Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

Uncle Fred in the 4.30 @ Kempton, currently 7/1. 

I got the same tip & it was never in the race & got on at 10's.

[tikay]

Whoops.

Well we were ok for the first 8 minutes.

Tonight will be mainly cake-less in the Hector household.

I am on under 2.5, and bristling with confidenceness.

[redsimon]

Whoops.

Well we were ok for the first 8 minutes.

Tonight will be mainly cake-less in the Hector household.

I am on under 2.5, and bristling with confidenceness.

Sweved the 1.5 under then? Good luck holding

[Tal]

I bet a horse at 4-1 today. It went off at 11/4, led 2 out and was beaten over the last 75 yards by a 125-1 shot.

Is this the racing equivalent of a one-outer? Variance schmariance.

[tikay]

Podolski. Sweet.

[Tal]

Podolski. Sweet.

Is Fred on the result or is this a personal sleight?

[tikay]

Podolski. Sweet.

Is Fred on the result or is this a personal sleight?

Neither!

Just one of those really beautiful goals you can but admire.

I do have a number of wagers on the game, but none on the result, or on the goal markets.

[Tal]

Podolski. Sweet.

Is Fred on the result or is this a personal sleight?

Neither!

Just one of those really beautiful goals you can but admire.

I do have a number of wagers on the game, but none on the result, or on the goal markets.

Carry on then.

[Tonji]

F1 Brazil Championship decider this weekend.

Vettel is 13 points clear of Alonso. Various permutations are of course possible, but essentially he just has to drive a tactical & defensive race.

Now I noticed Vettel is naturally favourite in the fastest lap market (6 this season). Surely a case can be made to find some value here.

Button, Raikkonen & Rosberg each have 2 fastest laps.

In the last race Vettel held the fastest lap, Raikkonen next about 1/10th down.

I’ve not been following F1 so closely this year, so thoughts from tighty & other F1 geeks, if this can be exploited?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/brazilian-grand-prix/fastest-lap

[Tal]

I don't post much about F1 not least because I've seen Fred doesn't have what you'd call an affinity for it. However, I might be able to address some of the points you've made, Tonji.

Interlagos is a Red Bull track. There are lots of fast corners (modern tracks have more winding setups) and only 2 corners requiring second gear or less. The alternator problem Red Bull has had of late won't be there this weekend as 1. They've changed to the new Renault alternator that has been working on other cars and 2. The alternator fault has only shown itself up on slow corners.

Raikonnen has the prospect of finishing every lap this season and has never failed to finish at Interlagos. He has won the race before, albeit in a very different car. He and Grosjean have found some pace over the last couple of races and maybe Kimi at 20/1 for fastest lap (compared to a stingy 25/1 for Grosjean) is a bit juicy.

I can't bet on McLaren the way the car is performing ATM. It had so much speed last year and Button took the fastest lap, but the team hasn't performed from top to bottom this season and - call me old fashioned - I like betting on things I have a bit of faith in. The only thing in Lewis's favour is it is suspected that it might rain.

The Brazil maestro has been Massa, who has won there 3 times as the homeboy. Ferrari's car just isn't very quick, tho, despite Alonso driving the heck out of it.

I'm no TightEnd so I'll leave the F1 preview stuff to him.

My biggest concern in all of this (and yes, I fully recognise I have a habit of putting up bets purely because I think they'll win rather than the price is wrong) is that the market has all the info and more so the odds we are looking at don't offer value. I'm sure someone will put me straight on that.

Red Bull - particularly Vettel - don't need toget every drop out of the car; a low risk strategy and a 4th place finish will do fine. Is a fastest lap bet on Vettel at 2-1 for what will be the last few laps attractive? Not by a long chalk in my view.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0900, Thursday November 22nd

PROFIT on Month = £777.00

Unsettled Bets  - £888.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[Tonji]

I don't post much about F1 not least because I've seen Fred doesn't have what you'd call an affinity for it. However, I might be able to address some of the points you've made, Tonji.

Interlagos is a Red Bull track. There are lots of fast corners (modern tracks have more winding setups) and only 2 corners requiring second gear or less. The alternator problem Red Bull has had of late won't be there this weekend as 1. They've changed to the new Renault alternator that has been working on other cars and 2. The alternator fault has only shown itself up on slow corners.

