Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Minnesota 21, Arizona 14

I am assuming you got a "push" on this, as it hit the spread exactly?

Yes, was a push.
Good shout from Channing regards waiting for the line to move.

very. Made all the difference

No particular hard luck stories, but the Cards missed a FG just before half time, then turned down another FG early in the second half to go for it on 4th and 2, and got 1 yard

Skelton, the QB, performed poorly, which was bobby1's argument

In the circumstances, take the push and move on!

[TL900]

The Vikings are now -7 at 20/21 with the evil Hills organisation. I can't really see it hitting -7.5 today as it is an early game and the wagons have so many to choose from. The sharper offshore books are still -6.5 with the Vikings minus a dollar twenty so I would suggest now is the time to act.

 On that Cleveland/Indy suggestion I hate it. I think Indy got a lot of support two weeks ago and played to a new intensity because of the coaches cancer announcement. Last week they had the predictable letdown. Meanwhile the Browns had a big moral-boosting victory against the Bengals. I don't think the public have realised yet that Cleveland are just the better team here but I think the syndicates have. The very early line was -3.5 which was taken and then -3. I wish I could be on Browns +3.
 

I think this is the important issue with the Colts and agree totally.  I could only back Cleveland here.

Cleveland suck.

[TightEnd]

Lions at the Bears, Monday Night Football

The Lions average 25 points a game, but concede more than that

Plenty of receiving firepower, but a patchwork secondary

The Bears average 30 points a game, but concede well under 20 on average

More receiving firepower than previous years, and a top notch defense

Spread is Chicago -6.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Points total quoted at 47

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-points

Views please

Overs?


I was struck by the Brandon Marshall market. Being the Bears number 1 receiver

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

The Lions were down to two healthy cornerbacks at the end of last week, have signed one off the street and might start a rookie

http://sidelionreport.com/2012/10/22/detroit-lions-secondary-will-have-a-lot-of-moving-parts-against-bears/

Marshall averaging 99.5 ypg this season

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2495893/careerstats

and quoted at that for this, despite coming up against weakened opponents

Mileage in the Marshall overs?

(assuming the Chicago OL keeps Cutler protected against Suh, Avril etc)

[AceHighSuited]

This just landed in my inbox from ATS or some similar sounding name, I have no idea who they are but seems like a comprehensive review based on a quick skim!

Can we take anything from it?

NFL Free Pick - Chicago vs. Detroit for Monday, October 22nd

Detroit travels to Soldier Field Stadium to take on the Chicago Bears on Monday at 8:40pmET/ Detroit is coming off a 26-23 win at Philadelphia, while Chicago is coming off a bye. On Oct. 7, the Bears beat Jacksonville, 41-3 on the road. Last year: CHICAGO (-3) over Detroit, 37-13; DETROIT (-5) over Chicago, 24-13

Odds: The oddsmakers have installed the Bears as a 6.5-point favorite. The total is 47 in most books.

Line Movement: Chicago opened as a 6-point favorite and moved to 6.5 at most books. The total started at 48 and moved down to 47 in most books.

Monday night analysis: Latest trends: Lions are 5-0 Over last 5 Monday games, 10-1 Over away off a road win, 22-6-2 Over last 30 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 20-6-2 Over last 28 games on grass, 23-11-2 Over last 36 following an ATS win and 10-4-1 Over last 15 games in October, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games, 5-2 Over last 7 in Chicago, 8-1 Over last 9 games following a ATS win and is 9-4 Over last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. Coming off their bye week, the Chicago Bears are looking to extend their winning streak to four games and remain atop the NFC North when they host the division-rival Detroit Lions on Monday night. Chicago has outscored its opponents 98-27 over its last three contests. The Bears also are hoping to continue their dominance over Detroit as Chicago has won seven of the last eight meetings between the clubs. The Lions are seeking their second straight win as they are coming off a 26-23 overtime triumph in Philadelphia. Detroit scored 10 points in the final 3:32 of regulation and Jason Hanson kicked his fourth field goal of the game from 45 yards out to complete the comeback.

FREE PICK OF THE DAY:
Please call toll-free  1-800-772-1287 for today’s selection from 2pmET-7pmET and mention CODE: DIR7

[Bad Beat]

 I wouldn't neccessarily say the Browns are that bad. I can assure you there are much worse teams in the NFL. I think it's fair to say they are a very poorly coached side. Luckily though a man invented the point spread and since that day backing terrible teams has become the way to make money.

 Someone wise once said that when two bad teams play each other one bad team is going to win. I think it's important not to overeact to one result and I would say that Cleveland may remain a team to be with ATS while Indy may be one to be against.

[peejaytwo]

The Lions average 25 points a game, but concede more than that

Plenty of receiving firepower, but a patchwork secondary

The Bears average 30 points a game, but concede well under 20 on average

More receiving firepower than previous years, and a top notch defense

Spread is Chicago -6.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Points total quoted at 47

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-points

Views please

Overs?

no one talking to you tighty?
my preferred bet would be Chicago over 26.5 pts at 10/11 but i can only get £27.50 on at bsq.
ive had a small bet on over 46.5, 1.94 available at pinnacle seems fair.

[tikay]

Lol peejay, I'll be on the case shortly, had a bit of a difficult day, but will sort tonight's NFL shortly.

Not televised tonight, as far as I can tell?

[peejaytwo]

bbc iplayer tikay,but after my bedtime as im working at 7am.

[tikay]

bbc iplayer tikay,but after my bedtime as im working at 7am.

Ooh, thanks. I may be in love with you.

[peejaytwo]

pinny lines going against my bet now.
1.97 over 46.5
1.95 over 26 chicago (didn't see this before)

can someone (badbeat perhaps) advise if the lines are accurate on NFL as i generally use them for our footy and not other sports.

[Bad Beat]

 Pinnacle offer "sharper" lines. That is to say their clients are more likely to be winning than an average player and the sum of money bet into their lines will contain a higher % of sharp money to public money. The ratio in the market as a whole may be 65%/35% public to sharp and Pinny may be closer to 50/50. Some books shade their lines to try and split the money wagered whereas Pinny try and split the result. This all makes Pinny much harder to beat in the long run but it makes their prices a far better guide to what is going to happen on the field.

 This total opened 47 and is heading towards 46 although it is currently 46.5. If it does move again I would say 46 is more likely than 47 despite the public always betting over every Monday.

 20 and 26.5 are the current "correct" numbers for each team's total so backing over 46.5 at evs should currently be neutral ev while backing it at 1.97 should lose you a smidge each time.

[peejaytwo]

Thx for your quick reply Neil, I'm always keen to be with the "sharp minds" at Pinny.
Hope they're wrong this time

[bobby1]

There was a big storm earlier in the day and it's about a 30% chance of rain at kick off too. The wind is pretty light at the moment but is always stronger at the stadium as the wind comes off the lake. If it is raining on kick off then it might not be very friendly for point scoring.

[tikay]

The Chicago totals........

Bit thin this, but Phil (Bobby1) is currently on his annual "Lads Trip" to America, taking in a bunch of NFL games, & some Basketball.

He is in Chicago tonight, currently in a Sports Bar, (doubtless celebrating Swindon winning the Elite Speedway Final, .........) and getting ready to attend the game.

He just text me to say that it was "hammering down with rain" until an hour ago, & there is a 30% chance of rain come kick off time. He mentioned that the wind is blowing off the Lake, too.

This all suggests it will not be "point-friendly" tonight (his words, not mine, obv), but I have no idea if all that is in the line already.

[tikay]

Lol, scooped me by 12 seconds!