Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0910, Sunday January 20th

A Profit of exactly £20 yesterday.

Probably best we don't give up the day job, but we sometimes go a bit silly on a Saturday, so for me, that was a satisfactory result.

Our little UFC bet went south after, as SB Nation reported, "Belfort adjusted Bispings line of vision", a rather pleasing euphanism for "knocked him senseless" I assume.

We had two Rugby Union "UNDERS" bets, aided by the poor weather, & both won head in chest. Well done hector (+£25) & Tighty (+£20). Our Rugby Union punting now exceeds a 10% ROI over a sample size of 60.   

Today, we have £94 invested in tonight's two NFL games, & of course the crucial game for us will be 49-ers @ Atlanta where we must win to keep the coup alive. We stand to win over £1,500 if the 49-ers win Superbowl, less of course any hedging or saving Keith might recommend. Or we could lose £250. We shall see.

Some tough football today when Chelsea host Arsenal, & Spurs host Man U. Hard to see where the value might lay there, though we may find some sub-market stuff.

[tikay]

In our Aussie Open Tennis bet, Federer has firmed slightly, & is now generally 5/1. This pretty much revolves around his planned semi-final against one A Murray.

Our bet on Suarez to score 20 Premiership goals is ticking along nicely, he now has 16. £40 @ 9/2 is the bet, thanks to Chip Prince.

We are on Doncaster to win League One (£20 @ 12/1), this is going nicely, too, they are joint leaders with Tranmere, these two having drawn 7 points clear of the field, & are now a 5/1 shot.

In CBB, Rylan is steady at around 4/11, we have £100 @ 7/4.

In the India England ODI series, our Pujara bet is in bad shape as he has yet to take the crease, but we are on Bell as top England batter @ 7/2, & he is currently 2/1. We managed to swerve Tredwell for Top English bowler at 6/1, he is currently a 4/9 shot. Whoops.

[Tal]

I think spurs are a better side without Adebayor and with an extra body in midfield/in the hole. AvB has worked out that the only way for us to beat united is to go for the throat, so I'm expecting chances for both sides today.

Most bookies are 6/4 or 13/8 over 4 goals. Bet 365 go 7/4 > 3.

Any thoughts?

[smashedagain]

Tony does it make you wonder who is following your thread? We had the darts guys come over to get suckered into the Dubai April fools with Mardel bet and I am intrigued by this Gherkin guy.

He makes 1 posts once in 2008 asking how Ed Giddins is getting on in the Gukpt and then his next 4 posts are all between Jan 7th and 10th of this year with what looked like some excellent knowledge.

Have you discussed the issue of this thread being monitored by bookie employees etc.  I noticed you had accounts closed already and although its not affecting your livelihood, there must be some risk to the experts posting. I keep seeing about Neil having to go off walking round all the shops in Maida Vale to get his bets on and did not know if this was tongue in cheek.

I was talking to someone recently in dtd and was telling him that my wife works in a bookies and immediately he wants to know if I can get sizeable bets on

[horseplayer]

reminds me of the old guy who played for our local division 2 side every thursday

he had been playing for at least 50 years and basically kept on playing until the bitter end . Towards the end he could not pot for toffee but knew every "angle" and safety in the book.

he always without fail played the young kiddie on the other side who was just starting out and was a decent player but was not prepared for a two hour frame

good memories

Haha, my dad let me start playing in our county league when I was about 11 years old and it took me a season or two to get accustomed to the old foxes

his favourite thing to do was when he potted a fairly simple red and had a fairly easy black on was to get the black safe as early as possible

" he wont get to far ahead now lads"

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Today Treviso play the Ospreys in a cold and wet Italy. The points expectation is the lowest I have ever seen for a match and I think the game will come down to a couple of penalty decisions by the ref. Neither side can go through so it is just pride to play for. The Ospreys are badly hit by injuries and have 3 players making their first Heineken cup start. In these circumstances I will side with the home team every time. Treviso are not the muppets that many still think as is shown by losing to Leicester by 1 point.

Suggest £20 Treviso @ 13/8 with Boylesport.

