Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Would like to recommend a Horse bet.

IronSpine Charity Gold Cup on Saturday.

Not the obvious choice but one I hope that come start time on Saturday will provide some value.

Astracad currently available at 12s generally. Has plenty of solid course form and seems to be primed for this meeting.

Last year he was aimed at the Jenny Mould Memorial race earlier on in the day. This is name after the wife of the current owner. Astracad used to run in her name when she was alive, so they will be keen to mark the day again.

In terms of form last race was at Chelts and finished 4th in a hot race, looking a bit one paced over 2miles, but it was first race of the current season, so should improve, the extra distance to my eye should benefit too.

Couple this with the flying form of the Twister stable atm, and the fact that Pricewise(i think) recommended it for the other race last year and may think on same lines, the price may well collapse come Saturday.

Recommend £10 ew at current odds

[tikay]

Would like to recommend a Horse bet.

IronSpine Charity Gold Cup on Saturday.

Not the obvious choice but one I hope that come start time on Saturday will provide some value.

Astracad currently available at 12s generally. Has plenty of solid course form and seems to be primed for this meeting.

Last year he was aimed at the Jenny Mould Memorial race earlier on in the day. This is name after the wife of the current owner. Astracad used to run in her name when she was alive, so they will be keen to mark the day again.

In terms of form last race was at Chelts and finished 4th in a hot race, looking a bit one paced over 2miles, but it was first race of the current season, so should improve, the extra distance to my eye should benefit too.

Couple this with the flying form of the Twister stable atm, and the fact that Pricewise(i think) recommended it for the other race last year and may think on same lines, the price may well collapse come Saturday.

Recommend £10 ew at current odds

Thanks Adz.

For £20 @ 12/1, why not?

Incidentally, I tried to place the bet on Blue Square, (£10 EW) & they restricted me to £8 EW!

So, we have £10 EW with Betfred, @ 12/1 (qtr odds, 1,2,3,4), ASTRACAD, Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Gup this Saturday.

ON

Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup
Antepost Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4 Astracad 12/1 
Total stake £ 20.00
Estimated return £ 170.00

Full stake £ 20.00
Full estimated return £ 170.00

[Doobs]

Ha, great stuff Rich.

Nope, hard to see how or why India are the jolly here.

Before further idle speculation ensues, how much difference will winning the toss make?

Will winning the toss change the likely outcome by, say, 10? or 20%?

If India won the toss, they should almost be favourites, yes?

If England win the toss, England should be 1/2?

Its' trappy

Will the cracks get bigger with two days of sun on it before Thursday?


As it stands I'd have England 4/6 if they win the toss and bat.

India you just don't know.

There must be a maths equation here then, because we could get 2/1 England when, if they win a (literal) 50%- 50% coin flip, they will be 4/6?

They can't be 4/6 or 1/2 if they win the toss.  You have to factor in the chance of a draw. 

As it is I think they will drift to nearer 3/1 if they lose the toss again and a bit shorter than 2/1 if they win, so we should take the 3.45 available on Betfair now.

[TightEnd]

Have been following reports from Nagpur all day

It looks very flat, according to all who have commented

[Tal]

Have been following reports from Nagpur all day

It looks very flat, according to all who have commented

Does this suggest India are frightenened of losing?

[TightEnd]

Have been following reports from Nagpur all day

It looks very flat, according to all who have commented

Does this suggest India are frightenened of losing?

It suggests the Nagpur crciket association wants it to last five days to help pay for the stadium

Indian cricket politics, BCCI, Dhoni wants a turner, local committees don't. Unfathomable, and part of the problem with the non IPL game over there

[tikay]

Ha, great stuff Rich.

Nope, hard to see how or why India are the jolly here.

Before further idle speculation ensues, how much difference will winning the toss make?

Will winning the toss change the likely outcome by, say, 10? or 20%?

If India won the toss, they should almost be favourites, yes?

If England win the toss, England should be 1/2?

Its' trappy

Will the cracks get bigger with two days of sun on it before Thursday?


As it stands I'd have England 4/6 if they win the toss and bat.

India you just don't know.

There must be a maths equation here then, because we could get 2/1 England when, if they win a (literal) 50%- 50% coin flip, they will be 4/6?

They can't be 4/6 or 1/2 if they win the toss.  You have to factor in the chance of a draw. 

As it is I think they will drift to nearer 3/1 if they lose the toss again and a bit shorter than 2/1 if they win, so we should take the 3.45 available on Betfair now.

Thanks Doobsy.

Are you suggesting we should do that, or just saying that would be the best route IF we wanted to get with England?

It does look a tempting price.

[Doobs]

India look too short.  So we either lay India, back the draw or back England to win.  For comparison, India's price now is shorter than the one I backed them to win the first test.  If you remember back then, that was on a wicket that was expected to favour them and there was serious doubts about the England player's ability against spin.

I have backed the England win, but the other options are ok too.  Whatever we do, I think we should oppose India at these odds.

[TightEnd]

I agree

I think lay India, due to possibility - a good one, if these pitch reports and pictures are accurate - of a draw, which is more likely than an Eng win should India win the toss and actually bat well

[tikay]

Well we can back England at 3.5, or lay India @ 2.5.

I guess the lay is better?

[TightEnd]

Well we can back England at 3.5, or lay India @ 2.5.

I guess the lay is better?

I think so, as you get the draw

Happy to defer to stronger opinions

[horseplayer]

i am hoping either side is 260-2 at end of day one so i can green out

[Doobs]

Well we can back England at 3.5, or lay India @ 2.5.

I guess the lay is better?

I think so, as you get the draw

Happy to defer to stronger opinions

Agreed.   Laying India is probably correct.  I very nearly did this and it is the nittier option.

[tikay]

Well we can back England at 3.5, or lay India @ 2.5.

I guess the lay is better?

I think so, as you get the draw

Happy to defer to stronger opinions

Agreed.   Laying India is probably correct.  I very nearly did this and it is the nittier option.

Then that is what we shall do, although I am unable to so so until later today, as Betfair does not work for me on this particular computer or browser.

[FUN4FRASER]

Well we can back England at 3.5, or lay India @ 2.5.

I guess the lay is better?

I think so, as you get the draw

Happy to defer to stronger opinions

Agreed.   Laying India is probably correct.  I very nearly did this and it is the nittier option.

Then that is what we shall do, although I am unable to so so until later today, as Betfair does not work for me on this particular computer or browser.

Another angle maybe is betting England to win with draw no bet @ 11-10 ? ..............just a thought

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/test-series/india-v-england-%5b4th-test%5d/draw-no-bet

2.22 on betfair but not much liquidity