Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Saved ourselves some money by not backing the ODI runs anyway. All hail 6am weekend starts, our time.....Ther groundsman was probably right, too. Nice bouncy true pitch, but bad batting, good bowling and a decision or two would have cost us

What a great swerve that was!

[tikay]

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Hi Hector, love your tips, always well reasoned and explained.
William Hill can accommodate you for sending off...
Will There Be A Red Card?
20/1 Yes
1/150 No
Best of luck!

Amen to that, I had been hoping hector would offer up the Biarritz v Quins game last night, as Tighty notes, the pitch was more like a swimming pool. 25 points ensued.

[action man]

i see you are getting the odd account closed tony. I advised a while ago to stick to one or two bookies and they will be nice to you if you arent always on at the best industry price

Think this is potentially a much more interesting debate than the greening out one.  IIRC Fred is currently making roughly 1% on turnover so any reduction in prices might turn them into a losing punter.  I must confess this happened to me for a while in the early 2000's.  From 1998 until about 2001 I generally had access to all the accounts i wanted and was able to get on with almost every firm and I cleaned up but then I started getting restricted and was forced to place some of my bets at less than best market price but I thought I had the game sussed and would be alright.  I didn't wasn't and for the next year or two I lost like 2% on turnover whilst I didn't do anything to fix some life leaks I had and I went skint and had to re-evaluate my entire approach and the way i thought about the game.  Now I use a variety of ways to get on and do give a lot of my business to a handful of firms and certainly give away some equity because of it but I am never quite sure if my approach is the best one and it is an approach borne out of neccesity.  If I could bet with Sky, , Boyles etc in my own name I almost certainly would I think and I would only be taking top prices because accounts at those firms just don't last long enough to sacrifice the equity.  Did you have any firms in mind Trigg?  One firm I wish I had dealt with a bit differently is 365 and I would give my left arm for an account there these days.

365 is the only firm i can get on with and despite showing profit for the last 3 years on there, steady if not spectacular they will always lay be a horse to lose £2k without referall or if it refers they let me have the rest. I dont take the piss and they know this. I dont go having naughty e/w doubles and have all my degen punts on with them always. Ladbrokes were the same until i copped a lucky 10 bags on the nfl and now i can get laid to win £100 online and prob another £200 on the phone.

My thinking for fred is that the ROI will improve as it filters the sharpies on here from the clowns and adjusts staking, however there might not be anywhere to bet by then.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Before I, or anyone else, bets that, note that Paddy Power are now Under 35.5, not 36.5.

Sky Bet are still 36.5 (5/6), as are Boyles, though they only go 4/5.

I dont use SkyBet, so I will go with Wm Hill who go Evens under 36, which looks (to me) to be the best combo. 


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/montpellier-v-toulon/total-points

[tikay]

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Welcome back hector, you have been much missed.

Watching two Frenchie teams batter each other, oohhh......proper men though, none of this mamby-pamby football theatricals. Love it.

Hope we can get this one home, RU is one of our profitable sports, & this will be our 65th bet on RU.

We went for £25 @ Evens, Wm Hill, UNDER 36 points, Montpellier v Toulon.

ON

19 Jan 2013 - Montpellier v Toulon - Total Match Points

Under 36 @ EVS

Stake : £25.00


Estimated Returns : £50.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000246/F

[TightEnd]

Catching up on Gherkin's Bell bet

With 2 games to go

Bell 111
Cook 109
Pietersen 103
Root 75

all to play for

[biggle57]

Looking for some input as to a possible bet on the football today.  Notts county at home vs Sheff UTD, is there any edge in betting Notts Co as they havent played a full game since New years day, will they be well rested or rusty?  They are playing a Sheff utd team who have only picked up 1 point in their last 3 games.  They are a top team but lost 2-0 last week to a good yeovil side, however 3 games ago they lost to Hartlepool at home 3-2, and we all know how bad hartlepool are.  Having said that, Notts have only won twice in their last 10 league games, drawing 3 and losing 5.  They have a home form that reads W4 L6 which isn't great, Sheff utds away form reads W6 L2, which is decent.

So i guess my main question is, does the no football since New years day give Notts county any edge or not?

Notts Co are available at 20/11 for the win, Draw is 5/2 and Sheff Utd win is 17/10

Draw no bet on Notts Co is best prices at 37/40 on betvictor.

Have seen both these teams. Saw Donny beat them 2-0 at their place and they did not even trouble our keeper. Also pretty sure Sheff u thumped then 5-2 or something at theirs earlier in season (JPT?) when again they were in poor form. Notts Co have a terrible home record, so at those prices no bet but would favour Sheff u if i had to be pressed.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T. The final round of Heineken Cup takes place today. In France there is a top of the table clash where Toulon, who are already through, travel to Montpellier who can join them if they win. Toulon are the better team and concede very few points, and coupled with the forecast rain this looks like being a very tight and cagey game. If not backing dodgy French teams away from home is one maxim then watching 2 Frenchies batter each other is another. If they had a market for a sending off I would be backing it.

Suggest £24 under 36.5 points @ 5/6 with Paddy Power.

Specifically hector

Castres v Ulster under 35.5 10/11

Castres only scored 69 points in 5 games

Ulster virtually qualified, need a conservative win. Won't be throwing it around

Current weather is wet, with 22mph winds

Got to be unders.

