Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Stevenage wheels are coming right off and they're travelling to Bournemouth at a bad time tomorrow night.

Bournemouth to win at half- and full-time @ 15/8 with Coral.

Rec £40 at that price, ta. Also a chuckaway fiver on Cherries to hit 4+ @ 7-1 with VCdon'tbet

Thanks chompers.

I'll look at that a bit later, Oddschecker is down at present.

What price is a "straight" Bournemouth win?

We (Cherries) are a completely rejuvenated team since the return of manager Eddie Howe.....certainly unbeaten in the last 7 matches, with 6 wins off the top of my head. We are scoring a few goals each match....but we do sometimes have a slow/uneventful first half!....ie on Sat it was 0-0 at half time and then 4-1 second half.
Certainly we are flying atm and no injury worries. Also a couple more well off Russians have joined the board, so looking OK for the future.
So personally , being nitty if I was to bet, I would just back the win,...but it prob the correct price, so not really a Fred type bet to just win on the nose ?

4/5 is the correct price if Stevenage's current league position is taken at face value. But if anyone wants a straight bet that they finish outside the top ten I'm in.

[tikay]

Stevenage wheels are coming right off and they're travelling to Bournemouth at a bad time tomorrow night.

Bournemouth to win at half- and full-time @ 15/8 with Coral.

Rec £40 at that price, ta. Also a chuckaway fiver on Cherries to hit 4+ @ 7-1 with VCdon'tbet

Thanks chompers.

I'll look at that a bit later, Oddschecker is down at present.

What price is a "straight" Bournemouth win?

We (Cherries) are a completely rejuvenated team since the return of manager Eddie Howe.....certainly unbeaten in the last 7 matches, with 6 wins off the top of my head. We are scoring a few goals each match....but we do sometimes have a slow/uneventful first half!....ie on Sat it was 0-0 at half time and then 4-1 second half.
Certainly we are flying atm and no injury worries. Also a couple more well off Russians have joined the board, so looking OK for the future.
So personally , being nitty if I was to bet, I would just back the win,...but it prob the correct price, so not really a Fred type bet to just win on the nose ?

Of the last 6 games, they have won 5 & drawn 1. They led at half time in 3 of them. 

Prior to that – presumably pre Manager change? – they lost 4 from 6, & drew the other two.

The current price for a straight win, 4/5, is challenged by Chomps assertion that Stevenage current position is false & they are on the slide.

[Nico29]

Tikay the 170 bet was def value and the fact that it won does not make any difference whatsoever to me saying this.

In a normal game of darts comprising of 30 odd legs i'd expect the 170 check out to be left 1/2 times-bar when the wizard or mvg plays.

In an MVG game right now we are talking 4/5 times minimum.

Also the fact that going into the final he'd hit it 3 times in 2 matches led me to believe that there was a greater chance of it happening again than normal.

The books normally price up such an eventuality at around 6/7-1 from my experience. However, here that price needed to be trimmed.

The fact that Stans/Betfred didn't change their prices-until others like myself forced them to-was a clear value opportunity-price was wrong-9/2/5-1 was correct.

All subjective I suppose, and thankfully it got me out of the hole that i'd dug by backing mvg rather large mid comp and on the handicap in the final.

Won't suggest anymore bets for fred, feels too much like unless you are a fred reg they have to be verified thrice over by those considered shrewd like Chompy*.


*Man's a legend.

[ripple11]

Stevenage wheels are coming right off and they're travelling to Bournemouth at a bad time tomorrow night.

Bournemouth to win at half- and full-time @ 15/8 with Coral.

Rec £40 at that price, ta. Also a chuckaway fiver on Cherries to hit 4+ @ 7-1 with VCdon'tbet

Thanks chompers.

I'll look at that a bit later, Oddschecker is down at present.

What price is a "straight" Bournemouth win?

We (Cherries) are a completely rejuvenated team since the return of manager Eddie Howe.....certainly unbeaten in the last 7 matches, with 6 wins off the top of my head. We are scoring a few goals each match....but we do sometimes have a slow/uneventful first half!....ie on Sat it was 0-0 at half time and then 4-1 second half.
Certainly we are flying atm and no injury worries. Also a couple more well off Russians have joined the board, so looking OK for the future.
So personally , being nitty if I was to bet, I would just back the win,...but it prob the correct price, so not really a Fred type bet to just win on the nose ?

Of the last 6 games, they have won 5 & drawn 1. They led at half time in 3 of them. 

Prior to that – presumably pre Manager change? – they lost 4 from 6, & drew the other two.

The current price for a straight win, 4/5, is challenged by Chomps assertion that Stevenage current position is false & they are on the slide.

Also since Stevenage have shipped 8 goals in the last two matches and Cherries are scoring well as Chompy says......maybe a little bit on a  -1 handicap bet paying about 11/5, as well as the 4/5 win ?

