Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

Been offline since moving house on Friday and over 25 pages to catch up on!!!

No Internet is extremely painful, can't even follow any sport and the only upside is that I have managed to read a couple of books in 2 days

@Tal.  Don't worry about Adz, his mask slips elsewhere and all he does is cry about the ineptitude of  Wenger/Arsenal 

[BigAdz]

Sales of Peter and Jane books shot up in Dorchester eh mate?!

[BigAdz]

Having spent the day watching Festival clues, I have a recommend for Fred

Even with my Tidal Bay Fan Club hat on I must say that if my boy is being aimed at the WH(which I think is lunacy, but Ruby rules the roost) I have watched again Flemenstar from all angles and have to suggest we back him for the Gold Cup with Victor(NRFB) before the Irish Hennesey.

Nothing jumped or travelled better than Flem to the final fence, and for his first attempt at 3m and considering the company and the ground I must now admit the post race reaction seems a little harsh as he was beaten less than a length. All through the race his jockey looked unsure whether to kick on or not, but with doubts about his stamina, he held onto a horse that normally front runs.

The Hennesey may well see more attacking tactics and he could run away with it, thus pushing him to favourite I expect, especially with BW missing a chance to remind us how good he is.

If Flem doesnt stay he has two other options at the festival, Ryanair and QM, so we will likely get our free stake.

At 12-1 with VC he is also the biggest price in the village.

Recommend £25 win VC @12-1

the vc bets are always ok with the refunds

as i posted in the post race madness of the lexus i thought flemenstar was a fair price then and i had backed him small because i felt the market had overacted

the fact pricewise has now got involved 12-1 does not have a lot of margin to me

just my view

What price will he be if he wins Henessey?

probably 7-1 to 9-1 depending on how he wins

betfair there is plenty of 17-1 for the gold cup

hit high 30's after the apparent non staying effort last time

i do not hate the bet as i want the horse to win the gold cup i just do not think there is a lot of juice at the price of 12-1

I am not sure even if he wins he can win GC tbh, but as a hype horse, I see a much shorter price if he wins Henessey. Effectively if he beats the same horses this time he must overtake SDC at least in the market, who is at currently.

As I am sticking it up as a value selection, and still feel TB wins if runs, I have no probs in dropping the recommend.

[tikay]

Tom (TL900) gave us an NBA bet tonight, which I'm watching on Sky. (Bet not going too well at present).

I just noticed that the Lakers have a kid called "Meta World Peace".

Quite a character too, it seems.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metta_World_Peace

I'm still ghetto

[TL900]

Was that posted when they were down 9?

Very happy with being infront. Westbrook only scored 1 bucket all half and Durant hasn't been playing that well (still has 18pts tbf). Those 2 heat up in the 2nd half and we should be rockin. Lakers are also shooting 45% from 3pt land which is wayyyyyyy above EV whereas Thunder are shooting 11%. Very very happy with our position in this game.

Meta World Peace is mental lol. Definitely a "character"

[tikay]

Was that posted when they were down 9?

Very happy with being infront. Westbrook only scored 1 bucket all half and Durant hasn't been playing that well (still has 18pts tbf). Those 2 heat up in the 2nd half and we should be rockin. Lakers are also shooting 45% from 3pt land which is wayyyyyyy above EV whereas Thunder are shooting 11%. Very very happy with our position in this game.

Meta World Peace is mental lol. Definitely a "character"

Love it.

I'm still ghetto

He earns a fortune, too, $33 million over 4 years. Wowzer.

Not much ghetto cred with that wage packet, mind.

[Bad Beat]

 Good spot on the Bluesq offer Tal.

 The 1st TD market in average NFL games tends to be set at around about 140% if you take the best prices with the firms. About four hours before the match a guy always copies the prices going slightly under best some (on Betfair). He usually lays nothing. With three hours to go a second guy puts up some proper size to about 120% and then a robot instantly puts £2 in frint on every player. A guy who doesn't understand how favourites offer less margin to the fixed-odds firms than outsiders, then puts the players under 16/1 up to some size at bigger prices. All this is happening with less than £1000 matched and the overound is no 112%. Another guy now puts a lay of the whole field at the best price available to lose about £3,000 at 112%. By the time of kick-off £5000-£6000 is matched every single time.

 Knowing all that it is highly unlikely that you could beat Betfair taking a price from the bookies on 1st TD scorer.

 Bluesq are 10/1 which is their only best price (joint best). It's about 20% that the offer will be triggered. is very high profile and is likely to be popular on the night with the wagons.

 The market on Super Bowl night has a very high ratio of people backing one or two players that they fancy (generally ice-creams) to people laying (generally pros and Betunfair's own robot). I think could easily be 9.0 on the off.

 I would not put you off backing and possibly looking to lay some on BF on the off at below 10/1, while having the chance of hitting the offer.

 With the difference in the ratio of pro/non-pro I would expect the BF market to offer better value than normal to layers on Sunday.

[TL900]

Would you believe he is only the 5th highest paid player on the Lakers alone?

Basketball players are paid just an absurd amount of money. Kobe earns nearly 4x what MWP does.

[tikay]

Good spot on the Bluesq offer Tal.

