Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Del Potro won last night to get us back in with a small snifff in the tennis.  Likely has to beat Rog on Saturday(?) to get through though.

Not sure what happens if he loses to Fed and Ferrer loses to Tipsarevic.  Guess it will be game difference in which case the 6-0 set for Delpo last night may help us.  But we have to assume Ferrer will beat Tipsarevic in any case.

Yup, still in there with a chance.

You are correct - he plays on Saturday, "not before 12.45pm". See....

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Scores/schedule.aspx?EventId=605

His current price?


http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/mens-tour/atp-world-tour-finals/winner

[Tonji]

Our Mutual Friend, tighty, has exceeded our Great Expectations.

His NFL American Notes, have lifted the gloom in this Bleak House.

Bilbao & Lyon, that Tale of Two Cities, has lifted the Hard Times.

[david3103]

Our Mutual Friend, tighty, has exceeded our Great Expectations.

His NFL American Notes, have lifted the gloom in this Bleak House.

Bilbao & Lyon, that Tale of Two Cities, has lifted the Hard Times.

 

[Tal]

It was a far, far better thing that Tonji did today than I could ever have done.

[hector62]

Mr T. We came close to making money on the Tennis thingy last time so I have another for you. This one has no opportunity for ditherage problems, which is good news.

Djokovic v Berdych.

In the Murray last match Berdych looked very good for a set and a half, then his head went down and played like a frenchie. If he wins today then he has a chance of progressing so he should be competitive. I am not sure he is good enough to beat Djokovic but I think he will win a set. I think a bet on there being 3 sets in the match could be profitable. It went to 3 sets when they played in this event last year, as well as when they played on clay earlier this season. It is on the slower surfaces that Berdych gets closer to Djokovic.

Suggest £20 on 3 sets @ 2-1 with Bluesquare.

[Tal]

The draw for the London Chess Classic has been made, three weeks before the off, which is a break from tradition (normally just the day before).

A few interesting dynamics, as holding the White pieces is an advantage in chess. Carlsen will play arguably more dangerous players as Black (Nakamura, McShane, Kramnik and Adams) but his game is generally less affected by colours than some, as his quieter style often means he wins games in the endgame (when the advantage of the first move has been nullified). He's 5/6 to win.

Kramnik has a decent record in this event and with white against two of the weaker players in the tournament (Jones and Polgar) might do well. 7/2 looks interesting.

I can't see Anand getting close and even 11/2 is short IMO.

Aronian is world number 2 but has a tendency not to seal the deal in big comps. He has good individual performances and will be top 3 in all likelihood but I would be surprised if he were value at 3/1.

The rest will cause some surprises - Adams is a strong player but results against the top ten are far too infrequent; McShane will cause an upset somewhere and his resourceful style will make for compelling games; Jones is a fighting player with some super-sharp variations up his sleeve but on debut at this level and, as horseplayer might say, best watched.

There won't be much if any games from any of those involved between now and the off, so data will be limited.

Carlsen's first three games are tough on paper (McShane, Aronian and Kramnik, two as Black), but the tourney will be won by winning games, rather than surviving. The points structure is the football model of 3/1/0 so Anand who draws a lot is at a significant disadvantage to Aronian and Nakamura who have wins and losses against their name in most comps and to Carlsen who has a never say die attitude in seemingly drawn positions and ekes out extra wins.

Does Fred like 5/6 or do we wait and hope other markets touch even money or beyond? My suspicion is the latter might be better, although if not much will be wagered, it only takes a decent bet on Magnus for hopes of nice odds to fade.

Only Ladbrokes is offering a market at present that I can see.

[ACE2M]

Betfair today announce redundancies. Jesus, who the f&*k is running that ship!

[tikay]

Mr T. We came close to making money on the Tennis thingy last time so I have another for you. This one has no opportunity for ditherage problems, which is good news.

Djokovic v Berdych.

