Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Guardiola to Bayern on 3 yr deal

Shakes up a few long term manager markets!

Shocked by that, really. I had it in mind that Man Utd, with Sir Alex approaching his dotage, would not pass up the opportunity.

How wrong could I be?

A lad I worked with told me one of his mates who works for VC had a customer ring up trying to get £50k on Guardiola to be next Bayern manager. They only laid him 1, the info was good but didn't fancy having money tied up for whenever they decided to announce it.

My mate was dancing today!

Nice try him, good luck trying to get £50k on a "Next Manager" Market!

Still a nice touch, mind.

[AndrewT]

Re: the QPR bet.

Imagine there's a market - pick a football club to get married.

QPR is single. QPR is throwing the money around like it's going out of date. QPR goes down the local strip club (as this is the only month from Sep-May that they're allowed). QPR has ladies flocking round it.

'Look - that club shows a lot of promise to get married - look at all the female interest it's getting. This looks a great bet'

Perhaps the ladies it's attracting are not marriage material?

In summary - this French guy is a chancer. Reading/Southampton have developed teeth. Hello Championship.

[maldini32]

Guardiola to Bayern on 3 yr deal

Shakes up a few long term manager markets!

Shocked by that, really. I had it in mind that Man Utd, with Sir Alex approaching his dotage, would not pass up the opportunity.

How wrong could I be?

A lad I worked with told me one of his mates who works for VC had a customer ring up trying to get £50k on Guardiola to be next Bayern manager. They only laid him 1, the info was good but didn't fancy having money tied up for whenever they decided to announce it.

My mate was dancing today!

Nice try him, good luck trying to get £50k on a "Next Manager" Market!

Still a nice touch, mind.

Yep, exactly my thoughts!

[JaffaCake]

Really like Brooklyn Nets to win at Atlanta Hawks tonight. Brooklyn the hottest team in the NBA, and have won 9 in 10 since they sacked their coach and put veteran PJ Carlisimo in charge. They're averaging more points and conceding less. Plus Joe Johnson has been red hot, and this is his first return to Atlanta since being traded in the summer.

Atlanta have lost 6 of the last 7, got smashed 97-58 last time out, and have suspended their best player by a mile Josh Smith for one game for his behaviour, which he has come out and said basically he hates losing but chose the wrong way to display it. 7/5 with Billy Hill is far too big, I think Brooklyn should be favourites. Can go nitty with a three point start at 10/11 should u wish

Thank you Mr K.

We are in a good mood tonight, & can freeroll a bet, as CBB Guru Chompy assured us that Heidi Spencer would be evicted from CBB this evening, & we got on at a tasty 8/1, so we have cash in our pocket.

We have got on your bet, though we went Route Nit, & took 10/11 +3.5 (not +3, you note), with Corals.

We have £33 @ 10/11, Corals, Brooklyn Nets (+3.5) to whop Atlanta Hawks.

ON

Brooklyn Nets +3.510/11Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks - 17/01/2013Stake £33.00
Estimated Return:£63.00 

I've had a rather large bet on the Nets, good luck to us both! Spoke to a mate in Vegas who loves Washington at Colorado with a -4 start but I don't really do college hoops so unless u get some feedback, that one can be a watching brief

[action man]

Actually disagree on the greening. I think the main problem that people have when they think about greening is that they don't consider it as a new bet that has absolutely nothing to do with the business that has already been done.

 I think if someone thinks we should green out on QPR, (as they did here), they should come on and ask what does everyone think of QPR to stay up as a bet at the current price. If people think QPR to stay up is a good bet then that should be bet. If people think it's a really good bet then enough should be bet such that Fred now wishes QPR to stay up.

 It is massively important that punters get into the mindset of thinking that they are simply having a new bet in the opposite direction and that they ask themselves the question:

 "would I have this bet at this price if I came into this market fresh, with no position?".

 It is no coincidence that Betunfair are spending lots of money promoting there "take" option which simply encourages people to pay lots more commission.

 It is also common for markets to be wrong due to a bias in the market and for that bias to never correct itself over time, prior to the event finishing. It is very rare in a sporting event for the market to be totally wrong one way and then half-way through to be totally wrong the other way.

 When greening you usually end up with one of the bets being terrible.
 
