Tips for Tikay

[LeedsRhodesy]

Rylan wins cbb

[a.sparrow]

Rylan wins cbb

Good work chompy!

[bobby1]

What would it take for Lewis to get the MVP?

Obv Ravens (not the Pats...) to win, but 1.5 sacks? An interception? Or is it a case of nothing outstanding from anyone else?

well it is similar to the Gonzalez bet really, he is a legendary inspirational player that is highly respected and retires after the game and that will feature heavily in the coverage both pre and during the game. He needs to get plenty of tackles in tho to have a good game, an Int or sacks would obv be huge. Crabtree and say Torrey Smith for example are decent runners in that bet too, the thing with Smith is he tends to be a bit boom or bust. He caught three passes in the Denver game for 90 odd yards and 2 td's, obv if he does that in the SB then it means Flacco is likely to have thrown the two td's to him but Flacco just isn't that highly rated( tho he has been fantastic of late). I'm tempted to lay Flacco in the MVP list because I can see Lewis getting an emotional vote if he does ok and Balti do a win, and certainly Baltimore have to win for Flacco to win the MVP anyway.

The good thing about it is the two players in the list after the main qb's and rb's play for different teams so we have a chance with the most likely players outside the qb and rb whoever wins but obv the qb's and rb's are still more likely to get the award.

[Tal]

Who picks the Superbowl MVP?

As it's an american sport, I'm thinking network or sponsor..?

[tikay]

Who picks the Superbowl MVP?

As it's an american sport, I'm thinking network or sponsor..?

wiki to the rescue........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_Most_Valuable_Player_Award


The winner is chosen by a fan vote during the game and by a panel of 16 American football writers and broadcasters who vote after the game. The media panel's ballots count for 80 percent of the vote tally, while the viewers' ballots make up the other 20 percent.[1] The game's viewing audience can vote on the Internet or by using cellular phones;

[Tal]

Ah! So it is the network and the sponsors then, really? 80% is a fairly large slice of the pie.

[bobby1]

That's it, interestingly Lewis won the MVP the last time Baltimore won the Superbowl, tho it was a low scoring non spectacular game.

[Snowball]

Roughly what would you price this Bobby?It's back to 15/2 again.

[JaffaCake]

Good work on CBB chomps

[The Camel]

Was hoping Aldon Smith would be treble figures to win the MVP.

Really like his matchup v Bryant Mckinnie.

3 sacks in a low scoring game could easily win it.

Sadly 66/1 best.

[bobby1]

Roughly what would you price this Bobby?It's back to 15/2 again.

ffs sake I typed out some math but muffed the sending and I can't be arsed to type it all again but basically if you add the top price the 2 qbs are and the 2 main rbs then it comes to about 2/9 those positions 82%. It's not perfect tho as there are other qb and rb that could come in and get it but they would all be much bigger prices than the previous player if for example Kap got injured on the first play and Alex Smith came in, so v unlikely. That is with a lot of % in too, if you convert it down to 100% at best prices then it is just around 1/3


If you roughly add the total % up of the non qbs and rbs in the list up to the treble figure players( the ones above are probably much bigger than they are quoted but I have added a bit in) you get about 29 %, if you convert that down to 100% again you get just over 3/1, which is good.



so it would be roughly 1/3 qb and rb and 3/1 not.

What I think PP have done is their 4 main qb and rb % comes to over 101% as they are a shorter price all 4 than is available, they have then just knocked a bit off to get to 1/25 and then bet the other side of that, when at top price those four there is about 19% difference in the prices.


cheers

[bobby1]

I just added the rb to the others list to make it qb over the field and at 100% made it 4/5 ish qb and 5/4 ish others at the top prices.

At PP prices it makes it around 4/9 qb and 9/4 other at 100% and they are betting it 4/11 and 15/8 with their own % added to it in the match bet QB v any other position.

[Snowball]

Thanks, great insight.

[bobby1]

having thought about the MVP more closely today it occurred  to me that rb's are possibly now much less likely to win the award than previously given the new RB by committee approach most teams adopt and these two teams certainly have back up RB's that will eat into each others stats. That prob means that the QB's are more likely to get the MVP but it also means that other positions are more likely than previous years too.

I remember backing fast Willie Parker to be the MVP the year that Pittsburgh won it at about 16/1 and I believe he had a rushing TD in the game that was then/and might still be the longest rushing TD in the Superbowl and he still lost out to Hines Ward who caught a long TD pass on a trick play pass from fellow WR Randle El.

So I had a look and in the last 15 years only 1 rb has won the MVP, 9 qb's  won and 5 others( 3 wr, 1 safety and 1 linebacker) and even further back when the game was far more balanced the rb's still didn't win many. So it could be that the rb's are taking up too much % in the lists and the QB's not enough which has to be considered too. Either way it  couldn't be 17/2 other and it still can't be 15/2 other.

[bobby1]

Thanks, great insight.

np mate.