Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

If I can conextualise the 2010 games, the France game was in rotten weather, the Italy game was full of awful handling errors and poor discipline and Wales played so badly Garland dropped the captain Ryan Jones immediately after the match.

And the 2009 games Ireland 41 Fiji 6, Scotland 23 Fiji 10.

Both under 47.5, mind.

Price still looks good for all the other reasons, tho. England have much bigger games ahead. Need to secure 4th in the world spot (which we currently hold) to ensure we avoid the big 3 in the world cup groups.

[scotty2hatty]

The UFC jumps to China for the first ever time and in the main event we have the former champion Rich Franklin (29-6) taking on Cung Le (8-2). This will be Le's first ever 5 round fight, whilst Franklin has had many, and I think the bet is to play Franklin in the latter rounds. Le has shown a tendency to tire quickly, even in his 3 rounders and I can't see him lasting the distance.

Franklin, in his early career was an out and out finisher - with lots of early finishes. Recently his fights have been lasting longer. He only has 6 decisions on his record and 4 of those have came in his last 6 fights which show his fights are tending to last longer. While this might lead you to think a decision victory might be the option, I don't think Le can last 5 and fancy him to really struggle if it goes deep. Franklin will keep the constant pressure and he should overwhelm Le when he is gassed out and grab the late stoppage win.

The problem lies with the aforementioned ditherage. Round 4 was 10/1 best price yesterday and 18/1 was the best on offer for the 5th round. This morning we are offered 8/1 and 12/1. We've missed the price by a fair bit on R5 but I still think it is just a playable price and I wouldn't want to just bet R4 as the value lies in covering both. PP have them at 13/2 and 15/2 so I think we still have a fair price.

The next issue is that the 12/1 is with SkyBet. Ladbrokes are 11/1. I've reduced my recommended bet size accordingly.

Recommend £10 on Rich Franklin to win in Round 4 @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes.
Recommend £10 on Rich Franklin to win in Round 5 @ 11/1 with Ladbrokes.

Ladbrokes also offer a round group betting market and are offering Franklin to win in rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 5/2. Given that R3 is 11/2, and I think it could be a player, how do we determine if that is good value? I'm be interested in learning a little on this.

Event is in China so takes place shortly I believe so if you wish to bet it get on as soon as you can.

[tikay]

The UFC jumps to China for the first ever time and in the main event we have the former champion Rich Franklin (29-6) taking on Cung Le (8-2). This will be Le's first ever 5 round fight, whilst Franklin has had many, and I think the bet is to play Franklin in the latter rounds. Le has shown a tendency to tire quickly, even in his 3 rounders and I can't see him lasting the distance.

Franklin, in his early career was an out and out finisher - with lots of early finishes. Recently his fights have been lasting longer. He only has 6 decisions on his record and 4 of those have came in his last 6 fights which show his fights are tending to last longer. While this might lead you to think a decision victory might be the option, I don't think Le can last 5 and fancy him to really struggle if it goes deep. Franklin will keep the constant pressure and he should overwhelm Le when he is gassed out and grab the late stoppage win.

The problem lies with the aforementioned ditherage. Round 4 was 10/1 best price yesterday and 18/1 was the best on offer for the 5th round. This morning we are offered 8/1 and 12/1. We've missed the price by a fair bit on R5 but I still think it is just a playable price and I wouldn't want to just bet R4 as the value lies in covering both. PP have them at 13/2 and 15/2 so I think we still have a fair price.

The next issue is that the 12/1 is with SkyBet. Ladbrokes are 11/1. I've reduced my recommended bet size accordingly.

Recommend £10 on Rich Franklin to win in Round 4 @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes.
Recommend £10 on Rich Franklin to win in Round 5 @ 11/1 with Ladbrokes.

Ladbrokes also offer a round group betting market and are offering Franklin to win in rounds 3, 4 or 5 at 5/2. Given that R3 is 11/2, and I think it could be a player, how do we determine if that is good value? I'm be interested in learning a little on this.

