Tips for Tikay

[smashedagain]

Ralph, ever since I joined Blonde I've been reading your name as Karabinder, but thanks to a TV quiz show I now know that a Karabiner is a piece of mountaineering equipment!

Thought I'd let you know

Happy punting to fred

1 v 100 Dan or was it the chase

[horseplayer]

Question re E/W betting...

Watford 33/1 to win league but 1/5th odds for top 3.

If I put £250 (total stake) on top 3 finish, and they come 3rd, what profit do I make?!

£950ish return on that

Thanks! how do you arrive to £950ish? £125 * 33 *0.2 ?

As above put plus your winning stake back so (125*33*0.2)+125

quite simple really

125 * 6.6 (your odds of 1-5) =825 + stake = 950

[anthonyl]

thanks mate

[DMorgan]

Ralph, ever since I joined Blonde I've been reading your name as Karabinder, but thanks to a TV quiz show I now know that a Karabiner is a piece of mountaineering equipment!

Thought I'd let you know

Happy punting to fred

1 v 100 Dan or was it the chase

You got me, it was the chase.

[Simon Galloway]

Greening out.

Most of it (at least my opinion of most of it) has already been covered, bar one area.

Yes, if you are within BRM, no need to.  Yes, if you think the price is wrong, you shouldn't sell back enough to green out, you should reverse the position and bet the other way.  Yes, if you are a casual punter (or a pro, but don't have the BR you did when you struck the bet) then greening out to reduce exposure can make sense, even if at a bad price.

But the area that hasn't raised much discussion is the human trait that prevents us from admitting when we are wrong.  Never better explained than in a game of Backgammon when someone offers you the double.  If you think you are worse than 1/2 to win the game, you should prolly refuse the double and pay up single stakes.  Yet you can offer the double to a lot of people that are about 1/5 to win the game and they snap-accept it - they can't admit they were wrong and take their licks.

In trading parlance, it is called eating like a bird and crapping like an elephant.  Any trader can buy, watch the stock go up and consider themself to be trader of the year..  But the only way to find out who the skilled ones are are to wait for them to buy and watch the stock plummet.  Now you can see where the skill likes.

Back to greening out on BF.  The reason I think most people would be guilty of a mistake is cutting profits too soon (to lock up a profit) and yet running losses (refusing to "red out" and admit they were wrong.)  So they never give themselves a chance to enjoy freak returns, only small profits or big losses.  That is human nature, but obviously the wrong way round if you want to do it for a living. 

[Doobs]

Tarla about to go at Thurles, let's get this TTF bet on the road.

Edit:  Fell 2 out, didn't look like the definite winner at the time, had drifted out to 3 on befair.

Back to hurdling I guess?

Glad I was limited to a fiver now!

[Karabiner]

Tarl about to go at Thurles, let's get this TTF bet on the road

I just watched the market on BF and no less than four horses traded decent odds-on IR.

By decent I mean under 1.25

[Doobs]

Tarl about to go at Thurles, let's get this TTF bet on the road

I just watched the market on BF and no less than four horses traded decent odds-on IR.

Tarla was 1.2 or so at one time, and had gone a few lengths clear and looked a likely easy winner about 4 out.  But the others had come back to her and she wasn't looking nearly as certain to win before she fell.

[StuartHopkin]

My fault guys sorry.

Would I be wrong in thinking that if i layed every horse that was 1/2 or shorter then I would clear up constantly?

When I back them it feels like they rarely win :-(

[Doobs]

My fault guys sorry.

Would I be wrong in thinking that if i layed every horse that was 1/2 or shorter then I would clear up constantly?

When I back them it feels like they rarely win :-(

If you took bookes odds, you'd do better in the long run backing short priced horses than long priced ones.  I just assume shorter priced horses are going to be closer to their true odds than longer priced ones.   

Also on betfair, if you back random short priced horses, you are betting at slightly too short a price on average, if you lay randomly you are probably laying slightly too big a price on average.

I expect the answer to your question would be no if your method of laying was betfair, and it would be expensive to find out if you were right. 

[doubleup]

Back to greening out on BF.  The reason I think most people would be guilty of a mistake is cutting profits too soon (to lock up a profit) and yet running losses (refusing to "red out" and admit they were wrong.)  So they never give themselves a chance to enjoy freak returns, only small profits or big losses.  That is human nature, but obviously the wrong way round if you want to do it for a living.  

