Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I'm a Robbo fan but agree the Trump lay makes the most sense.

That is unless we think there's a value outsider because of the way the draw is set up?

[DungBeetle]

Laying 4-1 shots doesn't really get the juices going though

Think I'll have a poke on Robbo at 7-1 or whatever he is.

Best canvas some other opinion if Trump is over-rated though!  Just my opinion, but Selby, Robertson and indeed Murphy have seemed at least his equal over the last 6 months when I have seen them in my opinion.

[Doobs]

I must say I think there is value all over the shop in both the Masters and the Worlds, because I don't see how Judd Trump can be as short as he is as market leader in both events.  Murphy, Selby and Robertson all look to have generous prices in both events, so depending on which player you favour I do think there is value to be had due to an over-rated favourite.  Or we could just lay Trump I guess for the low return option.

Just because Trump "is too short" doesn't mean the others are value.  He is 9/2 best, so even if he should be 6/1 then that extra 4% could easily be eaten up by overound on the market. I don't really follow snooker much, but the price is unlikely to be out by much more than that, if at all.

As others have said, laying Trump is probably the best route if you are correct in your view.

For those who don't follow, the 9/2 is equivalent to about 18% chance of winning, 6/1 is equivalent to 14%.

[TightEnd]

The draw for the masters is here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Masters_%28snooker%29

A few things

- Murphy is in the far tougher half. To win he'd have to beat Higgins or Carter who are both teak tough matchplayers, then Robertson and then a final. To my mind this is why he is 10-1

- In the bottom half, which to my mind looks far weaker, Trump has a reasonable path as far as Selby


Brag. I met Selby over Xmas. Big Leicester fan, and a friend is a very good friend of his. He (the friend) tells me that Selby is fit, hungry and wants to win everything asap as he worries that his neck/spine condition won't see him in the game in the long term as there's a degenerative weakness there

Just to complicate things I far prefer Selby at 7-1 to Murphy at 10-1 looking at a) the draw and b) Trump might not give a damn about the event.

[DungBeetle]

Hmm - that top half does look brutal doesn't it.  Robbo, Allen, Muprhy, Higgins as well as Carter and Ding. 

[DungBeetle]

One word of warning though - I don't think Bingham is an easy game for Selby in the first round.  He has to be by far the most improved player on the circuit the last 12 months.  I think when he played Maguire in the UK Champs he went off favourite which shows how far he has come.

[TightEnd]

My point is

- the top half is really tough. I don't want to be backing anyone in that half

- I don't want to be laying Trump in the bottom half really given its comparative weakness. Trump has a squiggle to my mind. Tough to lay tough to back, because who knows which player is turning up?

I'd take a path of Bingham/Williams or Stevens through to the semis for Selby as one of the better routes through in the draw

[Doobs]

Flemenstar also has an entry for the Queen Mum Doobs.

You can definitely come to the conclusion (as I did, even if puzzled) that Pricewise also saw the Lexus, yet has reason to believe he is suddenly going to get an extra quarter mile, or be withdrawn.

I know he has a QM entry.  I became aware of it after backing Flrmenstar for the Ryanair in the wake of the Lexus.  So I am now in possession of 2 vouchers at shorter prices than the current price on Flemenstar.  FML

[Doobs]

MASTERS SNOOKER 2013

i would recommend a small wager on Shaun Murphy (available at 10s).  been very consistent in Televised events recently.  Trump far too short at 7/2.

Any further views on this?

Shaun Murphy remains available @ 10/1, 11/1 in places.

You can beat the 11s on Betfair. 

[Tal]

My point is

- the top half is really tough. I don't want to be backing anyone in that half

- I don't want to be laying Trump in the bottom half really given its comparative weakness. Trump has a squiggle to my mind. Tough to lay tough to back, because who knows which player is turning up?

I'd take a path of Bingham/Williams or Stevens through to the semis for Selby as one of the better routes through in the draw

Maguire and Dott on paper you'd think would be worth something but neither is particularly setting the world alight. Dott just came second to Selby in the PTC Germany but beat no top 16 player (AFAIK) to get there. Maguire hasn't got past the second round this season.

