Tips for Tikay

[JoeBeevers]

William Collum is an interesting scottish referee

The game between Galatasary and schalke tonight i will be watching anyway for obvious reasons, when i saw willie collum was in charge i perked up a bit more.

Here are the stats for the games involving the two sides this season in the champions league

4 5 7 2 6 4 gala

6 7 (1 sent off) 6 5 2 1 schalke

based on the above the mean cards per game in games between the two sides is 4.7 approx

Bet365 go evens over 4.5 cards tonight (were 11-10 yesterday) which i suggest a £20 bet (if fred can get on) for the purposes of this bet a yellow card is 1 and red card 2 points. The betfair market is very quiet but looks like it could settle at around 5-6 for over 4.5 there.

Now back onto the referee. William Collum is a bit of an all or nothing referee in european and international football (have ignored his scottish league stats for this) he averages 4.20 yellows per game and 0.38 red cards per game. So the line looks possibly a smidgen low based on everything so far.

If you just examine his stats in champions league games his average goes up to nearly 6 yellows per game (small sample size) he has also awarded 6 red cards in 13 champions league games.  I suggest he may just like the big occasion a little bit i will not go into his old firm history but suffice to say that backs the above up a little bit.

Unfourtantley the odds of a red card are only 3-1 tonight which can hardly be considered a bet anything above 5-1 i would have played at.

One final discovery is that he has awarded his first card very quickly in a lot of champions league games bet365 go evens first card of any kind upto and including the 30th minute this seems a fair bet suggest £30.

Personally i have bought the cards on the spreads tonight worse case scenario i see a small loss he could just go haywire though. The two teams are by no means dirty but the added factor of this being a probably tight game and being in the knockout stage all add some chances to more cards based on general stats.

Sorry for waffling

 

I have now got the other bet on, but Bet365 restricted me to £10 on this one. Really weird how this Restricted thing works, seems so erratic.

We have £10 @ Evens, OVER 4.5 cards, Bet 365, Galatasaray v Schalke.

So, plenty of bookings, & Gala to win.

ON

Over 4.5 @ 1/1
£10.00 Single 20/02/2013 12:16:32 10.00 0.00
     Bet Confirmation  - EF7772239510I  - Internet   Time of bet:  20/02/2013 12:16:32  Print
  

You might like to know that Boyles are now 5/4 over 46.

[tikay]

Ahh, thanks Joe. My money moved the market. The wrong way. They must know of my reputation.

[millidonk]

Millwall gone from 40s to 20s with pp now.

[tikay]

Millwall gone from 40s to 20s with pp now.

Not my money this time!

Blame Camel & Rhodesy, imo.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1315, Wednesday February 20th

PROFIT on Month = £495.62

Unsettled Bets  - £840.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=19

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1330, Wednesday February 20th

We lost the grand sum of 70p yesterday.

We lost a few bob on the horses, but mostly got it back on the very interesting corners jobbie, (humus) which absolutely cruised home for a £40 profit.

Interesting to see what we missed yesterday, so many bets were put up. There were not all full recommends, but were suggested.

Bayern (Tighty) @ 11/10 (won)

Ipswich to beat Watford (lost)

Watford to beat Ipswich (won)

Wednesday to beat Birmingham (lost)

Blackburn or the Draw (lost)

Middlesborough (lost)

Tranmere (lost)

Barnsley (won)

Millwall (lost)

ODI Boundaries (won)

It would be so easy to back every recommend, but it just shows how difficult it is. I genuinely think that we hold our head above water by being selective. Missing the odd winner is not so bad if we miss plenty of losers.

Meanwhile, we have had some interesting forward action, but I'll detail that seperately.

So, two thirds of the way through February, & we are stuttering along nicely, having some fun, & making a few shillings. Love it.

[Chompy]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

Sure are poor!

We were awful early season, when there was no Tommy Rowe and Tyrone Barnett was causing problems, but since then we've been pretty incred.

Hills still have 33/1 Millwall.

[tikay]

Morning all

i think we should have £10 on millwall to go down!  lost  1-5 to a poor Peterborough side

they have not won a game since Jan 1st   where they beat bristol at home!

5 points from the last 10 games  6 points from the drop  

40/1 on paddy power   22/1 everywhere else

Sure are poor!

We were awful early season, when there was no Tommy Rowe and Tyrone Barnett was causing problems, but since then we've been pretty incred.

Fair comment, Glenda.

[tikay]

Aploogies, I mean "Chompy", not Glenda, I get them confused.

[tikay]

The Accenture Matchplay starts in an hour or two.

So far we have Kucher Kaymer & Woods outright, but no match bets as of yet.

It is covered on Sky Sports, starting at 5pm.

In Champions League, Galatasary play tonight, we have a Banzai, Gala to win the CL Outright, £4 to win £1,000. Fun, for sure.

We have 2 Bookings bets on the same game tonight, too.

We currently have no interest in Milan - Barca tonight, where Barca are a rare 1/2.

[Tal]

Is the draw random for the matchplay?

(When) Could Kuchar play Kaymer?

[JaffaCake]

Wolves manager Dean Saunders: "You always have an eye for a goal but you can lose your eye of the tiger. I’ve still got mine but if you lose your eye of the tiger you are not actually moving to where the ball is going. It is belief and confidence. When you are scoring you have got the eye of the tiger - everywhere you run the ball bounces in front of you."

PS, I like your Wolves relegation bet, think he's lost the plot!

[tikay]

I'm intrigued by our Goinzaga Bulldogs bet, given to us by moonandback.

I have no idea how it works, but it seems similar to the NFL playoff thing.

The Bulldogs seem to currently be 12-0, so hopefully they have the West Coast Conference locked up. No idea what happens after that, though.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/conferences/wcc/

They next play tonight, v Santa Clara, who seem to be 7-5.

Hopefully, moonandback or others will keep us updated on this bet.

They remain 33/1 with Wm Hill, & 10/1 with Paddy Power. Slight difference of opinion there.



http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/ncaab/ncaa-championship/winner

[tikay]

Wolves manager Dean Saunders: "You always have an eye for a goal but you can lose your eye of the tiger. I’ve still got mine but if you lose your eye of the tiger you are not actually moving to where the ball is going. It is belief and confidence. When you are scoring you have got the eye of the tiger - everywhere you run the ball bounces in front of you."

PS, I like your Wolves relegation bet, think he's lost the plot!

Yikes, sounds that way. Bit David Icke, all that.

[tikay]

Is the draw random for the matchplay?

(When) Could Kuchar play Kaymer?

No - see the draw below.


http://www.worldgolfchampionships.com/accenture-match-play-championship/leaderboard.html

And if you can make head or tail of that, well done, because I can't. But it looks to me that they are in different "brackets", so they could not meet until they have progressed through their own bracket.

Really looking forward to watching this, 6 hours of Live coverage tonight, & presumably every night until Sunday.