After missing your bet last night - the first time eve, or almost so, I don't want to miss another, but.......

Bet365 will only allow me £5.50.

The alternatives are all around 1 point less.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/castres-v-ulster/total-points

So I've gone with Wm Hill again. You did not specify a stake, so I went for £24, which means we need one of the 2 RU Unders bets to get home to stand still, two to double our stake. Or neither to do the lot.....


£24 @ 5/6, Wm Hill, UNDER 35 points, Castres v ULster.

ON


19 Jan 2013 - Castres v Ulster - Total Match Points

Under 35 @ 5/6

Stake : £24.00


Estimated Returns : £44.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000247/F

[a.sparrow]

Thanks for the replies on the Notts co vs Sheff utd game, i think its a swerve from the sounds of it

[TightEnd]

tikay

Still time to volunteer..just down the road...

Click to see full-size image.

[redarmi]

Indeed - get yourself down there Tikay and whilst you are there ingratiate yourself with the owner who knows a thing or two about punting on the football....see if you can get him to be a Fred regular.

[tikay]

Indeed - get yourself down there Tikay and whilst you are there ingratiate yourself with the owner who knows a thing or two about punting on the football....see if you can get him to be a Fred regular.

Wow, I never knew he was a major punter, what an ice-cream I am, & I can't find a Wiki page for him.

I found this though.....


http://www.prosofgambling.com/matthew-benham-smart-betting-with-smartodds/


Some interesting articles on there by the look of it.

And this.....


http://www.smartodds.co.uk/About/Overview

[tikay]

Here's another gem from that site, Ed Murray.....


http://www.prosofgambling.com/category/sports-gamblers/

[bobby1]

Looking for some input as to a possible bet on the football today.  Notts county at home vs Sheff UTD, is there any edge in betting Notts Co as they havent played a full game since New years day, will they be well rested or rusty?  They are playing a Sheff utd team who have only picked up 1 point in their last 3 games.  They are a top team but lost 2-0 last week to a good yeovil side, however 3 games ago they lost to Hartlepool at home 3-2, and we all know how bad hartlepool are.  Having said that, Notts have only won twice in their last 10 league games, drawing 3 and losing 5.  They have a home form that reads W4 L6 which isn't great, Sheff utds away form reads W6 L2, which is decent.

So i guess my main question is, does the no football since New years day give Notts county any edge or not?

Notts Co are available at 20/11 for the win, Draw is 5/2 and Sheff Utd win is 17/10

Draw no bet on Notts Co is best prices at 37/40 on betvictor.

hi mate. I am a Sheff Utd fan so allow for that;o)

I have actually only had one bet today on the footy and it is Sheff Utd tho it is only small. County lost lots of players and Utd just seem better away from home(tho they have been awful in a good few games recently tbf) I just like backing good teams in games after a bad loss and Wilson has been rallying the troops this week after some changing room player arguing last week. I think all that his good and healthy after a loss and they have put up some good results away from home, only two defeats have been at MK Dons and Brentford, tho the Donny point  was a proper Dick Turpin. Recent form is poor and it could be that all the games are catching up with the squad a bit thin now.

Jamie Murphy is almost the same player as Miller up front tho he is stepping up from Motherwell. Danny Higginbothom has been excellent in the few games he has played tho we do still need some kind of creativity in midfield and the bench is looking a bit thin at the mo too.

It wasn't a big fancy tho.

[a.sparrow]

Looking for some input as to a possible bet on the football today.  Notts county at home vs Sheff UTD, is there any edge in betting Notts Co as they havent played a full game since New years day, will they be well rested or rusty?  They are playing a Sheff utd team who have only picked up 1 point in their last 3 games.  They are a top team but lost 2-0 last week to a good yeovil side, however 3 games ago they lost to Hartlepool at home 3-2, and we all know how bad hartlepool are.  Having said that, Notts have only won twice in their last 10 league games, drawing 3 and losing 5.  They have a home form that reads W4 L6 which isn't great, Sheff utds away form reads W6 L2, which is decent.

So i guess my main question is, does the no football since New years day give Notts county any edge or not?

Notts Co are available at 20/11 for the win, Draw is 5/2 and Sheff Utd win is 17/10

Draw no bet on Notts Co is best prices at 37/40 on betvictor.

hi mate. I am a Sheff Utd fan so allow for that;o)

I have actually only had one bet today on the footy and it is Sheff Utd tho it is only small. County lost lots of players and Utd just seem better away from home(tho they have been awful in a good few games recently tbf) I just like backing good teams in games after a bad loss and Wilson has been rallying the troops this week after some changing room player arguing last week. I think all that his good and healthy after a loss and they have put up some good results away from home, only two defeats have been at MK Dons and Brentford, tho the Donny point  was a proper Dick Turpin. Recent form is poor and it could be that all the games are catching up with the squad a bit thin now.

Jamie Murphy is almost the same player as Miller up front tho he is stepping up from Motherwell. Danny Higginbothom has been excellent in the few games he has played tho we do still need some kind of creativity in midfield and the bench is looking a bit thin at the mo too.

It wasn't a big fancy tho.

Sounds like a tricky game indeed, i'm actually leaning towards the fact that Notts haven't played since New year day is favourable to Sheff Utd.  A week off or a fixture lighter than the opposition might help towards a rested team, but i think such a long break could lead to them being abit rusty in a really competitive game.