[tikay]

I'm sorry you feel that way Dom, but if every bet I do not place causes that reaction, the thread would be dead now. Ultimately, it is my money, & I only bet when I'm convinced we are right by those who know the specific sport better than me, (we have a whole bunch of specialists here) & have good value.

I specifically thanked you for the bet, & sought other opinions.

I got this opinion from a proven darts regular.....

...."The 3 170's have been the only one's of the Tournament so far and i'm not sure if 6/1 is value or not??....."

At that point, the Tourney had been in progress for an entire week. It was that which cast the doubt in my mind.

So I took another look, & saw that it was (for a 170 checkout) 8/1 Barney, 6/1 MVG, & 4/1 either. I needed to understand the "value maths" of that, so I asked again on thread, & I got the answer, but by then MVG had dropped to 5/1, so the value had changed

It was a close run thing, & I wavered both ways. In fact I so very nearly placed it, it looked a great "fun" bet, a Mini-Banzai if you like, but the 6/1 had gone by the time I finished dithering. I was also pretty busy at the time doing other stuff, trying to watch the NFL, though I'm not sure I should have to justify how I spend my time.

I also mentioned this specific bet in my Daily Report today as a "missed winner", it's not like I brushed it under the carpet.

I try & get verification, warmth or support from the "experts" in almost EVERY proposed bet, unless they come from someone with a proven track record of profitability. Why would I not, this is my money?

Bets proposed here are NOT just for the "official" Fred account, either - ANYONE can pick & choose from the thread whatever they want to, & that is half the idea of the thread. I have no doubt plenty of folks took the 170 bet. Why does it make such a difference that I chose to swerve, rightly or wrongly? If I made a mistake it's too bad, but it does not stop others backing tips put up here.

It was probably a mistake on my part, but I'm very surprised by your reaction. I make a lot of mistakes, as I'm the only one who has to make the "Fred" decision. Try wearing those shoes sometime.

Bets DO have to be verified, for the most part, we get some really daft bets up here, & we'd have gone skinto by March if I did not seek the advice of others, as I don't know enough about almost any sport. I assumed you knew that, no?

I will not be placing bets "blind" anytime soon, that is not the idea.

   

[tikay]

Stevenage wheels are coming right off and they're travelling to Bournemouth at a bad time tomorrow night.

Bournemouth to win at half- and full-time @ 15/8 with Coral.

Rec £40 at that price, ta. Also a chuckaway fiver on Cherries to hit 4+ @ 7-1 with VCdon'tbet

Thanks chompers.

I'll look at that a bit later, Oddschecker is down at present.

What price is a "straight" Bournemouth win?

We (Cherries) are a completely rejuvenated team since the return of manager Eddie Howe.....certainly unbeaten in the last 7 matches, with 6 wins off the top of my head. We are scoring a few goals each match....but we do sometimes have a slow/uneventful first half!....ie on Sat it was 0-0 at half time and then 4-1 second half.
Certainly we are flying atm and no injury worries. Also a couple more well off Russians have joined the board, so looking OK for the future.
So personally , being nitty if I was to bet, I would just back the win,...but it prob the correct price, so not really a Fred type bet to just win on the nose ?

Of the last 6 games, they have won 5 & drawn 1. They led at half time in 3 of them. 

Prior to that – presumably pre Manager change? – they lost 4 from 6, & drew the other two.

The current price for a straight win, 4/5, is challenged by Chomps assertion that Stevenage current position is false & they are on the slide.

Also since Stevenage have shipped 8 goals in the last two matches and Cherries are scoring well as Chompy says......maybe a little bit on a  -1 handicap bet paying about 11/5, as well as the 4/5 win ?

Possibly, yes. Personally, I'd go the nitty route & take 4/5 the straight win. Let's wait a while & see what develops.

[ripple11]

Just noticed Boyles go 8/11 him over 100.5 average, he has a Tournament average of 102.68 and surely Barney will push him all the way.

Good spot ,ul, but thanks for the tip.

Not a great follower of darts....but really looking forward to the sweat with MVG in the World Championships next month

[tikay]

Just noticed Boyles go 8/11 him over 100.5 average, he has a Tournament average of 102.68 and surely Barney will push him all the way.

Good spot ,ul, but thanks for the tip.

Not a great follower of darts....but really looking forward to the sweat with MVG in the World Championships next month

Lol & FML!

I bet THAT one of course......!

As I said this morning, in the DR, my timing was all wrong yesterday.

[hector62]

Tikay the 170 bet was def value and the fact that it won does not make any difference whatsoever to me saying this.

In a normal game of darts comprising of 30 odd legs i'd expect the 170 check out to be left 1/2 times-bar when the wizard or mvg plays.