Raikonnen has the prospect of finishing every lap this season and has never failed to finish at Interlagos. He has won the race before, albeit in a very different car. He and Grosjean have found some pace over the last couple of races and maybe Kimi at 20/1 for fastest lap (compared to a stingy 25/1 for Grosjean) is a bit juicy.

I can't bet on McLaren the way the car is performing ATM. It had so much speed last year and Button took the fastest lap, but the team hasn't performed from top to bottom this season and - call me old fashioned - I like betting on things I have a bit of faith in. The only thing in Lewis's favour is it is suspected that it might rain.

The Brazil maestro has been Massa, who has won there 3 times as the homeboy. Ferrari's car just isn't very quick, tho, despite Alonso driving the heck out of it.

I'm no TightEnd so I'll leave the F1 preview stuff to him.

My biggest concern in all of this (and yes, I fully recognise I have a habit of putting up bets purely because I think they'll win rather than the price is wrong) is that the market has all the info and more so the odds we are looking at don't offer value. I'm sure someone will put me straight on that.

Red Bull - particularly Vettel - don't need toget every drop out of the car; a low risk strategy and a 4th place finish will do fine. Is a fastest lap bet on Vettel at 2-1 for what will be the last few laps attractive? Not by a long chalk in my view.

Thanks Tal,

I think there is more than a whiff of value to be had, but don't have the time to dig deeper into it.

I think we need tighty's insight.

[kpnuts]

Tidal Bay & Midnight Chase scratched from the Betfair, so just 6 max going to post. Nice.

[TightEnd]

I don't post much about F1 not least because I've seen Fred doesn't have what you'd call an affinity for it. However, I might be able to address some of the points you've made, Tonji.

Interlagos is a Red Bull track. There are lots of fast corners (modern tracks have more winding setups) and only 2 corners requiring second gear or less. The alternator problem Red Bull has had of late won't be there this weekend as 1. They've changed to the new Renault alternator that has been working on other cars and 2. The alternator fault has only shown itself up on slow corners.

Raikonnen has the prospect of finishing every lap this season and has never failed to finish at Interlagos. He has won the race before, albeit in a very different car. He and Grosjean have found some pace over the last couple of races and maybe Kimi at 20/1 for fastest lap (compared to a stingy 25/1 for Grosjean) is a bit juicy.

I can't bet on McLaren the way the car is performing ATM. It had so much speed last year and Button took the fastest lap, but the team hasn't performed from top to bottom this season and - call me old fashioned - I like betting on things I have a bit of faith in. The only thing in Lewis's favour is it is suspected that it might rain.

The Brazil maestro has been Massa, who has won there 3 times as the homeboy. Ferrari's car just isn't very quick, tho, despite Alonso driving the heck out of it.

I'm no TightEnd so I'll leave the F1 preview stuff to him.

My biggest concern in all of this (and yes, I fully recognise I have a habit of putting up bets purely because I think they'll win rather than the price is wrong) is that the market has all the info and more so the odds we are looking at don't offer value. I'm sure someone will put me straight on that.

Red Bull - particularly Vettel - don't need toget every drop out of the car; a low risk strategy and a 4th place finish will do fine. Is a fastest lap bet on Vettel at 2-1 for what will be the last few laps attractive? Not by a long chalk in my view.

Thanks Tal,

I think there is more than a whiff of value to be had, but don't have the time to dig deeper into it.

I think we need tighty's insight.

FWIW

I think the fastest lap market is a complete bookies benefit

In 19 races so far this season 9 drivers have set fastest laps. These include Kobayashi, Grosjean, Perez, Rosberg, Senna as well as drivers from the top three teams

the data for that is half way down this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Formula_One_season

Vettel set the fastest lap the last two races, yes

However the calculation for the punter here often comes down to completely unpredictable variables

eg who has the newest tyres on at the end, when the cars are lightest

eg differences in fuel use

and for Brazil this weekend we have the weather, and the strong possibility of a wet-dry race

In wet-dry races this year fastest laps have been set by Rosberg, Kobayashi and Senna. Predict that!

Would leave well alone. The minor success we have had in F1 has come post qualifying and trying to spot value in cars that have qualified out of position and can make up places. In changeable weather that can be a lottery too

[Tonji]

Cheers tighty.

Too many variables. I may still have an end of season banzai bet