Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 Having a bit of busy week and not spent much time on NFL so far.

 I was half hoping this Thursday game would go to 7 so I could bet Tampa. It now looks more likely to go to 5. If you can get +6.5 Tampa I would definitely take that. I amy take +6.5.

 The syndicates have bet the over early which is probably them just frontrunning the public who always bet over when there is just one game on TV. It's heading towards 43.5 now.

 
 

[bobby1]

Going to suggest playing a weather angle on some college football games. Obv there is a hurricane forecast for just on/off the east coast of the US this weekend so it it will have varying degrees of impact at games but as it stands now it does seem that Carolina will get some very iffy weather on Saturday. The good thing is there are 3 college games in the state on that day. The generic weather forecasts are a bit vague but I have got a more in depth forecast so it seems to make sense to play the under in the following games. The caveat being that when playing under in groups of games because of weather it usually means if the weather is as bad as you expect then you are probably going to be the right side of all three lines, if it isn't then you might just be on at the right line or needing a bit of luck.

I have bet these myself and have put some on for the thread should Tony want them as a couple of them have started to move and he is unavailable until much later tonight. If he doesn't want them or anyone strongly disagrees I am happy to just keep the bits I have put on for Tony.

£55 under 49 at10/11 with Bwin Navy at East Carolina
£55 under 55.5 at 10/11 with Bwin NC State at North Carolina
£55 under 57 at 9/10 with Pinnacle Tennessee at South Carolina, I think that might have changed now and the 57 on oddschecker with Stan is not their line now. It is 57 with Skybet but at 1.85 so I guess that line is being bet into by others too.

Will be interesting to see how the lines move nearer to kick off. I backed an under in a game 2 weeks ago on a Thursday evening that fell 6 1/2 points before the Saturday kick off and was so badly affected that they actually had to suspend the game in the 2nd qtr, it finished 40 points under the spread. So hopefully we might get the brunt of the weather go our way this week too, if it's not quite as bad as expected then we just have to get a bit of run good and can still win.

I also bet the under in a game the same weekend that fell by only 2 1/2 and as I tuned in to watch the game it was just getting windy but wasn't anywhere near as bad as I expected. What really tilted me up is during the game they frequently had a severe weather warning banner scrolling across the screen for later in the day and by the time the underdog scored a td from the halfway line with 50 seconds left to go over my line by 2 points a lot of the crowd had left the game as it was raining sideways and the wind had got pretty strong. So you can miss by a matter of hours too.

cheers

[redarmi]

Going to suggest playing a weather angle on some college football games. Obv there is a hurricane forecast for just on/off the east coast of the US this weekend so it it will have varying degrees of impact at games but as it stands now it does seem that Carolina will get some very iffy weather on Saturday. The good thing is there are 3 college games in the state on that day. The generic weather forecasts are a bit vague but I have got a more in depth forecast so it seems to make sense to play the under in the following games. The caveat being that when playing under in groups of games because of weather it usually means if the weather is as bad as you expect then you are probably going to be the right side of all three lines, if it isn't then you might just be on at the right line or needing a bit of luck.

I have bet these myself and have put some on for the thread should Tony want them as a couple of them have started to move and he is unavailable until much later tonight. If he doesn't want them or anyone strongly disagrees I am happy to just keep the bits I have put on for Tony.

£55 under 49 at10/11 with Bwin Navy at East Carolina
£55 under 55.5 at 10/11 with Bwin NC State at North Carolina
£55 under 57 at 9/10 with Pinnacle Tennessee at South Carolina, I think that might have changed now and the 57 on oddschecker with Stan is not their line now. It is 57 with Skybet but at 1.85 so I guess that line is being bet into by others too.

Will be interesting to see how the lines move nearer to kick off. I backed an under in a game 2 weeks ago on a Thursday evening that fell 6 1/2 points before the Saturday kick off and was so badly affected that they actually had to suspend the game in the 2nd qtr, it finished 40 points under the spread. So hopefully we might get the brunt of the weather go our way this week too, if it's not quite as bad as expected then we just have to get a bit of run good and can still win.

cheers

I was going to post something similar myself but my angle was going to be slightly different.  i was going to have doubles and a treble as they are correlated.  Irrespective this is something we should move on today as a lot of people try and bet their college totals on a Thursday afternoon as a few respected services release then and get the better numbers.

