Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Welsh Open Snooker

This tournament is really opening up

An Indian player beat Shaun Murphy in the last 32, Doherty beat Higgins last night

There is no particular value in the three likely winners at this stage: Robertson, Selby and Trump all priced at between 9/2 to 6/1 with the last 16 starting later

the draw is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Welsh_Open_%28snooker%29#Main_draw

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/welsh-open/winner


I think there is one of the remaining Last 32 matches where there is an opportunity

Robert Milkins plays Mark Williams

We were all commenting in the Masters that Williams' game is a shadow of what it was. He's less motivated to practice these days.

Milkins is ranked just outside the top 20. He's reached a PTC semi this season, three PTC quarters and a QF in the Wuxi Classic, one of the ranked events. He's beaten Trump in the Wuxi

I'm not claiming eyeball knowledge of Milkins recent play, though I have seen him at the the Crucible. I did see Williams play at the Masters, and he was poor and disinterested.

In essence this is an even money game, of players similar in current standard (the rankings overstate Williams, as they still include historic results, he drops as they go out of the calculation)

Its best of 7, so that increases the likelihood of betting upsets too, as we've seen with Murphy and Higgins amongst others

In this essentially pick-em game you can get 13/8 Milkins

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/robert-milkins-v-mark-williams/winner

I don't think Williams is 1/2 against many if any top 32 players, with the short format randomising the results to an extent too


Notes

http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?template=16&season=2012

Provisionally Williams down to 15, Milkins up to 11 (there appear to be multiple provisional lists, but this was the most striking!)

Recommend £25 Milkins to beat Mark Williams

The match is at 7pm on BBC Red button or Eurosport 1

2.74 in Betfair.

[millidonk]

Anyone like Man U tonight? I love their price.

I like them +1 on the handicaps quite a lot but I have misjudged the market on it pretty badly.  I just think the market is underrating United and overrating Madrid a bit.  Madrid are some way behind Barca this season in Spain but I cant say I am massively confident that my view is the right one tbh.

Well I was of the same thinking, 5/4 Man U +1 is just too big against anyone imo. 4/1 Man U against anyone is also rather large. Real not setting the world on fire at all, Fergie wants to win CL so bad, pressure off in the EPL. Think I shall be putting my money where my mouth is.

[redarmi]

Much better to bet the on the Asian handicaps +1 around evens as you get your money back if they lose by a goal which is a fairly big runner.

[BigAdz]

Would like to compliments Ralph's golf bet myself, with a much shorter selection in the African Open

When watching the first leg of my golf double come in last weekend(cough), I noticed Jaco Van Zyl playing some quite eyecatching stuff. Now is the time of year to catch him as he doesnt travel well, and I knew he finished 4th in this the last 2 years.

Expecting a stronger field I thought he would be priced as he is 12-14s, but with no Schwartzel/Sterne/Oustheizen etc or anyone from the Top 50, i would have made him 8-10s.

When playing well he is a birdie machine and after some poor form in Dubai, once back on home turf he seemed to be finding his feet last week, and I really think he will continue that this week in an exceptionally weak field.

Recommend £10 ew at 14s PP Jaco Van Zyl

[tikay]

Welsh Open Snooker

This tournament is really opening up

An Indian player beat Shaun Murphy in the last 32, Doherty beat Higgins last night

There is no particular value in the three likely winners at this stage: Robertson, Selby and Trump all priced at between 9/2 to 6/1 with the last 16 starting later

the draw is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Welsh_Open_%28snooker%29#Main_draw

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/welsh-open/winner


I think there is one of the remaining Last 32 matches where there is an opportunity

Robert Milkins plays Mark Williams

We were all commenting in the Masters that Williams' game is a shadow of what it was. He's less motivated to practice these days.

Milkins is ranked just outside the top 20. He's reached a PTC semi this season, three PTC quarters and a QF in the Wuxi Classic, one of the ranked events. He's beaten Trump in the Wuxi

I'm not claiming eyeball knowledge of Milkins recent play, though I have seen him at the the Crucible. I did see Williams play at the Masters, and he was poor and disinterested.

In essence this is an even money game, of players similar in current standard (the rankings overstate Williams, as they still include historic results, he drops as they go out of the calculation)

Its best of 7, so that increases the likelihood of betting upsets too, as we've seen with Murphy and Higgins amongst others

In this essentially pick-em game you can get 13/8 Milkins

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/robert-milkins-v-mark-williams/winner

I don't think Williams is 1/2 against many if any top 32 players, with the short format randomising the results to an extent too


Notes

http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?template=16&season=2012

Provisionally Williams down to 15, Milkins up to 11 (there appear to be multiple provisional lists, but this was the most striking!)

