Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Second bet I like this weekend would be Watford at forest.  You can back watford at 2/1 right now, or the draw no bet at 23/20.  Forest aren't on a great run right now, Watford in great form.  Seems to be quite a big price to me.  I can add stats and form later but on my phone right now and am abit presses for time.

Not forgotten this Mr Sparrow, I'll sort the rest of the football stuff in the morning.

As you may have seen, Bradford & Wycombe is off.

Sorry got abit distracted, yeah i saw the bradford v wycombe game is postponed unfortunately.  I think that was a good bet.

Some more to add to the watford bet, I think the price on them is generous, for both the win and the draw no bet. Watford are in great form, especially Vydra who is scoring plenty of goals (8 in his last 4 starts) and have just dispatched huddersfield 4-0.  They play very well away from home, and are the leagues top scorers away from home. Forest aren't a bad side, they also have a very decent striker in Billy Sharpe, and have just signed Henderson from Millwall.  They also have a new manager in Alex Mcleish, i dont rate him that highly though.

Bookies have obviously included recent form etc into the price, so no real need to go into that.  I think watford have the better squad, better manager, and they are in better form than forest.  Added to that they have just had a nice 4 day break in Spain for a training camp.  I personally think this will have refreshed them, however there can be arguements for that break to have given them a nice taste of some sunshine in this cold spell we are currently under, and they may not feel like coming out and playing in the cold tomorrow. 

Other than the two bets above, i do think there will be goals in this game and over 2.5 at 4/5 isn't a terrible price, especially as of the last 6 games for each side (12 games each) 11 have gone over 2.5 and only one has gone under, being a 1-1 draw.

I don't know if fred would like to bet any of the three bets that I think are ok, so i'd like some opinions if possible.

Thanks Mr Sparrow.

Be good to get you on the ledger, & I like those bets.

I've decided to go Route Nit of the three options you suggest, Over 2.5 Goals, even better, Bet365 allowed me £20, probably a bad sign......

We have £20 @ 4/5, Bet365, Forest v Watford OVER 2.5 Goals.

ON

Over  2.5  Nottm Forest v Watford
Total Goals  26/01/2013  4/5  None  To Run
Stake 20.00 To Return  36.00   

[tikay]

I def think 2/9 bpg is value.

Was 1/5 last night before the 2 non runners, is 1.21 on betfair-comish.

Just because the price isn't huge doesn't mean it's not value.

Think doobs mentioned £45 and that seems about right, nick a tenner,maybe a little more.

I'm still not sure if Doobs was serious, but we'll get on if he was, though I'm not desperate to bet.

Think it seems to be on the drift though, so maybe some 1/4 will appear soon, though 2/9 BPG is the same thing I suppose.

Pads also refund all bets on 2 races today so if you do do it, best to do so with them, also more chance it goes 1/5 than 1/4 imo.

Pretty sure he was serious, probs sounded light hearted due to the 'shame' of tipping a 2/9 shot.

But like I say value is value.

This.  You beat Betfair and get best price guaranteed.  Hence must be value.  I have backed it, but I can see why thread doesn't like backin at 2/9.

Gotcha Doobsy, thank you.

Not averse to odds-on, & anyway, you have Auto-Bet status.

We have £45 @ 2/9, Paddy Power, Sprinter Sacre, 13.50 Prestbury Park.

ON


CHELTENHAM 13:50 VICTOR CHANDLER CHASE (GRADE 1) 2m 110y
26-01-2013 13:50
Win or E/W
Sprinter Sacre @ 2/9 (GP)
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Sprinter Sacre @ 2/9
1 line at £45.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £45.00
Potential returns: £55.00
No: O/23146337/0000250

 

[Doobs]

I def think 2/9 bpg is value.

Was 1/5 last night before the 2 non runners, is 1.21 on betfair-comish.

Just because the price isn't huge doesn't mean it's not value.

Think doobs mentioned £45 and that seems about right, nick a tenner,maybe a little more.

I'm still not sure if Doobs was serious, but we'll get on if he was, though I'm not desperate to bet.

Think it seems to be on the drift though, so maybe some 1/4 will appear soon, though 2/9 BPG is the same thing I suppose.

Pads also refund all bets on 2 races today so if you do do it, best to do so with them, also more chance it goes 1/5 than 1/4 imo.

Pretty sure he was serious, probs sounded light hearted due to the 'shame' of tipping a 2/9 shot.

But like I say value is value.

This.  You beat Betfair and get best price guaranteed.  Hence must be value.  I have backed it, but I can see why thread doesn't like backin at 2/9.

Gotcha Doobsy, thank you.

Not averse to odds-on, & anyway, you have Auto-Bet status.

We have £45 @ 2/9, Paddy Power, Sprinter Sacre, 13.50 Prestbury Park.

