Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Meanwhile, the next 48 hours will see assorted cricket people reading Mumbai pitches

First dispatches are coming through


Jonathan Agnew ‏@Aggerscricket

I'm told the test pitch was used for a 4 day match 3 weeks ago. Already worn


In which case the draw is pretty unlikely, and the toss is vital. Again.

[Bad Beat]

I am not convinced Long Run went backwards last season.  It was probably more a case of Kauto Star not having a good season in 2010/11 that lead to Long Run's achievements been overstated in that year.  Ignoring the previous year, and sticking to the best form of last season, it still looks like there could be as much as a stone between the two.  The Giant Bolster looks flattered on last season's Gold Cup form, as it seems very unlikely that was Long Run's running, and the rest of the field wasn't that strong.  I would be pretty surprised if he looks better than Long Run in a few months, though with no way of really measuring this, I'll stay away from a bet. 

The Giant Bolster also ran below form over hurdles on his only outing on heavy, though he has decent form on good to soft, he couldn't get past Time For Rupert on soft.



Cheers for posting Doobs (I'm a big fan of your posts here). You are right of course. There is an excellent chance that Long Run, (who is still a young horse), could come out this year and be more like the 2010 Long Run and less like the 2011 Long Run and that TGB could have had a flukey day in the Gold Cup. I actually think the former is pretty likely, but it's more than covered in the prices.

 I would also say that Long Run finishing 3rd in what may have been a bad Gold Cup was pretty disappointing given that Henderson was winning every other big race at the festival. Maybe it just isn't as good as we thought. I also wonder if it keeps chucking it down at Haydock, if it might not run. There seems to be very little money for it on Betfair.

 As for TGB. You are right. I'd have ideally liked to have seen some more heavy ground chase form, but we can't have absolutely everything. At the end of the day we are stealing money here - got to keep the bookie chaps happy by giving them some chance.

 (how many posts is that now and what is a reasonable mark-up in the one drop?)

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T. You will need to put this one on pre nap if you like it as it starts at 5pm.

Zenit St Petersburg v Malaga. This meets all the requirements for one of my favourite bets. The better side are away and have rested a couple of players and the home team have to win but are not very good at scoring goals. Home team will be ecstatic with 1-0 and away team even happier with 0-0. Malaga have had 2 nil-nil's in their last 6 matches so I do not see much action at all yet alone goals. I thought of a nitty under 2.5 goals but I am going to push the boat out and suggest :

Under 1.5 goals £20 @ 11/4 Boylesports.  I thought of an even further boat pusher outer of under .5 goals at 10's but will stick with a bit of nittiness.

[Skippy]

Does trainer form really exist, or is it just reading patterns where there are none? I've always felt that it was bit like having 100 guys toss a 10 coins, taking the 5 guys who have tossed 8 heads or more* and saying they are on hot head tossing form, and you should bet on them in the future to get heads.

I know an entire stable can catch a horse cold, but apart from that...

[rfgqqabc]

Afternoon Mr T. You will need to put this one on pre nap if you like it as it starts at 5pm.

Zenit St Petersburg v Malaga. This meets all the requirements for one of my favourite bets. The better side are away and have rested a couple of players and the home team have to win but are not very good at scoring goals. Home team will be ecstatic with 1-0 and away team even happier with 0-0. Malaga have had 2 nil-nil's in their last 6 matches so I do not see much action at all yet alone goals. I thought of a nitty under 2.5 goals but I am going to push the boat out and suggest :

Under 1.5 goals £20 @ 11/4 Boylesports.  I thought of an even further boat pusher outer of under .5 goals at 10's but will stick with a bit of nittiness.

11/1 0-0 correct score with a firm firms. Looks sweet and following you in

[redsimon]

Afternoon Mr T. You will need to put this one on pre nap if you like it as it starts at 5pm.

Zenit St Petersburg v Malaga. This meets all the requirements for one of my favourite bets. The better side are away and have rested a couple of players and the home team have to win but are not very good at scoring goals. Home team will be ecstatic with 1-0 and away team even happier with 0-0. Malaga have had 2 nil-nil's in their last 6 matches so I do not see much action at all yet alone goals. I thought of a nitty under 2.5 goals but I am going to push the boat out and suggest :

Under 1.5 goals £20 @ 11/4 Boylesports.  I thought of an even further boat pusher outer of under .5 goals at 10's but will stick with a bit of nittiness.

11/1 0-0 correct score with a firm firms. Looks sweet and following you in

If you fancy 11/1 0-0 go for No first goalscorer at same odds as you get a winner if its 1-0 from own goal as well as from 0-0?

[The Camel]

I quite like Washington. Here are a few random facts...

 Romo at home has 3 TDs and 10 INTs. I think the general feeling is that the new stadium is all corporate boxes and no atmosphere. If you add on to that the fact that this is America's team on Thanksgiving Day in front of a national TV audience then we can see how they have probably had a point or so added (to split the handle not the result).

 In the last three years the underdog has covered in 71% of Dallas games 30-12 ATS.

 Dallas have covered 2 of their last 13 home games.

 If anything this line will move to 3.

 Having said all that the money for Washington has been generally from the public. RGIII is very popular and he has just come off a big game.

 I have no thoughts on NE/NYJ as yet but I am interested to hear what people think about DL/HT as normally I would expect the syndicates to take Detroit, with Houston having to travel with a short week to prepare and with Detroit being that beautiful thing (a three point home dog). It seems the professionals are on Houston -3 though.

Hate the Washington bet.

Dallas are an improving side, especially so since Witten came back to full health.

Romo 0 INTs in the last 3 games. And if you leave out 2 games (where admittedly he had 9 INTs.. but was chasing the games)  he only has 4 INTs in 8 games.