£5 the draw 20-1 Boylesport.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Today Treviso play the Ospreys in a cold and wet Italy. The points expectation is the lowest I have ever seen for a match and I think the game will come down to a couple of penalty decisions by the ref. Neither side can go through so it is just pride to play for. The Ospreys are badly hit by injuries and have 3 players making their first Heineken cup start. In these circumstances I will side with the home team every time. Treviso are not the muppets that many still think as is shown by losing to Leicester by 1 point.

Suggest £20 Treviso @ 13/8 with Boylesport.

£5 the draw 20-1 Boylesport.

Thanks hector, this is for three Rugby Union winners in a row, so good luck us.

We are on exactly as specified.

We have £20 @ 13/8, Boylesports, Treviso to beat Ospreys.

We have £5 @ 20/1, Boylewsports, Treviso v Ospreys to end in a draw.

ON

20 Jan 2013 10:46  66/64  Benetton Treviso vs. Ospreys - Match Betting  Benetton Treviso   Single  13/8  20.00   Open  Pending 



20 Jan 2013 10:47  67/65  Benetton Treviso vs. Ospreys - Match Betting  Draw   Single  20/1  5.00   Open  Pending   
 

[bookiebasher]

Liverpool are up to 7th in the league, ok im biased as a fan but i think they are value for a top 6 spot.

VC have them at 6/4, while they are evs at PP and odds on at BF.

To finish in the top 6 they will need to move above Arsenal or Everton, next week Liverpool are away to Arsenal.

Opinions.

VC made a rick on the Leics price to be promoted as welll. 5-4 last night when generally 8-13.
There is money to be made when they fail to update certain markets but over time it might be
an account buster.
The bookies have so many markets to update the odd one or two are going to slip through and the
price will not last long. The secret is trying to get an amount on which wont get the bet referred to a
trader. I try for a stake to win just under £500 then go for a reload. Its a bit hit and miss because
obviously I dont know what each individual bookies limits/settings are.

But I wouldn't be surprised if one or two on here know more about this than me

[TightEnd]

Leicester v Toulouse this afternoon

Banzai

The pitch has been protected by a big tent all week, with hot air blown under it



However the pitch has to be clear for 1.30pm, and it is snowing hard and forecast to do so most of the day

By kick off the pitch will be covered

Soon into the match it will cut up

Points will be at a premium

It's going to be tight and tense independent of the weather, as the winner makes the Heineken quarters, the loser is out


The "Unders" price has been adjusted lower to 32.5/33.5 so the scope for that bet is reduced.

As I expect this to be a score either way, and a forward battle

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/highest-scoring-half

£5 Paddy Power: Highest scoring Half: Draw at 17-1

Scores of 12-12,15-15,18-15 etc very possible here

£5 Paddy Power: Draw at 20-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/winner

[tikay]

Tony does it make you wonder who is following your thread? We had the darts guys come over to get suckered into the Dubai April fools with Mardel bet and I am intrigued by this Gherkin guy.

He makes 1 posts once in 2008 asking how Ed Giddins is getting on in the Gukpt and then his next 4 posts are all between Jan 7th and 10th of this year with what looked like some excellent knowledge.

Have you discussed the issue of this thread being monitored by bookie employees etc.  I noticed you had accounts closed already and although its not affecting your livelihood, there must be some risk to the experts posting. I keep seeing about Neil having to go off walking round all the shops in Maida Vale to get his bets on and did not know if this was tongue in cheek.

I was talking to someone recently in dtd and was telling him that my wife works in a bookies and immediately he wants to know if I can get sizeable bets on

Lots of non-blondes follow this thread, not all of them kindly disposed to blonde or myself. What would you suggest we do? They are perfectly entitled to. Some eventually join, others just lurk. It will always be so, as long as we are a free & open Forum, & I don't think the Forum should become password-protected simply due to a single thread, that would be the tail wagging the dog.

You mention gherkhin's Posting Profile, that is not really a matter for pubic discussion, perhaps you may consider having future such convos by PM. I reply to all PM's. The Mods are aware of all unusual Posting patterns. The chap in question has done nothing wrong & is on blonde most days, as recently as Friday. I know exactly what you are alluding to, probably more than you realise, but I don't think it is up for open discussion.

