Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

William Hill special on NFL.

Willis Mgahee or Ryan Matthews first scorer? Any good, price is 10/3...

Worth a gamble at £30?

Luckily I was fast asleep when you Posted this Aaron!

[Tal]

Coverage of the Man Booker Prize will be from 9.30 tonight on BBC News. The announcement is expected to be just after 9.40.

I've no idea how you can "squeeze" the result. Perhaps pur squeezologists can assist?

Very paw.

I miss sleepy Tikay...

[Tal]

Well, hopefully tonight will help you get a little kitty going.

Pussybly anyway

[TightEnd]

The NFL game was amazing tikay

The Chargers went into a 24-0 lead helped by two fumbles on returns by the Broncos

Of course no one would think "game over" and go to bed at that point.


So I wake up this morning to find the Broncos have won 35-24 with the biggest MNF comeback in history, and furthermore Peyton Manning tied Dan Marino with his 47th game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Great sport, it really is, or would be if I was awake.

[Doobs]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

[tikay]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

[horseplayer]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

i go 1-4 that o neill the messiah is quoted "needing more squad depth" within the next three weeks

[tikay]

The NFL game was amazing tikay

The Chargers went into a 24-0 lead helped by two fumbles on returns by the Broncos

Of course no one would think "game over" and go to bed at that point.


So I wake up this morning to find the Broncos have won 35-24 with the biggest MNF comeback in history, and furthermore Peyton Manning tied Dan Marino with his 47th game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Great sport, it really is, or would be if I was awake.

So I gathered, & like you, after the weekend's exertions, & despite my best intentions, I zzz'd though the game.

I have a good friend who marks my card as to NFL, & generally assists me, & we had a mutual interest in Denver.

When I got to work this morning, I had a whole series of PM's from him, sent at different times during the game. I even squeeze my PM's, so I opened them one by one......

It began with "aaarrggh, truly awful start, can't believe they dropped 2 kicks for turnovers".

Next up it was "ffs, it's almost impossible to win when you give away 17 points on turnovers".

The next one was ALL IN CAPITAL LETTERS.......

Finally, the happy news came through, "only the 2nd time in 19 years a team has come back from a 24 point defecit at HT & won".

Apparently, the 24-zip lead was not representative of the game, & in reality, Denver beat 'em up real good.

If only I could stop falling asleep at night. My next attempt at watching NFL will be after Thursday's Show, when I'll try & stay up & watch this....


 http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/winner

[bobby1]

The NFL game was amazing tikay

The Chargers went into a 24-0 lead helped by two fumbles on returns by the Broncos

Of course no one would think "game over" and go to bed at that point.


So I wake up this morning to find the Broncos have won 35-24 with the biggest MNF comeback in history, and furthermore Peyton Manning tied Dan Marino with his 47th game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Great sport, it really is, or would be if I was awake.

It was an incred game really, the best team were 24-0 down at ht and It would be hard to imagine a more one sided game with a 34-24 score line. Elvis Dumervil was amazing in the second half. It really reiterates how important avoiding turnovers is too, dropping kick returns is such a bad error too so to give them 17 points start all resulting from turnovers and come back to force 6 turnovers from San D was some performance.


Only one team in weeks 5 and 6 combined lost the turnover count and managed to win their game and that was Seattle against Carolina in week 5.

[bobby1]

The NFL game was amazing tikay

The Chargers went into a 24-0 lead helped by two fumbles on returns by the Broncos

Of course no one would think "game over" and go to bed at that point.


So I wake up this morning to find the Broncos have won 35-24 with the biggest MNF comeback in history, and furthermore Peyton Manning tied Dan Marino with his 47th game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Great sport, it really is, or would be if I was awake.

So I gathered, & like you, after the weekend's exertions, & despite my best intentions, I zzz'd though the game.

I have a good friend who marks my card as to NFL, & generally assists me, & we had a mutual interest in Denver.

When I got to work this morning, I had a whole series of PM's from him, sent at different times during the game. I even squeeze my PM's, so I opened them one by one......

It began with "aaarrggh, truly awful start, can't believe they dropped 2 kicks for turnovers".

Next up it was "ffs, it's almost impossible to win when you give away 17 points on turnovers".

The next one was ALL IN CAPITAL LETTERS.......

Finally, the happy news came through, "only the 2nd time in 19 years a team has come back from a 24 point defecit at & won".

Apparently, the 24-zip lead was not representative of the game, & in reality, Denver beat 'em up real good.

If only I could stop falling asleep at night. My next attempt at watching NFL will be after Thursday's Show, when I'll try & stay up & watch this....


 http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-san-francisco-49ers/winner

Haha. When you didn't reply I knew you had either fallen asleep or were tending the allotment. I made it 1/20 the former after your hectic weekend. 

[tikay]

Can't even remember where the allotment is these days, & anyway, I rarely spend long there, an ad break suffices.

[Dubai]

£50ew Ronaldo first goalscorer 9-5 Ppower

[Doobs]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat. 

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena. 
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

[Ant040689]

sammy lee at 33/1 with stan james to be next bolton manager, currently will be the caretaker and Bolton have said effectively he stays on with a good start. Everywhere else is closer to 5/1.

[kpnuts]

maxed at 90 cent but good shout!