In the Murray last match Berdych looked very good for a set and a half, then his head went down and played like a frenchie. If he wins today then he has a chance of progressing so he should be competitive. I am not sure he is good enough to beat Djokovic but I think he will win a set. I think a bet on there being 3 sets in the match could be profitable. It went to 3 sets when they played in this event last year, as well as when they played on clay earlier this season. It is on the slower surfaces that Berdych gets closer to Djokovic.

Suggest £20 on 3 sets @ 2-1 with Bluesquare.

Bit busy right now, so the bare bones are, we are on, £20 @ 2/1, Blue Square, 3 sets, Djokovich v Berdych. .

Thanks hector.

ON

Three Sets @ 2/1 
Market
 Total Sets
 
Event
 ATP World Tour Finals
Novak Djokovic v Tomas Berdych
2012-11-09 13:55:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-09 13:05:15
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000130
 

[class]

Berdych blows two set points, and the bet goes South, unlucky Hector.

On a side note, is it just me that wants to smack the living delights out of Djokovic? He just has one of those faces....

[DungBeetle]

Jeez Berdych had 3 set points in a row in the TB and blew them.  Think he lost 5 straight points from 6-3

[moonandback]

college basketball starts tonight and i think i have a bet for you in the Maryland-Kentucky game, Kentucky won the national championships last year and are ranked 3rd in the nation to start this year but they lost all there starters to the NBA. now they have replaced them with talented freshmen but i have heard the coach say that they don't rebound or take care of the ball and perhaps most tellingly that they have no real vocal leader on the court. for this reason i think they may struggle early on this year. and because they are such a big program they will still have plenty of support from the ice creams! most bookies make them 10 pt favourites I suggest backing a deep Maryland team maybe £44 Maryland +10  @ 10/11.

[hector62]

Yep 3 set points and he blew it. I feel violated, and not in a nice way.

[TightEnd]

Last night the exciting test series between Australia and South Africa started in Brisbane

My strong fancy pre-series was for S Africa, but was hesitant to put up a bet before the toss of the first game as to win the toss first and bat at Brisbane is crucial

It's a hard, flat pitch, a batting paradise for a few days in any match

South Africa won the toss and batted

I made it to the lunch break, and fell asleep

Amla, thread's friend, and Kallis batted for most of the day and they finished 255-2

Plan will be to bat all day today, get 550 and bat once in the match


After play Duminy, the 7 bat and spinner, ruptured his achilles tendon playing touch rugby, so that has to be taken into account


So....

the interesting thing about the Australian team is Watson is injured

in the top 3 therefore we have Ed Cowan, average under 30 in 7 tests. Below top class, attritional bat. We also have Rob Quiney making his debut with a career average under 40 in under 50 first class games. He's a one day banger, not really a test number 3 as far as I can tell from limited views

We have Ponting at 37, not quite the player he was, particularly early in an innings

and we have Warner, Clarke and M Hussey...all better than good, and genuine test class/better

but if you put this top six of

Cowan
Warner
Quiney
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey

against

Steyn
Morkel
Philander
Kallis
Kleinveldt

and ask whether South Africa can take 20 wickets in 3 days to win it, without a spin option, and 500 on the board I think the answer is probably more likely yes than no because without Watson this top six is supsect in places

Of course South Africa might not make 500 (Australia have  anew ball first thing), but I think its more likely they do than don't. Even if they don't it increases the chances of a result..so you have a two way opportunity....


All summer we went through calculations on the thread with respect to SA games like this, Amla batted all summer and on each occasion SA came through, took the wickets and won and the England top six is better than the Australian top six

To my mind, the S Africans are odds on to win this match

The market has the draw odds on.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-south-africa/australia-v-south-africa-tests/australia-v-south-africa-%5B1st-test%5D/winner

I disagree strongly

I recommend £40 S Africa to win at 7/4



(7 of the last 9 Tests at Brisbane have seen positive results

6 of those 9 won by the team batting first, 3 by an innings

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-new-zealand-2011/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=209;type=ground)

 


 

[TightEnd]

p.s  play resumes at midnight our time

[hector62]

I would fancy SA to make 500 too as my favourite batsman, JR , is still to come in and he can play the new ball as well as anyone. No idea about the pitch as I wasn't watching. Weather report?