Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

You dont fancy doing a "Channing" and going round all the Stan James shops

in this lovely weather then ?

All is well in Moulty Towers by the way.

You havent been in the "allotment" recently ?

Are things still growing?

Go into betting shops?

What, with the public & that?

Heaven forbid.......

Jeez, I spent a good few years in betting shops, both sides of the counter. I can genuinely say I enjoyed working in a betting shop more than going in to punt. Such a buzz, "us against the rest"!

Sadly, I ended up working in one, & doing my entire wages punting at the same time, so going home was a miserable experience, knowing I had just worked all day for nothing.

Yeah, the weather is interesting, though I must say, the snow looks beautiful.

I had a potentially hellish journey today, I left London at 7am, went to Derbyshire, & then headed straight back to London, 6 hours non-stop. It snowed every yard, & yet I never hit a single jam, not one. I run so good.

I'm not entirely sure if the soil in my allotment remains fertile. Not even had an afternoon nap for over a week, I have just finished THE most stressful work week of my life, which, coupled with 6am - 9pm daily for three straight days has left me wrecked. Happily wrecked mind.

Nearly time I was put out to grass methinks.

[Simon Galloway]

Blimey, the greatest betting certainty ever is that if I forget to give credit where it's due, I will be reminded.......sorry Simon, I was very busy at the time, & rushing, as I've been mostly offline for 3 days & was on catch-up.   

You never answered my question, though, as to the example I gave on potentially redding our Walsall bet.

Only a gentle rib tickler, no apology ever needed, but after getting a couple of bets wrong, and being know to deliberately take the worst of it for non-financial reasons, I can feel myself growing gills.

As for your Walsall bet (apologies, I didn't realise the question was directed at me ) - here's my take - and please don't take it as a dig.

In your comments in that post, it seems like you are getting muddled quite a bit about what bet you need to strike to get out.  In other words, in the same way you have had a few misclicks recently, trying to green out and actually end up with double the bet you originally had via error means that if that sounds like a possibility to you.. then that is another variable that has yet to enter the greening out debate.

If errors are likely, then greening (or redding) out should be avoided always.  Regardless of whether each leg of the trade was taken at correct odds in isolation or not, ending up with positions you didn't think you had is the quick way to the madhouse.

You bet £60 @ 5/2 for Walsall to be relegated.  Your worse possible scenario is losing £60 (i.e. unlike spread trading, you can't be "wrong" 40 points and get a bigger bill after the event)  Backing Walsall again at any price doesn't red you out, in increases your exposure.  To red out, you'd have to lay Walsall being relegated.

Let's say you laid walsall for £5  (you wouldnt accept the 34.0 price on BF, you'd float your own offer and try and finesse the price) and ultimately got it matched at 25/1

Now if Walsall get relegated, you win £150 on fixed odds (and get your stake back) and have to pay out £125 to the BF counterparty for that losing bet.  = +£25
If Walsall stay up, your £60 bet loses, but you pick up £5 on BF.  That's all if no mistakes happen, i.e. very little protection.

Cliffs:  Don't red this bet out, just amortise the £60 in your mind

[redarmi]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

Think this is potentially a much more interesting debate than the greening out one.  IIRC Fred is currently making roughly 1% on turnover so any reduction in prices might turn them into a losing punter.  I must confess this happened to me for a while in the early 2000's.  From 1998 until about 2001 I generally had access to all the accounts i wanted and was able to get on with almost every firm and I cleaned up but then I started getting restricted and was forced to place some of my bets at less than best market price but I thought I had the game sussed and would be alright.  I didn't wasn't and for the next year or two I lost like 2% on turnover whilst I didn't do anything to fix some life leaks I had and I went skint and had to re-evaluate my entire approach and the way i thought about the game.  Now I use a variety of ways to get on and do give a lot of my business to a handful of firms and certainly give away some equity because of it but I am never quite sure if my approach is the best one and it is an approach borne out of neccesity.  If I could bet with Sky, , Boyles etc in my own name I almost certainly would I think and I would only be taking top prices because accounts at those firms just don't last long enough to sacrifice the equity.  Did you have any firms in mind Trigg?  One firm I wish I had dealt with a bit differently is 365 and I would give my left arm for an account there these days.

[tikay]

My suggestion was to LAY Walsall to be relegated. I only quoted "BACK" & "LAY" prices to give the full picture.

I have written off the £60 in my mind already, though we are on at 5/1, not 5/2. Apoogies if I typed 5/2.

