Tips for Tikay

[redsimon]

BBC saying its on but no pre match report because "we can't get our cameras to ground because of weather"!

[The Camel]

They showed pictures of the roads around the ground on Sky.

Surprised it isn't off already.

Apparently it is a "no police" fixture

So the decision rests with the ref

Amazed its not off on crowd safety grounds

Click to see full-size image.

thats the boro coach about 2 miles away 5 minutes ago

Live updates, as they happen

Odds on Sky "leaning" on the ref to make sure it goes ahead?

[TightEnd]

They showed pictures of the roads around the ground on Sky.

Surprised it isn't off already.

Apparently it is a "no police" fixture

So the decision rests with the ref

Amazed its not off on crowd safety grounds

Click to see full-size image.

thats the boro coach about 2 miles away 5 minutes ago

Live updates, as they happen

Odds on Sky "leaning" on the ref to make sure it goes ahead?

A certainty. The pitch is completely clear apparently.

[redsimon]

Do they have under soil heating?

[The Camel]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

Thanks Keith.

Please remember you own the Fred Bet, so we will do so only if & when you say the word.

If my maths are correct, getting out at 3.1 would mean we would have £250 at an average of approx 7, minus £250 at 3.1, so 3.9 points (minus comish) profit @ £250 per point. Is that correct?

So we would have left £750 on the Table in exchange for locking up a grand?

Is that the equation?

God, I hope you didn't do the accounts when you had to work for a living.

I've read that 6 times and I'm still not 100% sure I understand it!

We've had £250 on, that much I know.

In your betty account, how much does that show us winning?

[tikay]

Re: Rylan, his price on Betunfair at the moment is correct, as most prices are on there.

He's currently around 1.39 to lay.

You have £100 @ 7/4, so he wins you £175.

The options are...

1. Let it ride;
2. Lay back £100 @ 1.39 for a free bet that produces a profit of £136;
3. Go green all round. If you lay £200 @ 1.39 any outcome would clear you approx £100.

I wouldn't say any of the choices are 'wrong'.

For the record I'm just letting it ride as I didn't really get enough on to tiddlearse around with. It's entirely York Hall.

Beautifully explained. Clarity, at last.

[TightEnd]

Do they have under soil heating?

yes

pitch is green as a green thing

[redarmi]

Just heard the Boro team have abandoned the coach and are walking the rest of the way.......I don't get many chances to watch boro games now I am in Jamaica so I would have been devastated if it had been off!!!

[TightEnd]

Quite fancy second half goals now, tired legs!

lol

[redarmi]

Great minds etc.....I been thinking how I can take advantage of all of this....Not sure I love Boro bet as much as I did but seems to have affected both teams equally really.

[doubleup]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

Thanks Keith.

Please remember you own the Fred Bet, so we will do so only if & when you say the word.

If my maths are correct, getting out at 3.1 would mean we would have £250 at an average of approx 7, minus £250 at 3.1, so 3.9 points (minus comish) profit @ £250 per point. Is that correct?

So we would have left £750 on the Table in exchange for locking up a grand?

Is that the equation?

God, I hope you didn't do the accounts when you had to work for a living.

I've read that 6 times and I'm still not 100% sure I understand it!

We've had £250 on, that much I know.

In your betty account, how much does that show us winning?

If you have 250 at 7 and want to green out totally at 3.1 you should lay to a stake of £564.  This guarantees a profit of about 316 whether you win or lose.

[tikay]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

Thanks Keith.

Please remember you own the Fred Bet, so we will do so only if & when you say the word.

If my maths are correct, getting out at 3.1 would mean we would have £250 at an average of approx 7, minus £250 at 3.1, so 3.9 points (minus comish) profit @ £250 per point. Is that correct?

So we would have left £750 on the Table in exchange for locking up a grand?

Is that the equation?

God, I hope you didn't do the accounts when you had to work for a living.

I've read that 6 times and I'm still not 100% sure I understand it!

We've had £250 on, that much I know.

In your betty account, how much does that show us winning?

If you have 250 at 7 and want to green out totally at 3.1 you should lay to a stake of £564.  This guarantees a profit of about 316 whether you win or lose.

More clarity, thanks.

We will sit tight for now, unless his Ruminatorness requests otherwise.

[The Camel]

I don't have any figures but would be surprised if backing every horse that hits 1.3 IR to level stakes would show a profit in the long term. A lot of horses go odds-on IR and don't win.

so laying off at 1.3 is in effect a winning bet, you are letting someone bet at 1.3 with you and not only do you not have a liability with the bet, you win money.

I do have some figures


16184 horses started at an sp of greater than 2 and were <1.3 at some point in running

12966 of these won so you would pay out 3889 and take in 3218.  Thats a big loss even before commission.

Probably not a good idea then...

I hereby give permission for the Rylan bet to be greened up upon as long as Mr Camel and Mr B.Beat say it's ok.

Mr Chomps......

My head is spinning here, & I have no idea if you are messing, or serious about that.

Lord Channing is, to the best of my knowledge, on a jet 'plane to Australia, & has been since late last night, so I assume his Posts today were from a stopover somewhere, but we cannot assume he will be on Fred anytime soon.

Mr Camel, however, is very much here, & having a whale of an afternoon with all this Greening talk, & hopefully he or reds (or Mr Galloway) will have a view on the Redding debate.

Mr Camel would rather be in Australia tbf.

Hopefully Mr Kaepernick will keep me warm this weekend.

Are we still sitting tight on our 49-ers bet Keith?

I am, but the price is moving slowly but surely to the correct level imo.

Should have got more on at 3.7ish in the immediate aftermath of last weeks game!

Don't think you'd be doing much wrong to get out at 3.1 actually.

If it dips below 3, I might take some profit.

Thanks Keith.

Please remember you own the Fred Bet, so we will do so only if & when you say the word.

If my maths are correct, getting out at 3.1 would mean we would have £250 at an average of approx 7, minus £250 at 3.1, so 3.9 points (minus comish) profit @ £250 per point. Is that correct?

So we would have left £750 on the Table in exchange for locking up a grand?

Is that the equation?

God, I hope you didn't do the accounts when you had to work for a living.

I've read that 6 times and I'm still not 100% sure I understand it!

We've had £250 on, that much I know.

In your betty account, how much does that show us winning?

If you have 250 at 7 and want to green out totally at 3.1 you should lay to a stake of £564.  This guarantees a profit of about 316 whether you win or lose.

God, that seems like we have assumed an awful lot of risk for a very paltry return!

Totally unappealing to me.

[doubleup]

yep much more entertainment value in letting it run!

[The Camel]

Assuming we play New England in the Superbowl, I think that game is a flip.

I'd rather sit tight and then have an even monkey on the Pats in the final.

Again, I don't want anyone shouting at me if we lose on Sunday - I almost guarantee I will have lost more in money and equity than you have, so I really won't want to hear it - so everyone should do what is comfortable for them.