Neil is not joking when he says he has to walk round to betting shops to get on, nor is he alone, I know several regular contributors to Fred who are in the same boat, or who have to use convoluted means to get a bet on. Sensibly, they don't divulge these here. This is nothing to do with blonde, it is a fact of life, regular bookies, with very few exceptions (Pinnacle etc) are not keen to accommodate sharps.

A sense of perspective is needed here. The top 5 or 6 bookies each field hundreds of thousands of bets per day, and a dozen blonde-sourced bets don't make a dot of difference.  Some markets are very thin indeed, particularly sub-markets, & if 8 or 10 folks all make the same bet at the same time, it will always affect their price, but that is not a blonde thing, it is just how those Markets work. 

[tikay]

Leicester v Toulouse this afternoon

Banzai

The pitch has been protected by a big tent all week, with hot air blown under it



However the pitch has to be clear for 1.30pm, and it is snowing hard and forecast to do so most of the day

By kick off the pitch will be covered

Soon into the match it will cut up

Points will be at a premium

It's going to be tight and tense independent of the weather, as the winner makes the Heineken quarters, the loser is out


The "Unders" price has been adjusted lower to 32.5/33.5 so the scope for that bet is reduced.

As I expect this to be a score either way, and a forward battle

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/highest-scoring-half

£5 Paddy Power: Highest scoring Half: Draw at 17-1

Scores of 12-12,15-15,18-15 etc very possible here

£5 Paddy Power: Draw at 20-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/winner

Blimey, what an unusual bet that is!

Still smarting from missing your Leicester - 'Boro coup on Friday, I am on my way......

[Tal]

I think spurs are a better side without Adebayor and with an extra body in midfield/in the hole. AvB has worked out that the only way for us to beat united is to go for the throat, so I'm expecting chances for both sides today.

Most bookies are 6/4 or 13/8 over 4 goals. Bet 365 go 7/4 > 3.

Any thoughts?

No love?

[tikay]

Leicester v Toulouse this afternoon

Banzai

The pitch has been protected by a big tent all week, with hot air blown under it



However the pitch has to be clear for 1.30pm, and it is snowing hard and forecast to do so most of the day

By kick off the pitch will be covered

Soon into the match it will cut up

Points will be at a premium

It's going to be tight and tense independent of the weather, as the winner makes the Heineken quarters, the loser is out


The "Unders" price has been adjusted lower to 32.5/33.5 so the scope for that bet is reduced.

As I expect this to be a score either way, and a forward battle

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/highest-scoring-half

£5 Paddy Power: Highest scoring Half: Draw at 17-1

Scores of 12-12,15-15,18-15 etc very possible here

£5 Paddy Power: Draw at 20-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/winner

Thanks Rich.

Proper Banzai that!

We are on, as directed.

£5 @ 20/1, Paddy Power, Match to end in a draw.

£5 @ 17/1, Paddy Power, Highest Scoring half = tie.

ON



20/01/2013 Single To Win Draw @ 20/1
Match Betting
Leicester v Toulouse Pending £5.00   

20/01/2013 Single To Win Tie @ 17/1
Highest Scoring Half
Leicester v Toulouse Pending £5.00   


 

[tikay]

I think spurs are a better side without Adebayor and with an extra body in midfield/in the hole. AvB has worked out that the only way for us to beat united is to go for the throat, so I'm expecting chances for both sides today.

Most bookies are 6/4 or 13/8 over 4 goals. Bet 365 go 7/4 > 3.

Any thoughts?

No love?

We ALL love you Tal, or as Ralph calls you, 5pur2 Bloke.

I would need input from wiser counsel before getting on though.

My own (gut) reaction is that the price looks a bit tight, especially if we add oin that bad weather & pitches tends to result in lower scores.

If the footie experts like it, though, we will indulge.

Is Gareth Daley playing today?

[TightEnd]

13/8 ewcastle bottom 6

this crept onto the thread

Not sure where the bet can be found, or if the price is still on


but its an interesting price isn't it?