Recommend £25 Milkins to beat Mark Williams

The match is at 7pm on BBC Red button or Eurosport 1


 

Great summary Rich, thanks, very persuasive & logical.

We have taken the lower price - 11/8, with the "Final Frame Insurance", as suggested by Dwayne, which seems to add quite a bit to the value, imo.

£24 @ 11/8, BetVictor, Robert Milkins to beat Mark Williams, tonight.

ON

You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 57.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Robert Milkins v Mark Williams
Robert Milkins
(Match Betting)
Odds:  11/8
Stake:  24.00
Possible Return:  57.00

[Marky147]

Much better to bet the on the Asian handicaps +1 around evens as you get your money back if they lose by a goal which is a fairly big runner.

Milligan is a punter though and wants the big hit

[youthnkzR]

Am a big fan of the milkins bet, will be getting on shortly.

[tikay]

Would like to compliments Ralph's golf bet myself, with a much shorter selection in the African Open

When watching the first leg of my golf double come in last weekend(cough), I noticed Jaco Van Zyl playing some quite eyecatching stuff. Now is the time of year to catch him as he doesnt travel well, and I knew he finished 4th in this the last 2 years.

Expecting a stronger field I thought he would be priced as he is 12-14s, but with no Schwartzel/Sterne/Oustheizen etc or anyone from the Top 50, i would have made him 8-10s.

When playing well he is a birdie machine and after some poor form in Dubai, once back on home turf he seemed to be finding his feet last week, and I really think he will continue that this week in an exceptionally weak field.

Recommend £10 ew at 14s PP Jaco Van Zyl

Thanks Adzy, if he can get off to a good start, we might just get 4 days of fun there.

We have £10 EW, Betfred, @ 14/1, Jaco Van Zyl, Africa Open

ON


2/13/2013 1:23:12 PM  89/
90  W:10.00 S:10.00  Single  Africa Open - Outright/Tournament Outright  Van Zyl, Jaco   14/1  Open  O  £20.00  £0.00 

[tikay]

Think we need to decide the best way to get on Man U tonight, so I'll leave the bet for a while whilst we chew the cud.

Not sure I've ever done an "Asian Handicap" before, but as reds notes, it might be the way.

[class]

Any comments regarding the Doctor to be top Korean in the Northern Trust Open? Best Priced 9/2 at Sky Bet, or 4/1 PP to be Fred friendly.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/northern-trust-open/northern-trust-open/top-korean

[tikay]

Any comments regarding the Doctor to be top Korean in the Northern Trust Open? Best Priced 9/2 at Sky Bet, or 4/1 PP to be Fred friendly.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/northern-trust-open/northern-trust-open/top-korean

Ooh, thanks.

Certainly interested, we like Dr Noh.

Lets see what Methuselah-Minor & Sir hector think.

[millidonk]

Much better to bet the on the Asian handicaps +1 around evens as you get your money back if they lose by a goal which is a fairly big runner.

Milligan is a punter though and wants the big hit

That's why he's the pro and im the recdonkfish

[Graham C]

PP have a bet, RVP to score and Man U to win at 9/1, does that look ok?

[david3103]

Think we need to decide the best way to get on Man U tonight, so I'll leave the bet for a while whilst we chew the cud.

Not sure I've ever done an "Asian Handicap" before, but as reds notes, it might be the way.

I'm awful at tipping especially it seems in games involving Man U, but even as a committed 'never believe we can lose' supporter I can't see 4/1 as being great value. Real have had a little more rest and although the win makes it easier to recover post-match, many of United's stalwarts put in a pretty heavy shift on Sunday.
However, I, and SAF, do expect United to score at least one away goal
...Ferguson expects the game to live up to the expectations of both managers and the watching world.
"It won't be 0-0 on Wednesday, I can assure you of that. There will be goals," he said. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/21435045

Since it seems inevitable that Real will penetrate our somewhat porous defence at some stage, BTS seems likely. The price of 4/6 doesn't look generous though.
So - who will score United's goal(s) is where I'm looking and I found plenty of evidence to suggest that a set piece could provide the opportunity. Passing over the direct from a free kick opportunity since that's why RVP and Rooney are short prices to the headed goals from corners/free kicks how do we feel about Vidic/Evans/Jones at any time. Based on predicted line ups obviously. Prices around 16/20/12-1 respectively.

[TL900]

Real will be 100% focused on the CL. I don't think 4/1 is that great tbh.