Event is in China so takes place shortly I believe so if you wish to bet it get on as soon as you can.

Thanks scotty.

The R4 & R5 bets are on, & we'll wait & see what the Maths whizzes think of that 5/2 for Rounds 3/4/5 combined. 

£10 Franklin, R4 @ 8/1, Ladbrokes

£10 Franklin, R5, 11/1, Ladbrokes

ON


Selection8/1 - Rich Franklin - Round 4

EventCung Le v Rich Franklin UFC

MarketRound betting
 
 Selection11/1 - Rich Franklin - Round 5

EventCung Le v Rich Franklin UFC

MarketRound betting
 
Your bets (2)
 Single - Rich Franklin - Round 4
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential Return: £90.00
Time: 10/11/12 11:44
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000176

  Single - Rich Franklin - Round 5
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential Return: £120.00
Time: 10/11/12 11:44
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000177

[tentwowilldo]

Chelsea v Liverpool Most of the starting 11 for Liverpool didn't even travel to Russia so will be very fresh, Chelsea had a very tough game against Shakhtar as well as a Man u double header a away leg at Shakhtar where Roberto has not had chance to rotate his squad.Gary Neville spoke about miles on the legs the likes of Oscar and Hazzard might be due a rest i don't think Torres has had a good game against Liverpool 3/1 or dnb 7/4 looks not bad to me

[tikay]

Chelsea v Liverpool Most of the starting 11 for Liverpool didn't even travel to Russia so will be very fresh, Chelsea had a very tough game against Shakhtar as well as a Man u double header a away leg at Shakhtar where Roberto has not had chance to rotate his squad.Gary Neville spoke about miles on the legs the likes of Oscar and Hazzard might be due a rest i don't think Torres has had a good game against Liverpool 3/1 or dnb 7/4 looks not bad to me

There we go - the opposite view. Good stuff, thanks. The tiredness thng, which Mr Neville noted, is interesting.

Still, think we'd need to be brave to back Liverpool away to Chelsea @ 3/1, though at 4/1 or more - which was what I expected - it would be very tempting.

[Tonji]

A friend in France informed me The Vendee Round the Globe Yacht race started today, & recommended Jérémie Beyou as a good bet 

[Snowball]

 Taylors 3/1.Im on route to my fourth Hills shop with my tenners

[tikay]

Taylors 3/1.Im on route to my fourth Hills shop with my tenners

Ooh, thanks for the nudge, I was laying in the bath, contemplating little things, & I had clean forgotten.

We have £10 @ 3/1 with Wm Hill, Phil Taylor to win the Darty Grand Slammy, bet owned by Snowball.

ON

10 Nov 2012 - Phil Taylor - to win The William Hill Grand Slam of Darts (10/11/12) - Limited Availability

Phil 'the Power' Taylor - Priority Price @ 3/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £40.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000164/F

[tikay]

A friend in France informed me The Vendee Round the Globe Yacht race started today, & recommended Jérémie Beyou as a good bet 

You must keep very refined company Tonji.  I get tips for Darts, snooker, & football, you get Yacht Racing.

[redarmi]

Chelsea v Liverpool Most of the starting 11 for Liverpool didn't even travel to Russia so will be very fresh, Chelsea had a very tough game against Shakhtar as well as a Man u double header a away leg at Shakhtar where Roberto has not had chance to rotate his squad.Gary Neville spoke about miles on the legs the likes of Oscar and Hazzard might be due a rest i don't think Torres has had a good game against Liverpool 3/1 or dnb 7/4 looks not bad to me

Whilst all of this is true and Liverpool seem to match up well against Chelsea in recent years there is still simply nothing to justify Chelsea being evens in this spot.  I have backed Chelsea and the only reason I didn't post is that I am in danger of sounding like a broken record.  Liverpool are a mid table side at best at the moment.  They are maybe as good or a little worse than a Newcastle, Everton type team.  They are consistently priced as an Arsenal/Tottenham type team.  Nothing seems to change this and week in week out they provide us with wages.

