Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The Cardinals suggestion by Tighty, & Neil's comments.

Agreed. We'll leave it for now & hope it goes to 7, then get on. If it sticks at 6.5, we may even go with that.

Personally, I'll be staying away from any "Totals" bets. The Vikes stadium is a Dome, & I don't like betting Totals in Dome games. Detail detail detail, see? Just saying.

[TightEnd]

Weekend football, further thoughts

Liverpool have drifted slightly all week, and can now be laid at 1.39 (1.33 when posted on Monday). I think it is felt that Liverpool might finally by on the turn by those who have done well out of opposing them for 18 months though as I wrote I was tempted to lay

Chelsea are 2.9 at Spurs (Spurs 2.7, draw 3.5) In their last 20 London Derbies at home Spurs have won 13 and drew 7. Lost None. Want to oppose Chelsea, with the recdonkfish likely to be supporting them


In the Championship the last three rounds of matches, 36 games have produced on 7 home wins and 19 away wins

In form sides Cardiff W 5 of 6, Wolves W 5 of 6, Leicester W 6 of 7, Palace W 6 D 1 of 7

Cardiff are 2-1 away at Forest and look a standout compared to Wolves at Hudd and Leicester at Birmingham

Palace are 6-5 at home to Millwall in the Saturday lunchtime game. Not entirely clear to me why they are not odds on


Lower Leagues

Crawley are 13-10 against a Hartlepool side who have 1 in 12 this season, and that 1 is 1 of 6 at home

Sheff U, unbeaten all season 2-1 at Preston

Tranmere 2-1 at Bournemouth and have been under-repped all season in markets. Bournemouth have Eddie Howe back


Gillingham v Burton over 2.5 goals. Gillingham are top and have scored 2 goals a game on average this season. Amongst Burton's results are 3-2,3-3,5-1 and 4-3



That's the fruits of two hours research, and for further discussion by you lot

[Doobs]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat. 

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena. 
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Bump

[tikay]

Gotcha Doobs, & Tighty for the other Football Forts.

I'll sort through them all tonight, or in the morning.

We need to do some catching up this weekend, we are quite a bit behind on the month, & Fred has gone a bit quiet.

A MAX or two might lie ahead......

I'll go through that India v England Test proposal too, Tighty. 4-0 looks a bit optimistic, but you are MCC, so I hear you loud & clear. You sure "weather is not a factor"? Some 20 year rainfall graphs might assist.   

[TightEnd]

my nap of those I put up for discussion is the Gillingham v Burton over 2.5 goals, followed by Palace

Less convinced of Liverpool and Chelsea, though thought them worthy of discussion

[TightEnd]

The first test is in Ahmedabad

In November the average monthly rainfall is 5.8mm with a mean number of raindays of 0.9

Contrast this with the Monsoon season, in our summer... 316mm a month a mean number of rain days of 15.9


I've checked, weather is not a factor. Here is the Ahmedabad chart.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr Tikay.

Rugby Union Exeter v Clermont Auvergne tomorrow 6pm.

Exeter are still not getting the credit they deserve from the layers. They have already beaten Harlequins and Saracens at home this season and last week only just failed to get a draw at Leinster, missing a late kick to lose 9-6. It has been raining all week in Devon so it will be a heavy pitch and it will be a passionate atmosphere. Home wins are vital in this competition and this game will have been targetted all season by Exeter. Most people are also aware by now how poorly French teams travel, look at the results last week by the 2 French teams playing over here. Yet the layers are making the French favourites so we have an excellent opportunity here to back the truck up. There will be few points so we will have a draw saver too.

Recommend Exeter £25 @ 5-2 Sporting Bet and £5 draw 20-1 several places but not Sporting Bet

[JaffaCake]

Can't remember who posted it, tony maybe, the 5/6 on cavendish to sign for some Belgian lot I'd never heard of weighed in yesterday. I read the suggested site and it seemed a done deal when suggested here, was only on skybet so Fred couldn't get involved. Back to blinding off in the Gukpt

[TightEnd]

hector

Castres are at home to Northampton

Castres are a really tough team at home

first game Ulster 41- Castres 17, Northampton 24 Warriors 15

thoughts on Northampton at 6/4? They can really take on the French up front, in my opinion

(not for thread, at this stage.)

[tikay]

Wonder what price we could get for Dubai to make Day Two of the Luton GUKPT?

2/7?

[TightEnd]

Wonder what price we could get for Dubai to make Day Two of the Luton GUKPT?

2/7?

not currently in the player list

late reg til 8pm

[tikay]

Probably doing the Luton club scene, or busy giving cheesy media interviews.

[hector62]

hector

Castres are at home to Northampton

Castres are a really tough team at home

first game Ulster 41- Castres 17, Northampton 24 Warriors 15

thoughts on Northampton at 6/4? They can really take on the French up front, in my opinion

(not for thread, at this stage.)

The French sides are real enigmas, such different form  home and away. They seem to think they have a god given right to win their home games, play with such ferocity and it takes a special team to win over there. I think Northampton can compete but I have not seen them show the form this season to win over there. I'd go for Castres by 10. If Northampton were at home then I'd take Northampton to win by 18.

[TightEnd]

thanks Mr Cake.

[bobby1]

That Zona line has a lot of other outstanding issue around it tho Rich. QB Kevin Kolb was injured last week so John Skelton takes over at qb, they fought out a battle for the starting job pre season and Skelton got the nod only to get injured in the first game. So technically the first choice qb when the season started is coming back but Kolb has done a good job so far. Skelton also said his injury was about 80-90% when he came in for Kolb last week.

On top of that both their first choice rb are now on injured reserve, they ran a tandem of Larod Stephens Howling and William Powell last week. Powell looked pretty good and Howling didn't so I guess they will do the same this week but that Minny run D looks pretty solid.

It looks like a really tricky line, Skelton could fit in for Kolb without too much trouble if he is fully fit and Powell looked good last week but the main components of that 4-0 start at qb and rb are now missing.

It deffo looks like a line the public have bet up but Skelton and Kolb looked pretty equal pre season and if Powell is a good as he looked last week then there might not be much to worry about but they are deffo considerations that have led to the bigger handicap and it getting bet up. The one area they could have a nightmare in is protecting a qb coming back from injury that might not yet be fully fit is keeping him upright. They have given up 14 sacks in their last 2 games and the most in the league so far this season in 28 sacks in 6 games.