Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In the "Greening" debate, reds, & then Neil, both mentioned "redding out".

The reason I think most people would be guilty of a mistake is cutting profits too soon (to lock up a profit) and yet running losses (refusing to "red out" and admit they were wrong.)  So they never give themselves a chance to enjoy freak returns, only small profits or big losses.  That is human nature, but obviously the wrong way round if you want to do it for a living. 

You missed my single opportunity this year to get any credit

Blimey, the greatest betting certainty ever is that if I forget to give credit where it's due, I will be reminded.......sorry Simon, I was very busy at the time, & rushing, as I've been mostly offline for 3 days & was on catch-up.   

You never answered my question, though, as to the example I gave on potentially redding our Walsall bet.

[tikay]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

[The Camel]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

[Snowball]

Tighty and Red, are yous suggesting that because of the conditions tonight that theirs less chance of goals?
I always thought this was the opposite and can think of 3 or 4 games off the top of my Head thats had either btts or over 2.5 goals when theirs been snow on the pitch.
Obviously this is a small sample but I would like to see if their is any other stats that would go against this?

[tikay]

Leics 9-2 with Stan James for championship. Stan the biggest price plus the only

firm going 1-4 odds first 3. To me this looks a bet to nothing because cannot see Leics

being out of first 3. Thoughts anyone ?

Jim!

We are currently persona non grata with Mr S James, but thank you anyway.

Hope you are well mate.

[action man]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

[tikay]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

[TightEnd]

Tighty and Red, are yous suggesting that because of the conditions tonight that theirs less chance of goals?
I always thought this was the opposite and can think of 3 or 4 games off the top of my Head thats had either btts or over 2.5 goals when theirs been snow on the pitch.
Obviously this is a small sample but I would like to see if their is any other stats that would go against this?

No empirical evidence

I have had some success at my modest levels going unders in bad weather for league football


redarmi's was probably a better way of doing it than unders, as I think it suits Middlesborough's more prosaic style (will be watching the glove count pre match)

[bookiebasher]

You dont fancy doing a "Channing" and going round all the Stan James shops

in this lovely weather then ?

All is well in Moulty Towers by the way.

You havent been in the "allotment" recently ?

Are things still growing?

[The Camel]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

[Ant040689]

With the Leicester Boro bet may i add that the last time I can think of that Boro came up against testing match conditions they lost at home to a dreadful Bristol City side who had lost a ridiculous amount of games straight, conceding 3 to them. Granted it was heavy fog, rather than a snowy pitch, but it may be a testament for them not being able to adapt well to testing conditions and a lot more than 2 goals going in.

Leicester hammering imo.

[tikay]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

Thanks MTT Superstar,

Yes, I recall you mentioning that.

I'm between a rock and a hard place here, if I take a price anything other than "best price", I tend to get a few complaints.

Do you genuinely think that if I punted everything with just one or two Firms, I would not have account problems?

There would then be an equation between "value lost" (by taking lesser prices) v the ability to always get on, though we bet fairly small amounts here.

PS - I wish you good luck with "My Tent or Yours". I have an interest at 20 on Betfair - not sure how or why, as I almost never back horses on my "own account".   

[tikay]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

Thanks Keith.

Please remember you own the Fred Bet, so we will do so only if & when you say the word.

If my maths are correct, getting out at 3.1 would mean we would have £250 at an average of approx 7, minus £250 at 3.1, so 3.9 points (minus comish) profit @ £250 per point. Is that correct?

So we would have left £750 on the Table in exchange for locking up a grand?

Is that the equation?

[tikay]

Greening out for the sake of it is not the ideal spot to put yourself in but at the other end of the scale all the talk of wasting equity is strange too. You are not wasting equity, you are exchanging some of it for cash because you have done a good job of finding value with the original bet. If you have backed something and you now think the price is right do you have to just blindly hold on to the whole bet?

I think a good maxim is don't gamble more than you can mentally afford to lose and that's not a bad thing to apply to trading good spots too if there is a big difference between the best result and the worst.

I played some of the MVG place position I had in the darts at the semi final stage, made him 1.3 and he was 1.26 but hand on heart tho would probably have traded it back at 1.26 if I had made him 1.22 myself because there will be plenty of times that I pitch something incorrectly and I wouldn't have gambled the amount riding on it at that moment if I was having a fresh bet on the match. So we are sitting on a pile of equity when we can lock in half the place amount for a small % of the actual place win and I am still playing for a decent amount more if he does win the semi. I am converting equity on one selection only into gtd cash on both results, I might have to pay a fraction more than I would like to release it tho.
.

Everyone's comfort level is different too. I don't mind admitting that in that spot I would have been sick to have left it all running at the semi stage holding such a good bet and got no return on what was a tremendous value bet.

Someone made a really good post earlier about the game having changed now Betfair is available and the whole 'giving equity away' just feels like an old fashioned view  imo that hasn't allowed for the new opportunities  ( and I don't mean that as an insult). It has opened up a whole new way of locking up money when you have called something right, without having to rely on the result, tho using the various instant cash out options will deffo not be the right way to hedge if you choose to do that.

Thanks Phil, terrific stuff.

I hope that bet you mentioned on MVG worked out well for you. I know very well that you are properly 'rolled for that bet, but the sums involved would have been a bit big for me not to contemplate hedging my position. Honestly, I would not enjoy a position where I got the bloody lot, or sfa. I'm a genuine nit.

[redarmi]

Tighty and Red, are yous suggesting that because of the conditions tonight that theirs less chance of goals?
I always thought this was the opposite and can think of 3 or 4 games off the top of my Head thats had either btts or over 2.5 goals when theirs been snow on the pitch.
Obviously this is a small sample but I would like to see if their is any other stats that would go against this?

It is an interesting debate and never one which I have been totally sure where I stand on it but generally the received wisdom is that bad weather leads to less scoring.  I tend to think that is more important in bad rain than snow though.  I generally prefer unders in this game though and snow is certainly a leveller for match result markets as slippery conditions generally narrow the skill gap a bit.