[tikay]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

Think this is potentially a much more interesting debate than the greening out one.  IIRC Fred is currently making roughly 1% on turnover so any reduction in prices might turn them into a losing punter.  I must confess this happened to me for a while in the early 2000's.  From 1998 until about 2001 I generally had access to all the accounts i wanted and was able to get on with almost every firm and I cleaned up but then I started getting restricted and was forced to place some of my bets at less than best market price but I thought I had the game sussed and would be alright.  I didn't wasn't and for the next year or two I lost like 2% on turnover whilst I didn't do anything to fix some life leaks I had and I went skint and had to re-evaluate my entire approach and the way i thought about the game.  Now I use a variety of ways to get on and do give a lot of my business to a handful of firms and certainly give away some equity because of it but I am never quite sure if my approach is the best one and it is an approach borne out of neccesity.  If I could bet with Sky, , Boyles etc in my own name I almost certainly would I think and I would only be taking top prices because accounts at those firms just don't last long enough to sacrifice the equity.  Did you have any firms in mind Trigg?  One firm I wish I had dealt with a bit differently is 365 and I would give my left arm for an account there these days.

As a left-hander, not sure I'd pay that price, but yes, I much regret being able to punt with Bet365, they offer such an array of markets.

[TightEnd]

The Leicester game is off

Middlesborough team coach stuck on the ungritted Narborough Road (main road into Leicester from Fosse Park direction)..


edit: conflicting information!

[Simon Galloway]

Ok, your suggestion wasnt very clear (to me at least), lots of toggling between backing and laying.  If it is all crystal clear in your mind, then no probs, you should consider green/red.

However, the horse has bolted.  If 33/1 for example is the correct price, (I'm not going to do the maths here, but you get the idea) then you are being invited to red out for a loss of £59.999 = may as well not bother.  If you want to red out on a 5/2 shot, we prolly need to realise we made bad assumptions (or staff changes or whatever have happened) and jump ship when no worse than say 8/1 where we can actually salvage something if we know we got it wrong.

Obviously this can go too far the other way, some super nits consider redding out the second a 3pt result goes the wrong way.

[redarmi]

The Leicester game is off

Middlesborough team coach stuck on the ungritted Narborough Road (main road into Leicester from Fosse Park direction)..


edit: conflicting information!

Game 100% off?  seems pretty crazy if they got as far as that!!!!

[TightEnd]

The Leicester game is off

Middlesborough team coach stuck on the ungritted Narborough Road (main road into Leicester from Fosse Park direction)..


edit: conflicting information!

Game 100% off?  seems pretty crazy if they got as far as that!!!!

Currently missing an away team and two match officials

three leicester players tweeted they had abandoned cars and ran 2-3 miles to get there before the point the manager fines them for being late

 

[The Camel]

They showed pictures of the roads around the ground on Sky.

Surprised it isn't off already.

[The Camel]

The Leicester game is off

Middlesborough team coach stuck on the ungritted Narborough Road (main road into Leicester from Fosse Park direction)..


edit: conflicting information!

Game 100% off?  seems pretty crazy if they got as far as that!!!!

Currently missing an away team and two match officials

three leicester players tweeted they had abandoned cars and ran 2-3 miles to get there before the point the manager fines them for being late

 

I know Pearson is a hard taskmaster, but fining players for being late tonight would be a bit harsh.

[TightEnd]

They showed pictures of the roads around the ground on Sky.

Surprised it isn't off already.

Apparently it is a "no police" fixture

So the decision rests with the ref

Amazed its not off on crowd safety grounds

Click to see full-size image.

thats the boro coach about 2 miles away 5 minutes ago

Live updates, as they happen

[TightEnd]

Knockaert couldn't get a cab from the station, and was snapped half way on his run to the ground lol

Click to see full-size image.

[kpnuts]

Leicester City ‏@OfficialFOXES 2 seconds ago...

Tonight's game GOES AHEAD. @Boro have yet to arrive, so both clubs and match officials considering a delayed kick-off. More info soon...

[Chompy]

Re: Rylan, his price on Betunfair at the moment is correct, as most prices are on there.

He's currently around 1.39 to lay.

You have £100 @ 7/4, so he wins you £175.

The options are...

1. Let it ride;
2. Lay back £100 @ 1.39 for a free bet that produces a profit of £136;
3. Go green all round. If you lay £200 @ 1.39 any outcome would clear you approx £100.

I wouldn't say any of the choices are 'wrong'.

For the record I'm just letting it ride as I didn't really get enough on to tiddlearse around with. It's entirely York Hall.