.

Putting this up early, and will be watching it, in the hope that public money takes the Cowboys to +3 by Sunday. This can happen, as the Cowboys have a big fan base and their markets can move as the recdonkfishamnon-pro money comes as the wekend starts

Game is 6pm our time Sunday.

Great write up, are you recommending this bet now, or to wait until closer to Sunday to see if the line drops to 3?

Oi, what is going on? You anticipated my question AGAIN!

Like you, I'm not sure if we should bet now, or wait.

We must await the view of His Tightness. And the "Elite".......

I'm not sure whether this is a compliment or not?!? Am I on the same wavelength as the legendary Mr Kendall, or joining him en route to the ice cream parlour, whilst passing the ever so inviting cake factory.

[Bad Beat]

 "Tonight, however, we get back to winning ways, as NFL hotpot Kuku has given us a nice little NFL bet on Tennessee v Pittsburgh (UNDER 42.5) which I'm extremely bullish about. Keep dat faith".

 I think Kuku suggested the over. The line has moved in his favour to 43.5 with some 44s breaking out.

 I actually quite like under 44 but I hope you went the right way for the fred.

 That Nation's Cup picture had me strugglin for one of the names. Did anyone get the name of our internet qualifier? He played decent and I thought we might see him around the circuit in years to come but I don't think I ever have.

 I have things to say on the Baltimore game and I wouldn't be rushing to back Dallas but I don't see a need to steam into the Ravens now either. The line is so solid at 3.5 right now and it could just get to 3 by Sunday. The favourite by 3 happens around 14% of the time so it's a pretty important number to get. If you could choose between taking Baltimore at -3.5 at 10/11 or at -3 then for the two prices to be neutral ev you would be able to almost take 8/11 -3. If you can get 4/5 -3 that is better than -3.5 at 10/11.

[Doobs]

 That Nation's Cup picture had me strugglin for one of the names. Did anyone get the name of our internet qualifier? He played decent and I thought we might see him around the circuit in years to come but I don't think I ever have.

I was thinking I could get 5 from 6, but didn't realise Tikay had sent down a doosra.  Just had to google him, but it turns out Charlie sent one down the wrong way too to defeat us herbertmobbers.

[tikay]

"Tonight, however, we get back to winning ways, as NFL hotpot Kuku has given us a nice little NFL bet on Tennessee v Pittsburgh (UNDER 42.5) which I'm extremely bullish about. Keep dat faith".

I think Kuku suggested the over. The line has moved in his favour to 43.5 with some 44s breaking out.

 I actually quite like under 44 but I hope you went the right way for the fred.

 That Nation's Cup picture had me strugglin for one of the names. Did anyone get the name of our internet qualifier? He played decent and I thought we might see him around the circuit in years to come but I don't think I ever have.

 I have things to say on the Baltimore game and I wouldn't be rushing to back Dallas but I don't see a need to steam into the Ravens now either. The line is so solid at 3.5 right now and it could just get to 3 by Sunday. The favourite by 3 happens around 14% of the time so it's a pretty important number to get. If you could choose between taking Baltimore at -3.5 at 10/11 or at -3 then for the two prices to be neutral ev you would be able to almost take 8/11 -3. If you can get 4/5 -3 that is better than -3.5 at 10/11.

He did indeed, apologies, & fortunately, I DID (eventually....) put the bet on properly, but I misread the spready, as I am not across the difference between < & >. Oh the shame.

One day I'll own up to the fact that originally I backed that very tip back to front, & so I had to take it on my off-thread account. So I'm either win win or lose lose, I'm not entirely sure which.

[Doobs]

"Tonight, however, we get back to winning ways, as NFL hotpot Kuku has given us a nice little NFL bet on Tennessee v Pittsburgh (UNDER 42.5) which I'm extremely bullish about. Keep dat faith".

I think Kuku suggested the over. The line has moved in his favour to 43.5 with some 44s breaking out.

 I actually quite like under 44 but I hope you went the right way for the fred.

 That Nation's Cup picture had me strugglin for one of the names. Did anyone get the name of our internet qualifier? He played decent and I thought we might see him around the circuit in years to come but I don't think I ever have.

 I have things to say on the Baltimore game and I wouldn't be rushing to back Dallas but I don't see a need to steam into the Ravens now either. The line is so solid at 3.5 right now and it could just get to 3 by Sunday. The favourite by 3 happens around 14% of the time so it's a pretty important number to get. If you could choose between taking Baltimore at -3.5 at 10/11 or at -3 then for the two prices to be neutral ev you would be able to almost take 8/11 -3. If you can get 4/5 -3 that is better than -3.5 at 10/11.

He did indeed, apologies, & fortunately, I DID (eventually....) put the bet on properly, but I misread the spready, as I am not across the difference between < & >. Oh the shame.

One day I'll own up to the fact that originally I backed that very tip back to front, & so I had to take it on my off-thread account. So I'm either win win or lose lose, I'm not entirely sure which.

The bigger (wider) end of the symbol faces the bigger number.  So 9 > 5, or 5 < 9.  I hope this helps you tick the box.