Interesting draw.

[DungBeetle]

Speaking of Bingham, views on 20-1?  He is 5/4 to beat Selby in R1, would be favourite to beat Williams/Stevens and then it would be time to test out if Trump is over-rated.  Always chance Trump fails again against Hawkins/Maguire and Bingham would be favourite against both of those if that occurred.

Ok - Selby will probably beat him, but thoughts on 20-1 to small stakes?

[tikay]

Tighty,

If you get a moment, can you give a view on the cricket bets suggested by "gherkhin" please?

He went for Tredwell Top English Bowler, & Bell as the Top English Batsman.

hector agreed, I think, with Bell, but I don't believe he commented upon Tredwell.

If we do either or both, they will be owned by gherkhin, but I don't have a clue as to their merits.

[TightEnd]

Tighty,

If you get a moment, can you give a view on the cricket bets suggested by "gherkhin" please?

He went for Tredwell Top English Bowler, & Bell as the Top English Batsman.

hector agreed, I think, with Bell, but I don't believe he commented upon Tredwell.

If we do either or both, they will be owned by gherkhin, but I don't have a clue as to their merits.

Got no real reason to disagree with Bell

Tredwell. Intrinsically I don't think he's enough of a wicket-taker, Very clever experienced bowler but he'll be bowling in the middle overs where the batsmen will be nudging and nurdling and not taking too many risks.

As a standard offie he won't be bamboozling the opposition but will probably do a very good job in keeping things tight

When it comes to taking wickets though, I'd be looking at one of the seamers who is bowling start and end of innings when a) the ball will be new and b) batting risks will be taken at the death

Boringly Finn at anything over 3-1 is probably a worthy favourite.

[tikay]

Tighty,

If you get a moment, can you give a view on the cricket bets suggested by "gherkhin" please?

He went for Tredwell Top English Bowler, & Bell as the Top English Batsman.

hector agreed, I think, with Bell, but I don't believe he commented upon Tredwell.

If we do either or both, they will be owned by gherkhin, but I don't have a clue as to their merits.

Got no real reason to disagree with Bell

Tredwell. Intrinsically I don't think he's enough of a wicket-taker, Very clever experienced bowler but he'll be bowling in the middle overs where the batsmen will be nudging and nurdling and not taking too many risks.

As a standard offie he won't be bamboozling the opposition but will probably do a very good job in keeping things tight

When it comes to taking wickets though, I'd be looking at one of the seamers who is bowling start and end of innings when a) the ball will be new and b) batting risks will be taken at the death

Boringly Finn at anything over 3-1 is probably a worthy favourite.

Excellent, thanks Tighty.

Over to you then, gherkhin!

[Chompy]

MASTERS SNOOKER 2013

i would recommend a small wager on Shaun Murphy (available at 10s).  been very consistent in Televised events recently.  Trump far too short at 7/2.

Smurph is 11's in places, but Coral refund up to £100 if Trump wins, he's 10's there.

He also struggled in some short best of 5 Championship League snooker yesterday and said on twitter ''I'm useless off camera'', or to that effect.

totally agree - was talking to him at last years event - doesnt take the non televised events seriously - only looking to concentatre on the big 3-4 events

Ruholding! I remember you! You're the fella what stopped me backing Van Persie for top Prem scorer @ 16/1 last season isn't it?

Rylan now 5/4 biggest. Mid-afternoon contraction normally means a good show is imminent that evening in my experience. Predicted ETA into Oddsonville = some time tomorrow.

11/8 biggest now. Guess the Show was not so good.


http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebrity-big-brother/celebrity-big-brother/winner

Slight negative on last night's show when the three who are up for eviction tonight were aked who they think has a gameplan.

Spencer said Rylan - he was the only one to nominate our boy - and Paula of cuckooland then said the same thing. Being seen as a game player is never a good thing but the views of that pair won't do any damage long term imo.