Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

^^^^

If I recall correctly, it was barely a sweat, he obliged within the first 15 minutes or thereabouts!

It was something like that, yes.

Even a blind pig finds a truffle every now and then 

[The Camel]

Agree re:Kaepernick he has been absolutely incredible.  After the first half the other week when he first started I recommended on here we bet SF in the second half and it was one of my bigger bets of the year.  The only thing that would worry me slightly is whether he does definitely get the start for the rest of the season.  Obviously he should but Harbaugh hasn't confirmed that to be the case which makes me wonder whether Smith had a niggle last week and will apparently make a choice midweek.  It would be almost unprecendented for an NFL coach to bench a starter that has played fairly well whilst in contention and if it goes wrong he will be slated.  I don't think it is an issue with regards to the bet because, as Keith says, 5/1 is probably right with Smith starting but it wouldn't be a great bet then.

This is true unfortunately.

I think 5's is a smidgeon of value even with Smith at QB

But I would still be very surprised if he deserted Kaepernick now.

And what price do you think they should be for Superbowl with Kaepernick?

3/1 maximum.

If I was making a book they'd be 9/4 shots to make sure they were onside.

I realise I am setting myself up for a fall if they don't win it all.

I just feel it is one of those very rare occasions that the whole market is wrong. His talent level is completely underestimated.

He went 16 for 25 with a td and an INT against the Saints, but that completely misrepresents his performance imo.

I counted 5 drops amongst his incompletions. And the interception was purely down to a botched snap. (He didn't have time to fully recognise the defense and got picked off my a db who wasn't where he expected. He should have thrown an incompletion probably. But hell, it was his second start. I excuse him one mistake!)

[Killerkilsby]

I watch alot of sport.

I watch more sport than anyone know.

It's almost sad how much sport I watch.

But just once in while I see something which makes it all worthwhile.

I see a talented young player who just is a joy to watch, who I just know it is going to be a superstar at his chosen sport. Someone who makes you stop whatever your doing and marvel at his natural talent, joie de vivre and brilliance.

Without thinking too hard I remember Federer beating Sampras at Wimbledon, Judd Trump's first world Snooker campaign and Rory winning the Dubai Desert Classic.

Not only have you got watch these people, you have to move fast and get financially involved by backing them!

Well, a new star is about to appear in the firmament imo.

San Francisco 49ers are an excellent NFL team.

They have an awesome defence led by the fearsome Smith brothers Aldon and Justin. And the Duracell bunny at LB, Patrick Willis.

Troy Aikman called their Offensive line the best he had seen since the legendary one he played behind in the nineties.

They have a dependable running back in Frank Gore.

Weapon's aplenty at WR and TE.. Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

And at QB they have Alex Smith who is top in the league completion %, fourth in QB rating with an incredibly impressive TD to INT ratio of 14:5

Only thing is, he got a concussion a couple of weeks ago and had to be taken out of the lineup by a guy who had only seen spot duty so far.

This guy: Colin Kaepernick







I have watched NFL avidly for nearly 30 years.

And I can honestly say I have never have been so excited by a young player as Kaepernick.

His arm strength is amazing, his throws are like they on a frozen rope.

He has the mobility of Michael Vick and Cam Newton.

His temperament after performing the way h did after a very traumatic week in a very hostile atmosphere on Sunday sealed the deal.

This guy is destined to be an absolute superstar.

Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, for him to bench Alex Smith in favour of this guy tells you all you need to know.

I think San Francisco are the best team in the NFC with Smith at QB. And 5/1 for the Superbowl is about the right price.

With Kaepernick at QB, it's an absolute steal. Best bet I've seen in years.

Recommend £150 on San Fransisco to win the Superbowl at 5/1.

You make a terrific case, Keith, then follow it with "Bet of the Year, believe me".

Irrestible. Earlier this year we had serial fun with Barnet. The 49-ers are the new Barnet, as of now.