Washington deep in the bottom third of rankings for total defense and total sacks.

I cannot have the Skins on my mind and if the line moves to 3 I'll be playing Dallas.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T. You will need to put this one on pre nap if you like it as it starts at 5pm.

Zenit St Petersburg v Malaga. This meets all the requirements for one of my favourite bets. The better side are away and have rested a couple of players and the home team have to win but are not very good at scoring goals. Home team will be ecstatic with 1-0 and away team even happier with 0-0. Malaga have had 2 nil-nil's in their last 6 matches so I do not see much action at all yet alone goals. I thought of a nitty under 2.5 goals but I am going to push the boat out and suggest :

Under 1.5 goals £20 @ 11/4 Boylesports.  I thought of an even further boat pusher outer of under .5 goals at 10's but will stick with a bit of nittiness.

Afternoon h.

I've not even done today's Reports yet, this game is at 5pm, & it's Tony No-Nap so far.....

I can't say I love that bet, though I'm glad you recommernded it, as it caused me to check the Market, & I noted that Under 2.5 is as much as 5/6 in places, & so I shall be having a bit of that for myself. I'm a bigger nit than you.

However, experience tells us that in hector we should always trust, so Fred has placed your bet with supreme confidence, though I missed a nadge of price I'm afraid. 

£20 @ 5/2, Boyles, UNDER 1.5 goals, St Zenit v Malaga, CL, 5pm today.

ON

Zenit St Petersburg v Malaga
Total Goals U/O 1.5 Under 1.5 5/2
Total stake £20.00
Estimated return £70.00

Full stake £20.00
Full Estimated return £70.00

[redarmi]

I quite like Washington. Here are a few random facts...

 Romo at home has 3 TDs and 10 INTs. I think the general feeling is that the new stadium is all corporate boxes and no atmosphere. If you add on to that the fact that this is America's team on Thanksgiving Day in front of a national TV audience then we can see how they have probably had a point or so added (to split the handle not the result).

 In the last three years the underdog has covered in 71% of Dallas games 30-12 ATS.

 Dallas have covered 2 of their last 13 home games.

 If anything this line will move to 3.

 Having said all that the money for Washington has been generally from the public. RGIII is very popular and he has just come off a big game.

 I have no thoughts on NE/NYJ as yet but I am interested to hear what people think about DL/HT as normally I would expect the syndicates to take Detroit, with Houston having to travel with a short week to prepare and with Detroit being that beautiful thing (a three point home dog). It seems the professionals are on Houston -3 though.

Hate the Washington bet.

Dallas are an improving side, especially so since Witten came back to full health.

Romo 0 INTs in the last 3 games. And if you leave out 2 games (where admittedly he had 9 INTs.. but was chasing the games)  he only has 4 INTs in 8 games.

Washington deep in the bottom third of rankings for total defense and total sacks.

I cannot have the Skins on my mind and if the line moves to 3 I'll be playing Dallas.

Line on the Washington game is already 3 albeit Dallas a small fave.  I almost never get Dallas right and can happily leave it alone although I probably prefer the Redskins marginally.  In the other two games I would be surprised if I didn't bet the dogs but I think we will get 7 at some point on NYJ (Its already there -115 at Cris and Grande).  Similarly Detroit think we will get +3.5 with no worries.  Haven't seen any sharp action on Houston here fwiw.

[The Camel]

I quite like Washington. Here are a few random facts...

 Romo at home has 3 TDs and 10 INTs. I think the general feeling is that the new stadium is all corporate boxes and no atmosphere. If you add on to that the fact that this is America's team on Thanksgiving Day in front of a national TV audience then we can see how they have probably had a point or so added (to split the handle not the result).

 In the last three years the underdog has covered in 71% of Dallas games 30-12 ATS.

 Dallas have covered 2 of their last 13 home games.

 If anything this line will move to 3.

 Having said all that the money for Washington has been generally from the public. RGIII is very popular and he has just come off a big game.

 I have no thoughts on NE/NYJ as yet but I am interested to hear what people think about DL/HT as normally I would expect the syndicates to take Detroit, with Houston having to travel with a short week to prepare and with Detroit being that beautiful thing (a three point home dog). It seems the professionals are on Houston -3 though.

Hate the Washington bet.

Dallas are an improving side, especially so since Witten came back to full health.

Romo 0 INTs in the last 3 games. And if you leave out 2 games (where admittedly he had 9 INTs.. but was chasing the games)  he only has 4 INTs in 8 games.

Washington deep in the bottom third of rankings for total defense and total sacks.

I cannot have the Skins on my mind and if the line moves to 3 I'll be playing Dallas.

Line on the Washington game is already 3 albeit Dallas a small fave.  I almost never get Dallas right and can happily leave it alone although I probably prefer the Redskins marginally.  In the other two games I would be surprised if I didn't bet the dogs but I think we will get 7 at some point on NYJ (Its already there -115 at Cris and Grande).  Similarly Detroit think we will get +3.5 with no worries.  Haven't seen any sharp action on Houston here fwiw.

Detroit my main Thanksgiving fancy fwiw.

[redarmi]

One thing anyone that is serious about betting US sports should do is open a Sports Interaction account.  It won't last too long (although not bad by UK standards) but they are almost always the best price about the dog and under and sometimes markedly so.  They are +4 Detroit at the moment when Pinnacle are +3 2.09 which is a very big difference.

[class]

Uncle Fred in the 4.30 @ Kempton, currently 7/1. 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1700, Wednesday November 21st

PROFIT on Month = £797.00


Unsettled Bets  - £888.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[tikay]

Only one goal so far in the Zenit - Malaga thing, though the game only started 7 minutes ago.

Only 83 minutes to hold on now.

[redsimon]

sick bok tony