[bobby1]

yes, I have added a small treble in myself but didn't include it on the thread, if there had been 5 or 6 games I knew for certain now that could be affected I might have played the multi's too. There are a couple of other college games that might fall into the path but will probably get a better idea 2morrow. It's a pity the Wake Forest game is 2night as that would have been bang in it on Saturday. Two NFL totals worth keeping an eye on too are the Jets and Philly games, the storm seems to be loitering with intent off the coast on Sunday but it still only takes a small change and they could get it come kick off.

[class]

In the cricket tomorrow, Jacques Rudolph is in action again. Does the top runscorer for the titans bet still stand?

[hector62]

No that bet will have been refunded as a non runner.

[class]

Sorry, I meant as in tomorrow's game does the same tip apply?

[hector62]

As long as you get the 5-2 which is generally available then yes. He is far and away the best batter they have and Sydney 6ers don't have a top class spinner to worry him.

[Horneris]

world

[horseplayer]

sorry i didnt reply earlier didnt see the post

the other reasoning was that the match odds had started to move everywhere with the team news but the team to score first goal market had only moved with most and not vc
infact the price i suggested went in thirty minutes and was a lot shorter come kick off

appreciate the bet was questioned but i would not put up a bet like that on a whim or without feeling there was a rick

having watched the game cavani not starting made a massive difference but have to say dnipro were very very impressive under juande ramos.

[scotty2hatty]

sorry i didnt reply earlier didnt see the post

the other reasoning was that the match odds had started to move everywhere with the team news but the team to score first goal market had only moved with most and not vc
infact the price i suggested went in thirty minutes and was a lot shorter come kick off

appreciate the bet was questioned but i would not put up a bet like that on a whim or without feeling there was a rick

having watched the game cavani not starting made a massive difference but have to say dnipro were very very impressive under juande ramos.

Just saw they scored in 2nd minute, nice work again sir.

[TightEnd]

He wasn't helped by his receivers, or his OL or himself really but against the odds he just made it

No one else was, but at 4am I had a sweat on, and he completed passes of 22 and 19 yds in garbage time to get it htere!

Passing   CP/AT   YDS   TD   INT
Ponder   19/35   251   1   1

[hector62]

Dr Noh shoots second round -5 but is still 2 behind Charlie Wi. Let's hope he improves by another 5 shots in the next round.

[TightEnd]

Saturday League 2

Torquay v Morecambe over 2.5 goals at 4/5 Coral

Torquay score for fun at home, 16 in 7 home games. In only two of those seven home games has over 2.5 not come in

Morecambe 10 in 7 away games

Little bit of local knowledge here too, I "discovered" Torquay's striker Rene Howe aged 17 playing on a Bedford park in Sunday league in 2003. He was apprenticed in a factory, I found out, and had enormous pace. Looked a raw talent

I was heavily involved in Bedford Town FC at the time, financially as well sadly, and recommended the manager had a look. The assistant manager went along next Sunday, and they signed him on the spot

He scored over 30 goals in under two years, and got the club (virtually singlehandedly) into the Conference South

He was a big lad for an 18 yo and tore the Southern League to pieces, when not being torn to peices by lumbering centre halves himself



At that point he was scouted into the the conference by Kettering then into the league by Peterborough where he didn't quite break through and was loaned out for a couple of seasons, to lots of places, where he scored a few everywhere

Bedford, without him, went straight back to the Southern League and haven't threatened promotion since

Rene now plays for Torquay United, and I follow them from afar

Has scored 7 in the last 9, and is a real handful in League 2 particularly now he has settled a bit with an exteended contract at the end of last season

Not a huge fan of the hair these days though

[horseplayer]

sorry i didnt reply earlier didnt see the post

the other reasoning was that the match odds had started to move everywhere with the team news but the team to score first goal market had only moved with most and not vc
infact the price i suggested went in thirty minutes and was a lot shorter come kick off

appreciate the bet was questioned but i would not put up a bet like that on a whim or without feeling there was a rick

having watched the game cavani not starting made a massive difference but have to say dnipro were very very impressive under juande ramos.

Just saw they scored in 2nd minute, nice work again sir.

ty scotty