 

wow ive been trying to explain this to people for a long time. This, of course only realistically becomes correct thinking if we are betting within our bankroll. I would never tell someone who has £50 on at 300 not to lay off at 2.2 if they are skint and need the money.
 

[DungBeetle]

"When greening you usually end up with one of the bets being terrible."

I spent about 2 years trying to explain this to people on the befunfair forum to the self styled tennis "super-traders" but they were clueless.  They simply did not get it.

[Bad Beat]

 I've never heard of one of those tennis people ever getting a match wrong or being on the wrong side of a swing. About 2% of customers are long-term winners on Betfair.

[Tal]

I've never heard of one of those tennis people ever getting a match wrong or being on the wrong side of a swing. About 2% of customers are long-term winners on Betfair.

That 2% is an incredible stat. Is it a reflection on the amount of commission?

[tikay]

Bulls snap Nets 7 game streak

Or, in plain English, the Nets got a bit beaten up by the Hawks, we were on the Nets +3.5, but with the score 109-95 in the Hawks favour, we needed a lot more than a 3.5 start.

The Hawks were never behind, they won the first three quarters, with the Nets winning the fourth quarter.

Don't forget, NBA comes to LONDON, & Sky Sports, tonight, when the Pistons play someone. 

[doubleup]

Actually disagree on the greening. I think the main problem that people have when they think about greening is that they don't consider it as a new bet that has absolutely nothing to do with the business that has already been done.

 I think if someone thinks we should green out on QPR, (as they did here), they should come on and ask what does everyone think of QPR to stay up as a bet at the current price. If people think QPR to stay up is a good bet then that should be bet. If people think it's a really good bet then enough should be bet such that Fred now wishes QPR to stay up.

 It is massively important that punters get into the mindset of thinking that they are simply having a new bet in the opposite direction and that they ask themselves the question:

 "would I have this bet at this price if I came into this market fresh, with no position?".

It is no coincidence that Betunfair are spending lots of money promoting there "take" option which simply encourages people to pay lots more commission.

 It is also common for markets to be wrong due to a bias in the market and for that bias to never correct itself over time, prior to the event finishing. It is very rare in a sporting event for the market to be totally wrong one way and then half-way through to be totally wrong the other way.

 When greening you usually end up with one of the bets being terrible.
 
 

hmmm I can prove that greening when the price is close to accurate will actually SAVE you commission. 

You think the price is 2 and it is available at 2.2

You take that price for £100 and the market moves to 2

If you green at 2.01 you make £8.55 profit after comission

If you let the bet run, your return is 50% of £214 (£6 commission paid from the 220 return) - so £7 profit.

So imo when the market has moved to near accuracy you should always green. 

I realise that your argument is based on the accuracy of the greening price, but the commission bit (from your perspective) isn't really right.

[BigAdz]

Whatever happened to betting like men and letting your bet ride to the max?!

[tikay]

Whatever happened to betting like men and letting your bet ride to the max?!

Plenty still do, but I think Rick Trigg, who may have had a bet or two in his time said.....

This, of course only realistically becomes correct thinking if we are betting within our bankroll. I would never tell someone who has £50 on at 300 not to lay off at 2.2 if they are skint and need the money.

Technically, it is wrong, but Rick has done that rarest of rare things, & seen the debate from the other side of the fence.

[edgascoigne]

Neil - the reason Betfair launched/are pushing the 'cash out now' option is two-fold. (I worked there for 3yrs...)

1) The offer given to customers is inefficient, and obviously slanted in Betfair's favour. Ie. you pay a premium for hitting the simplified gold and black button beyond the price that the trade will be effected at.

2) Betfair hate recreational players losing their money 'too quickly' as this experience can lead to a reluctance to re-deposit/play on the site again (and of course comm. paid ultimately comes from the pockets of the losers, rather than the winners). The cash-out now option erodes the customer's longterm EV (which they don't notice) whilst cutting their short-term variance (which they do notice). Betfair actually benefit from both of these outcomes.

[doubleup]

Technically, it is wrong,

it isn't technically wrong.  If the greening price is accurate it is technically right!

[tikay]

Technically, it is wrong,

it isn't technically wrong.  If the greening price is accurate it is technically right!

Yes, but you get my drift, in the context of the discussion.

Some folks green out too readily, some refuse to because it is not deemed to be manly. The realiity, which many of us are now learning from Fred, is that it is NOT black & white.