We have that rarest of beasts, a MAX, & a few months of fun to follow.

Let the fun commence. I am officially a 49ers fan as of now.

£150 @ 6.8, Betfair, 49ers to win Superbowl


ON


San Francisco 49ersSuper Bowl Winner    6.8 £150.00 £870.00
Bet Ref: 23670733923M Bet matched: 2012-11-27T16:27:01.000Z
 

How long will money be tied up for?

[tikay]

^^^                   ^^^                        ^^^

Until February 3rd.

[tikay]

For those who were not with us from the start of Fred, in February of this year, amongst our first handful of bets were.....

Superbowl - Will Madonna sing using a headset? (Winner)

Superbowl - Which Team will be first to receive? (Winner)

The latter was, in the face of it, a coin flip, it amounted to "which team will kick off?" And we only had 17/20 on what SEEMED like a simple toss of the coin. In fact, it was the greatest, mostest, certainty that Fred has ever wagered.

It perfectly epitomised what Fred was intended to try & do - exploit information which the Bookies had missed.

[The Camel]

For those who were not with us from the start of Fred, in February of this year, amongst our first handful of bets were.....

Superbowl - Will Madonna sing using a headset? (Winner)

Superbowl - Which Team will be first to receive? (Winner)

The latter was, in the face of it, a coin flip, it amounted to "which team will kick off?" And we only had 17/20 on what SEEMED like a simple toss of the coin. In fact, it was the greatest, mostest, certainty that Fred has ever wagered.

It perfectly epitomised what Fred was intended to try & do - exploit information which the Bookies had missed.

Meh.

I think Michel Hazanavicus was a pretty good bet too!

[tikay]

There have been over 15 pages in the last 48 hours on the thread

I thought I would summarise the outstanding football recommendations for the full programme in the top two leagues tomorrow night for tikay

Fun4Fraser

£100 Spurs to beat Liverpool 4/5 Daw No bet

LeedsRhodesy

Arsenal 10/11 - 1 goal v Bradford

Anthonyl

£5 - Hammond to score first Brighton @ home to bristol city (should be 17/1 on ladbrokes)

£5 - Brighton 5-0 67/1 Betfred.

Rick BFA

Watford to win at Sheff Wed 21/10

Ant040489

Watford to win at Sheff Wed 3.12


Matt NFFC

Forest to win at Ipswich 7/5


Should save you some time searching through

BUMPED to remind - any more views?

Only the following are this evening........

Sheff Wed - Watford

Ipswich - Forest

Brighton - Bristol City

[tikay]

For those who were not with us from the start of Fred, in February of this year, amongst our first handful of bets were.....

Superbowl - Will Madonna sing using a headset? (Winner)

Superbowl - Which Team will be first to receive? (Winner)

The latter was, in the face of it, a coin flip, it amounted to "which team will kick off?" And we only had 17/20 on what SEEMED like a simple toss of the coin. In fact, it was the greatest, mostest, certainty that Fred has ever wagered.

It perfectly epitomised what Fred was intended to try & do - exploit information which the Bookies had missed.

Meh.

I think Michel Hazanavicus was a pretty good bet too!

Ha!

I was simply remembering the previous Superbowl, given that we lumped on it today.

Our first EVER bet was "Best Director" in the Oscars. (Art, ffs!).

We got on at about 4/6, & by the time the Oscars came round, it was about 1/5. It won, obv.

Our THIRD ever bet was on Celeb BB, & was proposed by Chompy.......guess how that went?

[The Camel]

There have been over 15 pages in the last 48 hours on the thread

I thought I would summarise the outstanding football recommendations for the full programme in the top two leagues tomorrow night for tikay

Fun4Fraser

£100 Spurs to beat Liverpool 4/5 Daw No bet

LeedsRhodesy

Arsenal 10/11 - 1 goal v Bradford

Anthonyl

£5 - Hammond to score first Brighton @ home to bristol city (should be 17/1 on ladbrokes)

£5 - Brighton 5-0 67/1 Betfred.