[smashedagain]

A friend in France informed me The Vendee Round the Globe Yacht race started today, & recommended Jérémie Beyou as a good bet 

You must keep very refined company Tonji.  I get tips for Darts, snooker, & football, you get Yacht Racing.

over the weekend my chums and I will be watching our teams competing in the Tiki trophy at Ascot whilst the oiks will be following their teams at Druids Lodge. Toodle pip.

[tikay]

Chelsea vs Liverpool.

Chelsea are evens with lad broke and hills ( and I'm sure with others).

Following an depth post from tikay, I'm still not sure what makes a bet and this "true odds" scenario.

But the recent theme if Liverpool odds being history driven rather than actual talent/form, this has to be a value bet if the weekend?!

We just come back from a long Russia trip, on Thursday. Chelsea played at home and with a boosting late win.
We don't play we'll at the bridge (unless its dalglish playing or managing)
Terry back after ban will give them presence
We are miles away from them in form, players etc
They really should be comfortable odds on
I'm a Liverpool fan and this is one of the most painful post I've ever done!

Wazzy.

We've had the hint, the nudge, the bit of warmth I was looking for, so lets do it.

We have a rather chunky £50 on Chelsea to beat Livepool at Evens. Quite a big bet all things considered, but my personal view, not usually taken into account (with good reason), swayed it. A 3 goal thriller would do nicely for all sorts of reasons.

Chelsea to beat Liverpool tomorrow, £50 @ Evens with Ladbrokes.

Thank you.

ON


Selectionevens - Chelsea

EventChelsea v Liverpool English

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Chelsea
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Potential Return: £100.00
Time: 10/11/12 12:59
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000178

[Waz1892]

Chelsea vs Liverpool.

Chelsea are evens with lad broke and hills ( and I'm sure with others).

Following an depth post from tikay, I'm still not sure what makes a bet and this "true odds" scenario.

But the recent theme if Liverpool odds being history driven rather than actual talent/form, this has to be a value bet if the weekend?!

We just come back from a long Russia trip, on Thursday. Chelsea played at home and with a boosting late win.
We don't play we'll at the bridge (unless its dalglish playing or managing)
Terry back after ban will give them presence
We are miles away from them in form, players etc
They really should be comfortable odds on
I'm a Liverpool fan and this is one of the most painful post I've ever done!

Wazzy.

We've had the hint, the nudge, the bit of warmth I was looking for, so lets do it.

We have a rather chunky £50 on Chelsea to beat Livepool at Evens. Quite a big bet all things considered, but my personal view, not usually taken into account (with good reason), swayed it. A 3 goal thriller would do nicely for all sorts of reasons.

Chelsea to beat Liverpool tomorrow, £50 @ Evens with Ladbrokes.

Thank you.

ON


Selectionevens - Chelsea

EventChelsea v Liverpool English

MarketMatch betting
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Chelsea
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Potential Return: £100.00
Time: 10/11/12 12:59
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000178

My heart is broken, but my head 100% totally agrees.

[Teacake]

Bet victor are offering an enhanced odds acca on Wales, Italy, France and South Africa of 100/30, taking best prices it would come in at 11/4. Max bet £200.

I have no clue about Rugby and not suggesting a bet for Fred due to it being an acca but I thought I would share.

[tikay]

Bet victor are offering an enhanced odds acca on Wales, Italy, France and South Africa of 100/30, taking best prices it would come in at 11/4. Max bet £200.

I have no clue about Rugby and not suggesting a bet for Fred due to it being an acca but I thought I would share.

Thanks Bud. Means nothing to me, but others may have a view.

Accas, ugh.......I heard somewhere that there is a blonde thread that specialises in such things.