Thats a whole different thing imo (more related to pure trading than value betting).  You have to start all discussions on greening with the premise that when you took the bet it was ev+.  The debateable point is when that value is crystalized.  

If your value is based on inside info, then as soon as that info is public you should green out.

If your value is based on your model or opinion then, as BadBeat says the value will probably never be crystalized until the end of the event.

[StuartHopkin]

My fault guys sorry.

Would I be wrong in thinking that if i layed every horse that was 1/2 or shorter then I would clear up constantly?

When I back them it feels like they rarely win :-(

If you took bookes odds, you'd do better in the long run backing short priced horses than long priced ones.  I just assume shorter priced horses are going to be closer to their true odds than longer priced ones.   

Also on betfair, if you back random short priced horses, you are betting at slightly too short a price on average, if you lay randomly you are probably laying slightly too big a price on average.

I expect the answer to your question would be no if your method of laying was betfair, and it would be expensive to find out if you were right. 

I expect so too, its just one of those things that sticks in your head. Pretty sure I have only bet seriously odds on horses about 10 times and 8 of them have lost!

Could make for an interesting diary though...

Hopkins year of laying the clear favourites.......

[redarmi]

Back to greening out on BF.  The reason I think most people would be guilty of a mistake is cutting profits too soon (to lock up a profit) and yet running losses (refusing to "red out" and admit they were wrong.)  So they never give themselves a chance to enjoy freak returns, only small profits or big losses.  That is human nature, but obviously the wrong way round if you want to do it for a living.  

Thats a whole different thing imo (more related to pure trading than value betting).  You have to start all discussions on greening with the premise that when you took the bet it was ev+.  The debateable point is when that value is crystalized.  

If your value is based on inside info, then as soon as that info is public you should green out.

If your value is based on your model or opinion then, as BadBeat says the value will probably never be crystalized until the end of the event.

Bets based on specific info are very rare indeed and I can only think of a handful on here and the bet in question on QPR is certainly not an example.  I think Simons analogy was a good one.  There is much talk on here about greening out for a profit but never once have I seen anyone suggest that we "red" out for a loss and taking small profits for wins and big losses for losers is about the nut worst strategy.  Ultimately, I think that the correct strategy is a simple one.  Never green out if the greening out price is -EV.  If the greening out price is neutral EV there is an argument that it is slightly +ev to green out in terms of commission saved and if the greening out price is value then it is happy days all around.

[rfgqqabc]

http://www.doncasterroversfc.co.uk/news/article/brian-flynn-confirmed-as-manager-605369.aspx

Brian Flynn and Rob Jones takeover from position as Caretaker/2nd in Command. I think it'll be good for our bet but poor long term really. Surely a lack of experience will show in the end? Hopefully momentum/team spirit/transfers will carry us through.

[doubleup]

Back to greening out on BF.  The reason I think most people would be guilty of a mistake is cutting profits too soon (to lock up a profit) and yet running losses (refusing to "red out" and admit they were wrong.)  So they never give themselves a chance to enjoy freak returns, only small profits or big losses.  That is human nature, but obviously the wrong way round if you want to do it for a living.  

Thats a whole different thing imo (more related to pure trading than value betting).  You have to start all discussions on greening with the premise that when you took the bet it was ev+.  The debateable point is when that value is crystalized.  

If your value is based on inside info, then as soon as that info is public you should green out.

If your value is based on your model or opinion then, as BadBeat says the value will probably never be crystalized until the end of the event.

Bets based on specific info are very rare indeed and I can only think of a handful on here and the bet in question on QPR is certainly not an example.  I think Simons analogy was a good one.  There is much talk on here about greening out for a profit but never once have I seen anyone suggest that we "red" out for a loss and taking small profits for wins and big losses for losers is about the nut worst strategy.  Ultimately, I think that the correct strategy is a simple one.  Never green out if the greening out price is -EV.  If the greening out price is neutral EV there is an argument that it is slightly +ev to green out in terms of commission saved and if the greening out price is value then it is happy days all around.

obv the bolded bit is correct, but that isn't what happens in practice with thread bets.  Just because a price moves the wrong way it doesn't mean you have no equity.   You just have apparently less equity than you had. 

If you know the reason for the price move, you can re-assess the bet and decide to keep or close but to close the bet simply because the market has moved against you* seems a bit mad (bringing us back to your "Never green out if the greening out price is -EV").

*traders might do this but only because they never intend to go to settlement.  Their bet was simply on a price movement that they got wrong.