Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Doobs though you were referring to him winning the thing, which you said was merely '2nd fav', hence the comment about no price.

hmmm what guy meant seemed pretty clear to me

[tikay]

We are on DAVID Howell (EW) in the European Golf, which is on Sky Sports right now.

Our man got off to a bad start, & dropped a shot, since pulled back. He has plenty to do, but we are far from dead.


http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2013/tournamentid=2013017/leaderboard/index.html

We have £10 EW @ 40/1.

[tikay]

Mr Pujara is making his comeback Mr T.

Wonderful!

156 not out, & no sign of getting out, either.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-australia-2013/engine/current/match/598813.html

[tikay]

Football chaps;

Can someone keep an eye on Walsall's league position please?

They are close to the Promotion spots now, with 55 points.

We are on them to be relegated.

We cannot write the bet off until it is mathematically certain, but the moment must be near at hand.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

[tikay]

Same comments - in reverse - apply to Huddersfield, who we are on to be Promoted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

[Doobs]

Doobs though you were referring to him winning the thing, which you said was merely '2nd fav', hence the comment about no price.

hmmm what guy meant seemed pretty clear to me

Well it is pretty clear now.  People read the sane text different ways.  No idea where the 3/1 is, but it sounds about right, and i have no intention to trail around every bookmaker to show some journo was wrong given we can't lay bookies prices.

Apologies to Guy, I shouldn't have been so abrupt.  

[Tal]

Arsenal's 2013 record:

8 games where 2nd half highest scoring
3 games where 1st half highest scoring
1 draw

Spurs's 2013 record:

4 games where 2nd half highest scoring
2 games where 1st half highest scoring
5 draws

Combined, it's:
12 for second half
5 for first half
6 draws

Today, 2nd half having more goals is priced at 8/7 with Betfair and 11/10-Evens with everybody else. 1st is 9/4-2/1. Draw is best price 14/5 with Ladbrokes, but 12/5-5/2 generally.

So, I can't call it a rick if everyone is pricing it up that way, as I assume there are enough people chalking these up independently. However, I think 14/5 for the same number of goals to be scored in the first and second halves is a little too big. Near as makes no difference a third of a point above the mean looks too generous.

I suspect the game could be tighter than is being forecast. You can get 14/1 no goalscorer with Boylesports in the Anytime Goalscorer market. I assume this is better than betting on 0-0? Is there a difference I'm not understanding?

Steven Caulker is a danger from set pieces in the air going forward and although Arsenal have a big centre back pairing, they aren't the most mobile. 12-1 anytime goalscorer with Coral and others could be fun if he plays.

There you go. Food for thought and plenty of time to rip apart.

[tikay]

Thanks Spurs Bloke. Be quite interested in feedback on all that.

The problem with these intense local derbies is that form seems to be irrelevant.

[tikay]

A little history, if I may:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Norris_(businessman)#section_2

This is one of the most questionable characters in football history. Banned from all football for life for illegal payments, Sir Henry is most famous for his role in the reason there is a North London rivalry.

In 1915, it is understood the league wanted to expand after the war. Spurs had finished bottom but it was expected as the league would be two teams larger when it started again, that they would stay in the top flight.

What happened in a board meeting in 1919 isn't exactly known. Sir Henry was there and his Arsenal side (who had finished 5th in the second division) found themselves starting the 1919 season in the top flight and spurs being relegated.

Sir Henry had already moved Arsenal from south of the river to some church-owned land because he was close friends with the Archbishop of Canterbury. He wanted to create a superclub by merging Woolwich Arsenal with Fulham (he was on both boards simultaneously and had rejected the chance to play from Stamford Bridge), as Arsenal were struggling financially. He wanted to challenge the midlands and northern clubs, too. His new location was very close to Spurs and Clapton Orient but there were no rules in those days about where you could put a club.

United and Liverpool had been accused of fixing the last game of the 1915 season and rumours abound that Norris had threatened to expose them, although it is one of many speculations. Others mainly relate to Norris, other people in that meeting and money.

The North London rivalry was born.

Lovely story, thanks, more of these please.

[Tal]

Thanks Spurs Bloke. Be quite interested in feedback on all that.

The problem with these intense local derbies is that form seems to be irrelevant.

The leaning tends to be in derbies tight first half and opening up in the second. The alternative is to lay the second half being higher on Betfair and get close to even money. Unless someone can mathematise it, I'm dubious about that being a good idea.

[tikay]

Thanks Spurs Bloke. Be quite interested in feedback on all that.

The problem with these intense local derbies is that form seems to be irrelevant.

The leaning tends to be in derbies tight first half and opening up in the second. The alternative is to lay the second half being higher on Betfair and get close to even money. Unless someone can mathematise it, I'm dubious about that being a good idea.

Mmmm, mathematise

[tikay]

The ever vigilant MereHawkEye points out a tinsy winsy error in today's Daily Report. I said "Loss" instead of "Profit".

Mere detail.....

It should have read (& is now amended)....


Daily Report @ 10.35, Sunday March 3rd

PROFIT on Month = £89.50

Outstanding bets £715


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[BigAdz]

Howell not got the same Eye of The Tiger he has had this week, looking dejected at missed putts, whereas previously frustrated he wasnt holing everything.

Needs a major rally back nine to pick up some place payout.

Sunday's, Bloody Sunday's......

[The Camel]

Arsenal's 2013 record:

8 games where 2nd half highest scoring
3 games where 1st half highest scoring
1 draw

Spurs's 2013 record:

4 games where 2nd half highest scoring
2 games where 1st half highest scoring
5 draws

Combined, it's:
12 for second half
5 for first half
6 draws

Today, 2nd half having more goals is priced at 8/7 with Betfair and 11/10-Evens with everybody else. 1st is 9/4-2/1. Draw is best price 14/5 with Ladbrokes, but 12/5-5/2 generally.

So, I can't call it a rick if everyone is pricing it up that way, as I assume there are enough people chalking these up independently. However, I think 14/5 for the same number of goals to be scored in the first and second halves is a little too big. Near as makes no difference a third of a point above the mean looks too generous.

I suspect the game could be tighter than is being forecast. You can get 14/1 no goalscorer with Boylesports in the Anytime Goalscorer market. I assume this is better than betting on 0-0? Is there a difference I'm not understanding?

Steven Caulker is a danger from set pieces in the air going forward and although Arsenal have a big centre back pairing, they aren't the most mobile. 12-1 anytime goalscorer with Coral and others could be fun if he plays.

There you go. Food for thought and plenty of time to rip apart.

While the research is impressive and might a have a tiny bearing on what the prices should be, I would have thought goals expectation is translated into near enough the correct price for which half will have the most goals.

I may be wrong though.

[outragous76]

Fwiw, I probs got out of the wrong side of bed, but the the point is, my OP was not only pretty clear, but as with everything (even my darts bets) it was posted as a question.

It was posted as a question because I was perplexed that someone can be circa 9/1 and 2nd fav to win yet 3/1 not to make the cut. As for doobs second point, I am not asking anyone to trawl through anything, I was putting a point up for discussion.

Tony, I think all of my posts on here are either questions, or looking for clarity on something. I used to start every post "I know nothing of value" or "betting noob here". I am aware of the input of many, but by the same token just because I am a noob doesn't mean everything i post should just be dismissed! Infact I am usually quite reserved about posting in this thread because of this matter.