Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Gomez £40ew first gscorer in Munich game @11/4 bet365. Each way we are taking 1.91 about a 1.7 shot and win bet is neutral ev. Decent bet

Missed it, sorry, they withdrew the market before I could get on. I get restricted on Bet365 anyway, but I also tried Betvictor.

[TheDazzler]

I think Doobs lay of Arsenal is a decent bet but I would point out that West Brom are on a two game losing run, not one game.
They lost 3-1 at Swansea, which wasn't too bad but then lost 1-0 in their last game, at home to Stoke, which wasn't good. If West Brom had won that Stoke game, as was expected, they'd be 3rd in the table and I don't think Arsenal would be quite as short as they are.

An interesting game tonight in that Chelsea group.
Shaktar at home to Juve. A draw suits both teams as they both qualify and put Chelsea out. Juve have drawn their last 5 away games in Europe. But it was priced up 11/10 for a draw, which you don't see too often. 14 mins in now and still 0-0 and I reckon it's probably still small value. It's not a tip for Fred, just an interesting situation.

[Tal]

London Chess Classic.

Tal,

These are the odds for tomorrow's match ups.

Anything take your eye?


http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Chess-c210000170

In the Adams - Carlsen game, Carlsen is 7/4. With the draw @ 13/20, presumably the thinking is that he does not need to risk going for the win?

PS - Who do you think sets the Ladbrokes Chess Odds, or advises tham as to likely outcomes? I think it is safe to assume that nobody at Ladbrokes would have the knowledge.

I will do some analysis of the openings and so on (have a few ideas of how that game will go but will do some work on it and report back). Adams is playing really well this week and can't be discounted. He was 4th in the world for some time (think Tim Henman ) and is showing signs of being back to his best.

As for the odds setter, he or she seems in fairness to know what they are doing although as we have established they are taking a whopping share of the equity, thereby maximising room for error.

I worry that we might lose all our potential profit (which now stands at £10, having spent £15 on match bets with a £30 @5/6 on Magnus Carlsen to win overall). Of course, if we find a wrong price we should bet it anyway. Would just like us to finish in the green

[tikay]

Amazing stuff at Stamford Bridge.

Both teams got penalties for handball within a few minutes of each other. Both were missed.

[tikay]

Third penalty given now! Three inside 15 minutes. This one was converted.

[TL900]

Reckon theres some value in Benfica to win at 3/1 with StanJames. Barca really don't look bothered at all.

[tikay]

Gomez £40ew first gscorer in Munich game @11/4 bet365. Each way we are taking 1.91 about a 1.7 shot and win bet is neutral ev. Decent bet

Munich won 4-1. First Goalscorer? You guessed it.

Good shout Dave, but I just could not get on in time, & not for want of trying.

[MahoganyVic]

Messi looks like could have a bad injury. Betis are 11/1 at weekend with VC and Corals at the moment

[Tal]

Adams v Carlsen – how do they match up?

Head to Head

Carlsen has never beaten Adams with Black. However, they haven’t played many games over the years – Adams beat him in 2010 (when Carlsen’s rating was still higher than everyone else’s, I hasten to add) and they have had a few draws.

Carlsen has beaten Adams in both of the last two London Classics, but with White in both games.

Style

Adams plays solidly and looks to build an attack through quiet manouvre, rather than flamboyant aggression. He favours surgical precision over physical threat.

Carlsen has more vitality in his positional play and is a better endgame player.

Neither is known to panic at the board.

Form

Tough to separate, in fairness. Carlsen has played some astonishing chess but got into trouble against Kramnik after an uncharacteristic error.

Adams hasn’t really put a foot wrong, albeit against weaker opponents.

Opening

Adams will almost certainly open with 1.e4 and Carlsen has in the past tried unusual openings to take Adams out of the conventional theory in lines he is particularly strong in (Sicilian Rossilimo Variation being one), but this has often led to his downfall against the Cornishman and, given the importance of the game and Carlsen’s own form, I expect him to play something more familiar. This suits Adams. Both players like the Ruy Lopez (Carlsen has brought back the Breyer Variation into popularity and as I found to my cost in a game last year, you have to be Carlsen to play it!)

Overall

I have difficulty arguing that any of the prices are obviously wrong. Perhaps Carlsen at 7/4 with Black is stingy, as I can see the game likely being less dramatic early on, which tends to lean the game towards a draw, as it suits Adams’s game as well.

No bet in this game for me.

[MahoganyVic]

Higgins just made a 147!

[Jamier-Host]

Higgins just made a 147!

Oi oi 

[Tal]

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Chess-c210000170

I would argue that Nakamura to beat Polgar at 17/10 is a better price than Carlsen at 9/4. Nakamura has found a knack for beating weaker players in the last few months and I can see him seizing the opportunity to pounce on a wounded and out of form Judit Polgar.

There is only one game between them that I can find (Polgar doesn’t play much on the circuit) and that was two years ago. It was a grueling 113 move win by Nakamura but the game was in the balance for some time. Nakamura is showing confidence and his game against Adams the other day was interesting, as it was a drawn endgame but the American pressed and prodded and poked and pressed again to see if he could eke out a win. He can win tomorrow and get himself back in the hunt. If he doesn’t win, I would say his chances of winning the tournament are gone, short of something spectacular. The more I look at it, the more I am surprised that Polgar is as short as 4/1. She has not shown much in this tournament to suggest she is that likely to win. Adams being 1.5 times less likely to win his game, when he is playing well doesn’t add up to me.

McShane is playing aggressively and with huge heart and imagination, but he has been found out by making slight errors (often when short of time). He is a ginormous 14/1 to beat Kramnik and although I’m not convinced his price is really that long, I wouldn’t recommend it to Fred. I can see a long game here and last year I remember this having a thrilling dénouement, where McShane refused a draw to try for a win, only to push too far and to be beaten by breathtaking technique by Kramnik. I would say Kramnik is playing better now than he was last year and McShane isn’t playing as well. 

Jones v Anand looks, smells and will likely be a draw. Anand is Black, hasn’t won a single game in classical time controls in 17 attempts and yet is 2/1 to beat a player who is playing fearless – if not entirely sound – chess and who is growing in confidence. Can’t be right, that. 4/7 the draw probably is, though. 4/6 and I would be recommending it. 

Conclusion is probably – being nitty – no bets. If I were forced to pick anything, it would be Nakamura to win.

[tikay]

Good luck tonight to Hector with his bet on the England quickies against India. Anderson has 3 wickets (India are 7 down) with nearest pursuer Monty currently on two.

Somehow we failed to get on the 11/2 shot, but hopefully plenty of others did.

Dubai gave us a lovely 11/4 winner tonight, too. Yup, missed that as well.

[tikay]

Thanks for those fascinating chess previews Tal. Looks like no bet, we don't need to force it, but thanks anyway.

[Doobs]

I think Doobs lay of Arsenal is a decent bet but I would point out that West Brom are on a two game losing run, not one game.
They lost 3-1 at Swansea, which wasn't too bad but then lost 1-0 in their last game, at home to Stoke, which wasn't good. If West Brom had won that Stoke game, as was expected, they'd be 3rd in the table and I don't think Arsenal would be quite as short as they are.

An interesting game tonight in that Chelsea group.
Shaktar at home to Juve. A draw suits both teams as they both qualify and put Chelsea out. Juve have drawn their last 5 away games in Europe. But it was priced up 11/10 for a draw, which you don't see too often. 14 mins in now and still 0-0 and I reckon it's probably still small value. It's not a tip for Fred, just an interesting situation.

I wrote a post saying they were on a two game losing run, but made the mistake of checking..... badly obviously