 The 1st TD market in average NFL games tends to be set at around about 140% if you take the best prices with the firms. About four hours before the match a guy always copies the prices going slightly under best some (on Betfair). He usually lays nothing. With three hours to go a second guy puts up some proper size to about 120% and then a robot instantly puts £2 in frint on every player. A guy who doesn't understand how favourites offer less margin to the fixed-odds firms than outsiders, then puts the players under 16/1 up to some size at bigger prices. All this is happening with less than £1000 matched and the overound is no 112%. Another guy now puts a lay of the whole field at the best price available to lose about £3,000 at 112%. By the time of kick-off £5000-£6000 is matched every single time.

 Knowing all that it is highly unlikely that you could beat Betfair taking a price from the bookies on 1st TD scorer.

 Bluesq are 10/1 which is their only best price (joint best). It's about 20% that the offer will be triggered. is very high profile and is likely to be popular on the night with the wagons.

 The market on Super Bowl night has a very high ratio of people backing one or two players that they fancy (generally ice-creams) to people laying (generally pros and Betunfair's own robot). I think could easily be 9.0 on the off.

 I would not put you off backing and possibly looking to lay some on BF on the off at below 10/1, while having the chance of hitting the offer.

 With the difference in the ratio of pro/non-pro I would expect the BF market to offer better value than normal to layers on Sunday.

Love reading that sort of stUff. The more the better. Incred.

[tikay]

Would you believe he is only the 5th highest paid player on the Lakers alone?

Basketball players are paid just an absurd amount of money. Kobe earns nearly 4x what MWP does.

Bloody hell. All comes from TV money, presumably?

[Bad Beat]

 Just a note for anyone in Camden or Hampstead.

 Samvo are one of the biggest bet-brokers in the world. They may be useful to some people on the thread. They are great if you do lots of Asian Handicaps. Basically they can get you large size with a massive choice of prices and they charge a small commision - they are looking for high volume punters and you save yourself a lot of hassle (transferring money, checking many prices, credit risk is just with one firm etc).

 They have recently ventured into fixed-odds on more traditional UK sports. The minimum bet is £1000 and it seems they are better getting on in some than others. They lay you sometimes if they have other punters betting other selections in the event, and you pay commission.

If anyone is interested in an account then let me know by PM as I can get commission for reccommending and you need someone to vouch for you.

 Anyway they have two betting shops in North London that are offering non-runner no-bet all races at Cheltenham. It's not a free bet and unlike VC ,(who are a joke), they do lay a bet.

[horseplayer]

bilbao beat a madrid 3-0

Athletic, Athletic, Athletic eup!

[Tal]

Good spot on the Bluesq offer Tal.

 The 1st TD market in average NFL games tends to be set at around about 140% if you take the best prices with the firms. About four hours before the match a guy always copies the prices going slightly under best some (on Betfair). He usually lays nothing. With three hours to go a second guy puts up some proper size to about 120% and then a robot instantly puts £2 in frint on every player. A guy who doesn't understand how favourites offer less margin to the fixed-odds firms than outsiders, then puts the players under 16/1 up to some size at bigger prices. All this is happening with less than £1000 matched and the overound is no 112%. Another guy now puts a lay of the whole field at the best price available to lose about £3,000 at 112%. By the time of kick-off £5000-£6000 is matched every single time.

 Knowing all that it is highly unlikely that you could beat Betfair taking a price from the bookies on 1st TD scorer.

 Bluesq are 10/1 which is their only best price (joint best). It's about 20% that the offer will be triggered. is very high profile and is likely to be popular on the night with the wagons.

 The market on Super Bowl night has a very high ratio of people backing one or two players that they fancy (generally ice-creams) to people laying (generally pros and Betunfair's own robot). I think could easily be 9.0 on the off.

 I would not put you off backing and possibly looking to lay some on BF on the off at below 10/1, while having the chance of hitting the offer.

 With the difference in the ratio of pro/non-pro I would expect the BF market to offer better value than normal to layers on Sunday.

Love reading that sort of stUff. The more the better. Incred.

Amazing insight, Neil. Thanks enormously.

Hope Oz is treating you well.

[Tal]

Ron Artest seemed to find controversies Eric Cantona would wince at. Mehta World Peace of course is a paragon of virtue...

Chad Johnson is the only sportsman of that level of notoriety I can immediately think of who changed his name (to Chad Ochocinco, because his shirt number at the Cincinnati Bengals was 85). He has some pretty bonkers moments in him.

Just remembered there was a boxer once, fifty years ago, who changed his name, although that at least was for religious reasons. Can't remember what happened to him...

[a.sparrow]

Looking at upcoming fixtures and see watford are playing mid week at bottom of the table Bristol city.  Watford are in red hot form right now, and although Bristol city got a result today I think a lot of people will be backing watford at 6/5.  I'd expect the price to fall a bit when it comes to game time. Watford are the leagues top away scorers, Bristol city are the have the leagues worst defence.

I backed watford today so obviously have a soft spot for them, fred didn't go for that bet though but went for the over 2.5 goals choice.  I think it's a little short here at 4/6 maybe, well not short but at that price it doesn't tickle my fancy.

Watford goals over 1.5 @ 5/6 I like @ bet365
Watford win at 6/5 I like @paddy power
Watford to score in both halves I like abit more at 15/8 @paddy power

Thoughts from blondes as to as to which bet if any suits fred are more than welcome.

Some decent bets there.

over 2.5 goals is 4/5 and I think that is value too, considering Watford are scoring for fun, bang in form and Bristol City can not keep a clean sheet. It is probably a max for me on Tuesday.

Price update on this, watford over 1.5 goals is now evens at corals.

watford to score in both halves bluesquare go 12/5.

Am i missing something here or are they very good value?