In an MVG game right now we are talking 4/5 times minimum.

Also the fact that going into the final he'd hit it 3 times in 2 matches led me to believe that there was a greater chance of it happening again than normal.

The books normally price up such an eventuality at around 6/7-1 from my experience. However, here that price needed to be trimmed.

The fact that Stans/Betfred didn't change their prices-until others like myself forced them to-was a clear value opportunity-price was wrong-9/2/5-1 was correct.

All subjective I suppose, and thankfully it got me out of the hole that i'd dug by backing mvg rather large mid comp and on the handicap in the final.

Won't suggest anymore bets for fred, feels too much like unless you are a fred reg they have to be verified thrice over by those considered shrewd like Chompy*.


*Man's a legend.

Just because Tikay didn't back it doesn't mean that other more shrewd people didn't get drawn to the bet by your suggestion and back it themselves and are very grateful to you for it. You have to remember that we had a bad month last month and I think there is some reticence from Tikay to return this months had earned profits to the bookies.

So please keep posting as this thread is not just about getting Tikay to bet, it is also about people with a knowledge of a sport pointing bets out for the rest. As an aside I didn't get my first ever  bet recommendation accepted by Tikay, and yes even 7 months later it still hurts as it won at 9/4. I am even happy to steal bets from other threads and other websites if they look good.


 

[tikay]

Hector explains it better than my tl:dr effort!

And dropping all that money last month, & then winning most of it back this month, HAS jarred my confidence a bit, & I'm being more careful. Or trying to be.......

I think we learn more by losing, & dropping £900 last month (for which I took all the responsibility) taught me a great deal. I think thats a good thing.

[Chompy]

Yuh, keep sticking them up Dom. I've only had one bet accepted by Fred out of about a hundo. Doesn't matter though.

You backed Palace off the back of this thread, and I'm on MVG off the back of this thread. It definitely serves a purpose.

[ripple11]

Just noticed Boyles go 8/11 him over 100.5 average, he has a Tournament average of 102.68 and surely Barney will push him all the way.

Good spot ,ul, but thanks for the tip.

Not a great follower of darts....but really looking forward to the sweat with MVG in the World Championships next month

Lol & FML!

I bet THAT one of course......!

As I said this morning, in the DR, my timing was all wrong yesterday.

tbh given your day jobs I amazed how much you do get Fred on.......I'm watching most of the day and still miss alot

[tikay]

Yuh, keep sticking them up Dom. I've only had one bet accepted by Fred out of about a hundo. Doesn't matter though.

You backed Palace off the back of this thread, and I'm on MVG off the back of this thread. It definitely serves a purpose.

One out of 173 actually. That lost, too.

[Nico29]

Please don't misunderstand my reaction Tikay.

I apologise if my post sounded like I was throwing toys out of the pram for my bet being ignored, I didn't think it did-although I can understand how the end part might have sounded rather childish.

I was initially just trying to justify why I felt the bet was value.

Me saying I wouldn't post anymore tips was partly wanting to take the piss outa Chompy and also say that I doubted my views would be taken as value opinions and thus I wouldn't waste either sides time again with such waffle.

Of course you can place whatever bets you want.

*Reread my post again and yeah does sound toys and prams-I did not mean this at all when I wrote it-but I am sorry as it does read badly.

**Also thanks to Hector and Chompy for taking the time to reply on this.

[aaron1867]

I've been looking for a little bet for midweek to get back into action, so been looking at what Chompy posted.

Bournemouth v Stevenage.

Bournemouth at /FT (since start of winning/unbeaten run):

v Leyton Orient (H) - D 0-0/W 2-0
v Tranmere (H) - L 1-0/W 3-1
v Notts County (A) - L 2-0/D 3-3
v Carlisle (A) - W 2-1/W 4-2
v Dag & Red (H) - W 1-0/W 4-0 - FA Cup tie.
v Shrewsbury (H) - W 2-1/W 2-1
v Doncaster (A) - W 1-0/W 1-0
v Oldham (H) - D 0-0/W 4-1

Mixed results here.

Stevenage last few

Swindon (H) - L 3-0/L 4-0
Rotherham (A) - L 1-0/L 3-2
Yeovil (A) W 3-1 (can't find score)
v PNE (H) - L 2-1/L 4-1
v Sheffield United (a) - D 1-1/ L 4-1

Before these results, they had some really good results. These are bit inbetween as all the league games they have lost are against teams up there, but all have been trashings.

Not sure what I would go for here. Above shows they haven't been good against the teams around them lately & have gone in behind most games when they lost, also not that the 1-1 at against Sheffield United, they actually scored bang on half time. Stevenage long away games (I think) on the bounce & I think, I would probably be inclined to go with both the /FT at 15/8 & the 4/5. £75 on 4/5 & £25 on 15/8 for a bit of safety here.