Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Pietersen in the Nagpur post play press conference

"this is the hardest pitch I have ever played on in Test Cricket"

He took 188 balls to score 73 today...his slowest strike rate in test cricket in any innings over 20.....

[sovietsong]

However - given the motivation of 'teaching Sunderland fans a lesson' Stan James 5/6 on Rooney to score at anytime looks pretty good

I'm interested in this bet, I would like to know which is better 5/6 anytime or 7/2 fgs e/w with 1/3 odds on the e/w part?

[tikay]

Not been reading Fred for long enough to know if a policy has been decided upon for value purposes?

As the owner of the Astracad bet for Saturdays racing, we took 12-1. Best price is now (only half prices listed after decs).

Not my own policy, but at what price do the Wise Ones on here lay back to either secure stake back and have a freebie(ie lay at and have no exposure but a free chance at a 6-1 winner), or wait for 3-1 and lock in guranteed profit?

Or will Fred always just let it ride?

Hope that makes sense, as I expect the momentum that is gathering behind this, it will go off nearer , and welcome thoughts.

VERY good question!

Some of us here would always do as you suggest, & lock up a profit now.

However........the Elders generally frown upon this practice, suggesting, if I recall the phrase used 17,000 times, that in doing so, we are "pissing equity up the wall".

I'll ask a "Wise One" to comment.

AS the Bet Owner, of course, you CAN suggest we do so, but I'd need a little guidance & reassurance from others before doing so.

[The Camel]

Not been reading Fred for long enough to know if a policy has been decided upon for value purposes?

As the owner of the Astracad bet for Saturdays racing, we took 12-1. Best price is now (only half prices listed after decs).

Not my own policy, but at what price do the Wise Ones on here lay back to either secure stake back and have a freebie(ie lay at and have no exposure but a free chance at a 6-1 winner), or wait for 3-1 and lock in guranteed profit?

Or will Fred always just let it ride?

Hope that makes sense, as I expect the momentum that is gathering behind this, it will go off nearer , and welcome thoughts.

I'm trying to think of a concise way of answering this...

Did you back it to trade or because you thought it was a value bet?

The best way of working out if a bet is value is to price up the event yourself.

If you are thinking of laying something, price it up to 110%.

While if you are looking to back something, price it up to 90%.

When you get more experienced, you can trim those percentages down.

If the price on offer is better value than your price, you've got a bet!

[BigAdz]

Oh trust me, I would never dream of trading at such a stage.

On the same basis as I rarely back each way, I much rather lay in running, any horseve backed at a big price(12s+) at 2-3s on the machine(invariably if they are in with any chance or even look like winning, there is always some fool panicing way too early) since I have adopted this regime, my profitability has soared.

For a bet such as this,  especially as I will be there and not in front of machine, I would lay lay for double the stake, to at least try and make some profit on a decent outlay, if it looks like winning and still get cooked.

Again, I hope this makes sense?!

[Doobs]

edit Atherton on Sky

"that score is worth 270-5 on a more normal pitch"

"never seen a pitch as cracked as this, they widened considerably in the 48 hours before the match"


Thread might not want to...but England at 9/4 is the bet

3.45 on Betfair which is better after commission.  I laid India to top up my bet, so we may end up in the same place.  

[The Camel]

More specifically, when you backed Astracad, what price did you think it *should* be?

Obviously less than 12/1, but how much less?

What is the minimum price you would have taken?

As a rule of thumb, if the price falls below your minimum price, it becomes a lay..

[BigAdz]

More specifically, when you backed Astracad, what price did you think it *should* be?

Obviously less than 12/1, but how much less?

What is the minimum price you would have taken?

As a rule of thumb, if the price falls below your minimum price, it becomes a lay..

This is where the line blurs for me. I will look for value(I felt Astra was probably an 8-1 type proposition), but inevitably the punter in me takes over and wants to let it ride. The finally the 3rd part of the process hits as the race is upon us, and I nit up, thinking I want to make something back for a good run-hence the low lay.

It has taken me the thick end of twenty five years to get to this "confused" state of punting but works well for me now, and I rarely feel as if I have left anything behind.

In reality, I lose a bit of equity by laying between 2-3 but this is nearly always overridden by the pleasure of securing another winning bet, and my stats show on the losers, I have won money that ordinarily would be lost.