ON


CHELTENHAM 13:50 VICTOR CHANDLER CHASE (GRADE 1) 2m 110y
26-01-2013 13:50
Win or E/W
Sprinter Sacre @ 2/9 (GP)
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Sprinter Sacre @ 2/9
1 line at £45.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £45.00
Potential returns: £55.00
No: O/23146337/0000250

 

Sorry for the confusion and delay,  original smiley was because Tal had asked about opposing it.  Am on a train, apologies didn't get the type or number

[edgascoigne]

Disappointing outcome. Traded 1/8 in-running....Other thing got there without the rail and didn't exactly ping the last....hmm.

Whether Irish Saint will now go for the Triumph I'm not sure, would probably hope he doesn't as it's then cash back (as a free bet).

[horseplayer]

i have spent a fair amount of time on the norwich v luton game today

Norwich City FC ‏@NorwichCityFC
The gaffer has already said Dec Rudd and Andrew Surman will start today, but who else would you like to see in action for #NCFC v Luton?

For some reason surman is priced a standout 14-1, 11-2 and 33-1 in the goalscorer markets

Reasoning

Has 8 goals in 45 games for Norwich which is a fair strike rate he also has 4 goals in 6 career fa cup appearances (probably not that relevant)

He has had a longish injury so may not play the whole game which is a slight negative

The prices say Norwich should win the game easily enough i dont happen to think they are in great form but it is a surprise to see a starting midfielder at this price especially one who does score fairly frequently.

The majority of bookies have him 3-1/4-1 anytime which is probably correct

Suggest

£3 first scorer 14-1 coral

£ 5 anytime scorer 11-2 coral

£2 2 or more scorer 33-1 coral

I have a further bet for the game but want confirmed team news first

[tikay]

i have spent a fair amount of time on the norwich v luton game today

Norwich City FC ‏@NorwichCityFC
The gaffer has already said Dec Rudd and Andrew Surman will start today, but who else would you like to see in action for #NCFC v Luton?

For some reason surman is priced a standout 14-1, 11-2 and 33-1 in the goalscorer markets

Reasoning

Has 8 goals in 45 games for Norwich which is a fair strike rate he also has 4 goals in 6 career fa cup appearances (probably not that relevant)

He has had a longish injury so may not play the whole game which is a slight negative

The prices say Norwich should win the game easily enough i dont happen to think they are in great form but it is a surprise to see a starting midfielder at this price especially one who does score fairly frequently.

The majority of bookies have him 3-1/4-1 anytime which is probably correct

Suggest

£3 first scorer 14-1 coral

£ 5 anytime scorer 11-2 coral

£2 2 or more scorer 33-1 coral

I have a further bet for the game but want confirmed team news first

Thanks horsey.

You do come up with some niche stuff!

We are call safely on, as directed, with Corals.

£3 first scorer 14-1 coral

£ 5 anytime scorer 11-2 coral

£2 2 or more scorer 33-1 coral





ON

ID:O/1597594/0000038

Andrew Surman14/1Norwich v Luton - 26/01/2013
Stake £3.00
Estimated Return:£45.00
SingleID:O/1597594/0000039

Andrew Surman11/2Norwich v Luton - 26/01/2013
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£32.50
SingleID:O/1597594/0000040

Andrew Surman33/1Norwich v Luton - 26/01/2013
Stake £2.00
Estimated Return:£68.00
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £145.5

[Tal]

Here we go then. Is this Fred's shortest price?

[Tal]

Well that is officially ridiculous.

Would have been a brilliant forecast

[horseplayer]

s sacre apart a quite awful group of 2 milers imo

well done doobs

[tikay]

Here we go then. Is this Fred's shortest price?

Shortest we have bet, or that I recall, though we have had shorter priced winners I think.

[tikay]

Yup, well done Doobs.

£10 in the kitty, so we won't be without a win today.

Every little helps.

Very impressive, too, he can only beat those who opposed him, but he did it in grand style, & Barry was being easy on him on that ground.

[tikay]

BlSq go:

Sprinter Sacre to win by less than 12 lengths: 5/4
Sprinter Sacre to win by 12 lengths or more: 5/4

14 lengths was the outcome.

[horseplayer]

further bet

Harry Kane 85-40 score anytime suggest £12

Harry Kane 8-1 first scorer  suggest £5

Harry Kane 14-1 2 or more suggest £3

starts upfront confirmed for norwich

all with vcbet all way out of line

[Tal]

further bet

Harry Kane 85-40 score anytime suggest £12

Harry Kane 8-1 first scorer  suggest £5

Harry Kane 14-1 2 or more suggest £3

starts upfront confirmed for norwich

all with vcbet all way out of line

Has always looked like he should be better than he is (he's a spurs boy for those who weren't aware)

[horseplayer]

further bet

Harry Kane 85-40 score anytime suggest £12

Harry Kane 8-1 first scorer  suggest £5

Harry Kane 14-1 2 or more suggest £3

starts upfront confirmed for norwich

all with vcbet all way out of line

Has always looked like he should be better than he is (he's a spurs boy for those who weren't aware)

saw him a lot for milwall last season

championship is his level got loads of ability very weak but looks the sort who could mature late

anyway it is nothing to do with whether he is any good or not all the prices are to big for a premier league striker at home to a conference side