Rick BFA

Watford to win at Sheff Wed 21/10

Ant040489

Watford to win at Sheff Wed 3.12


Matt NFFC

Forest to win at Ipswich 7/5


Should save you some time searching through

BUMPED to remind - any more views?

Only the following are this evening........

Sheff Wed - Watford

Ipswich - Forest

Brighton - Bristol City

I like Brighton tonight.

Throwing away a fiver on 4-0 and 5-0 appeals as a decent dutch bet.

[tikay]

Prices for the Championship games (mentioned above) are.......


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship


Not convinced many are far wrong, though personally, Watford looks the pick.

I can't bet any of them unless someone can convince us as to value.

I know nothing

[tikay]

Keith - just the two correct scores, or the result as well?

[tikay]

Brighton v Bristol City Correct Score market.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-bristol-city/correct-score

[Chompy]

For those who were not with us from the start of Fred, in February of this year, amongst our first handful of bets were.....

Superbowl - Will Madonna sing using a headset? (Winner)

Superbowl - Which Team will be first to receive? (Winner)

The latter was, in the face of it, a coin flip, it amounted to "which team will kick off?" And we only had 17/20 on what SEEMED like a simple toss of the coin. In fact, it was the greatest, mostest, certainty that Fred has ever wagered.

It perfectly epitomised what Fred was intended to try & do - exploit information which the Bookies had missed.

Meh.

I think Michel Hazanavicus was a pretty good bet too!

Ha!

I was simply remembering the previous Superbowl, given that we lumped on it today.

Our first EVER bet was "Best Director" in the Oscars. (Art, ffs!).

We got on at about 4/6, & by the time the Oscars came round, it was about 1/5. It won, obv.

Our THIRD ever bet was on Celeb BB, & was proposed by Chompy.......guess how that went?

Julian Clary @ 4/1? Booooooom!

Keith, what price you think San Fran will be if they win their remaining games, all with Coelin at the helm, and land the no.1 seed?

[The Camel]

Keith - just the two correct scores, or the result as well?

I've played on the spreads.

I like them outright, but there isn't much meat on the 8/13 bone.

I think maybe £5 on 4-0, £3 on 5-0 and £2 on 6-0 at best prices is nice bet.

[The Camel]

For those who were not with us from the start of Fred, in February of this year, amongst our first handful of bets were.....

Superbowl - Will Madonna sing using a headset? (Winner)

Superbowl - Which Team will be first to receive? (Winner)

The latter was, in the face of it, a coin flip, it amounted to "which team will kick off?" And we only had 17/20 on what SEEMED like a simple toss of the coin. In fact, it was the greatest, mostest, certainty that Fred has ever wagered.

It perfectly epitomised what Fred was intended to try & do - exploit information which the Bookies had missed.

Meh.

I think Michel Hazanavicus was a pretty good bet too!

Ha!

I was simply remembering the previous Superbowl, given that we lumped on it today.

Our first EVER bet was "Best Director" in the Oscars. (Art, ffs!).

We got on at about 4/6, & by the time the Oscars came round, it was about 1/5. It won, obv.

Our THIRD ever bet was on Celeb BB, & was proposed by Chompy.......guess how that went?

Julian Clary @ 4/1? Booooooom!

Keith, what price you think San Fran will be if they win their remaining games, all with Coelin at the helm, and land the no.1 seed?

They do have to go to New England, but should b a td+ favourite is their other 4 games.

Atlanta have a much tougher run in, but assuming San Fran lose at Gillette Field, the Falcons have to go 2-3 not to have home field advantage.

If SF win their last 5 and get home field, I think they'll be 3/1. Obviously depnds how impressive they are. Could be a bandwagon effect and be 9/4.

Think they could go 3-2 and still get a first round bye.

Still incredibly unlikely they will be a bigger price in the playoffs than they are now.

So it's a great trade as well as a great punt imo.