[The Camel]

More specifically, when you backed Astracad, what price did you think it *should* be?

Obviously less than 12/1, but how much less?

What is the minimum price you would have taken?

As a rule of thumb, if the price falls below your minimum price, it becomes a lay..

This is where the line blurs for me. I will look for value(I felt Astra was probably an 8-1 type proposition), but inevitably the punter in me takes over and wants to let it ride. The finally the 3rd part of the process hits as the race is upon us, and I nit up, thinking I want to make something back for a good run-hence the low lay.

It has taken me the thick end of twenty five years to get to this "confused" state of punting but works well for me now, and I rarely feel as if I have left anything behind.

In reality, I lose a bit of equity by laying between 2-3 but this is nearly always overridden by the pleasure of securing another winning bet, and my stats show on the losers, I have won money that ordinarily would be lost.

Ok, so you made it 8/1.

With a little margin for error, it's a bet at 12/1 (which you took) and a lay at maybe 6/1?

So if it touches 6's  lay it!

[BigAdz]

Camel

I cant!!....but I dont mind advocating that Fred does!!

[tikay]

e-Mail from Boylesports......


Special Price - Taylor 5/2
  He has been crowned PDC World Darts Champion 13 times already, which is why we are enhancing Phil Taylor from 2/1 to 5/2 to win the tournament for today only! Don’t miss out on this exclusive offer and back ‘The Power’ from midday today!
 
He is generally 2/1 at present.

[tikay]

Following my Wycombe success - Lets get the darts going; the PDC world starts Friday and I think I have found a smidgen of value in the betting on the "Fourth Quarter"

Recommendation £40 Justin Pipe 15/2 Boyles

So, why.  Well I could right an essay having gone through the draw, however I will keep it fairly brief.

James Wade is favourite - clearly brilliant, yet troubled.  I think the longer tournament gives him more time to melt down and we have maximum time to face him, as we cannot meet him until the QF.  Also in this group of eight, we have probably the most dangerous of the non Top 16 in Beaton and Mervyn king - not overly afraid of wither, although they may represent tougher challenges than some of our "also rans"

Moving to other group of eight - I would have been considering Huybrechts - who made the recent players final at the expense of our man, however sad news - his dad passed away last week.  I think this probably means steer clear, altho can go the other way obviously.  Wes Newton is a very talented player - however continually fails to translate his floor form to the big stage.

Our man - well this year has been a breakthrough year.  he made semis of Players at Butlins, made the last 16 last year, QF of World matchplay, and has risen to 9 in the PDC rankings.  He has to get past a woeful Andy Jenkins, then Mark Walsh, who as made one last 16 this year and is ranked 22.  then its Newton or Huybrechts.  If we get this far and wade crashes can get out and bank if we want to if Wade gone or let it ride

More importantly - this is the weakest quarter and I just cant be with Wade, Newton or Huybrechts.  Throw in our man has the ability to piss of the most patient of throwers and thoroughly annoy fast paced players and we have a bet.  As short as 9/2, generally - Boyles are out of line

Would be interested in Dubai, Snowball thoughts amongst others - however I am on.

Thanks Shaun, I'll have a look at that later this afternoon.

[tikay]

Darts - PDC Worlds.

Don't forget, when suggesting "outright" bets for this, that we already have a position, in that we have bet on MVG - £10 @ 50/1 - suggested by Bazzaboy back in October.

[outragous76]

Darts - PDC Worlds.

Don't forget, when suggesting "outright" bets for this, that we already have a position, in that we have bet on MVG - £10 @ 50/1 - suggested by Bazzaboy back in October.

incred tekkers by bazza

[bobby1]

Darts - PDC Worlds.

Don't forget, when suggesting "outright" bets for this, that we already have a position, in that we have bet on MVG - £10 @ 50/1 - suggested by Bazzaboy back in October.

incred tekkers by bazza

+1, The MVG bet and the 12.12 bet must be among the best bets the thread has ever seen. The goalscorer bet was an incred price.

When Tony does his T4T annual review how about a poll to judge the bet of the year, if it's done str8 the winner could get a honorary bet of their choosing to start the next year off. We could also have a worst bet of the year too but only the owner of that bet can put it forward......I better start now.


How about that Mr K?