Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

I suppose the counter to that would be Fred places a few bets purely for fun or as a New Tipster Welcome Bonus, so taking these little equity offers is just yinging that yang.

I hadn't considered that, though, and am interested to hear the vox populari.

Likewise free bets shouldn't count either

[Tal]

Though, if Fred is our notional gambler, I assume a savvy gambler would be looking to take advantage of as many of these free equity opportunities as possible, too?

[The Camel]

Though, if Fred is our notional gambler, I assume a savvy gambler would be looking to take advantage of as many of these free equity opportunities as possible, too?

Yes, but as Fred is discovering, being a winning punterer means you get resticted and have difficulty getting bets on.

Free bets/enhanced odds/special offers are not available to winners, just ice creams.

[BigAdz]

Though, if Fred is our notional gambler, I assume a savvy gambler would be looking to take advantage of as many of these free equity opportunities as possible, too?

Yes, but as Fred is discovering, being a winning punterer means you get resticted and have difficulty getting bets on.

Free bets/enhanced odds/special offers are not available to winners, just ice creams.

Hmm, not so sure. I get restricted on Hills all time, but was able to get £20 on my account, but £30 on the wifes.

Is not the point of Fred, maximising value. I think its fair to say we have placed several bets that are just placed because they are "ricks", not because we fancied the outcome per se, surely this is exploiting value rather than gambling.

Anything that makes money off the bookies and is highlighted by Fred members should qualify, imho. Unless it is a ram raid of c.

[horseplayer]

Though, if Fred is our notional gambler, I assume a savvy gambler would be looking to take advantage of as many of these free equity opportunities as possible, too?

Yes, but as Fred is discovering, being a winning punterer means you get resticted and have difficulty getting bets on.

Free bets/enhanced odds/special offers are not available to winners, just ice creams.

Hmm, not so sure. I get restricted on Hills all time, but was able to get £20 on my account, but £30 on the wifes.

Is not the point of Fred, maximising value. I think its fair to say we have placed several bets that are just placed because they are "ricks", not because we fancied the outcome per se, surely this is exploiting value rather than gambling.

Anything that makes money off the bookies and is highlighted by Fred members should qualify, imho. Unless it is a ram raid of c.

the fly offer today was available to accounts that are not usually laid a bet of any kind

[TightEnd]

The three test series in New Zealand begins this week

The first Test is down south in Dunedin. Lovely verdant ground, but tricky conditions. Blows a gale, favourable to seamers

The second test is in Wellington (the Basin Reserve is basically the middle of a giant roundabout!), Blows a gale and seamer friendly

The third test is in Auckland. On a strip of concrete at a rugby ground

Here's Dunedin. Beautiful

Click to see full-size image.

and the Basin Reserve

Click to see full-size image.

So, to opportunities

Injuries allowing, England will go through this series with

Anderson and Finn opening up

Broad as third seamer

Swann as stock bowler

The first two grounds suit swing, and in Anderson England have the finest practicioner of the art.

Added to that New Zealand are vulnerable at 1-3 with a mixture of callow youth and below Test Class players..the batting talent comes in with Williamson, Taylor and McCullum at 4-6

So, this should be a virtual match between Anderson and Finn

Broad is not of the same quality, is injury prone and if he doesn't perform Onions (who does suit the conditions) may replace him

Swann is a stock bowler on these pitches


If we look at the market

www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/test-series/new-zealand-england-tests/top-england-bowler

We can get over 2-1 Anderson who is

a) at his peak
b) in suitable conditions
c) less injury prone than his team-mates

Last tour, 2008, it was great to watch Anderson make the ball talk, more so than he can do in any other Test Country

He is an outstanding betting proposition. His correct price should be 6/4 and below. Finn is a terrific bowler, and going to be the best around on a 3 year view but he's not a favourite over Anderson

Here is some background on Anderson's progress towards Botham's English test record http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/content/story/605518.html

"Anderson has Botham's English Test record of 383 wickets in his sights. He needs another 96 to overtake the mark. There is a strong chance of him claiming the 12 he requires for 300 during the forthcoming series against New Zealand. If he averages four wickets per Test (marginally higher than his current ratio of 3.74, although that has risen to 3.96 since his recall in 2008) during the 22 matches scheduled from now until August 2014 he will be very close. "

Recommend £40 Anderson top English bowler in the forthcoming series 9/4 Coral/Hills

 

[Simon Galloway]

I'll take The Fly bet np's.

Ofc it should go down on the overall P&L.  Free bets, deposit bonuses, misclicks, rakeback(?), enhanced odds, its all part of it.

[horseplayer]

even with the expected low figure quote i will be happy to back under the new zealand partnership even on a flatbed

[Doobs]

I'll take The Fly bet np's.

Ofc it should go down on the overall P&L.  Free bets, deposit bonuses, misclicks, rakeback(?), enhanced odds, its all part of it.

This, don't understand why they shouldn't be.

[BigAdz]

I'll take The Fly bet np's.

Ofc it should go down on the overall P&L.  Free bets, deposit bonuses, misclicks, rakeback(?), enhanced odds, its all part of it.

This, don't understand why they shouldn't be.

Yeah Camel.

Stick to giving us winners, and leave Fred to all the freebies he can take!

[Tal]

There is still a skill, I would venture, in finding the best way to use these free bet opportunities. Less so in "first 500 punters get 5/1 on a 2/1 shot" jobs, but the "free bet" or "money back if X loses" markets require a bit of understanding in order to max the value.

Maybe I'm coming round to Camel's thinking.

Anyway, Grandouet is going to win.

[Doobs]

There is still a skill, I would venture, in finding the best way to use these free bet opportunities. Less so in "first 500 punters get 5/1 on a 2/1 shot" jobs, but the "free bet" or "money back if X loses" markets require a bit of understanding in order to max the value.

Maybe I'm coming round to Camel's thinking.

Anyway, Grandouet is going to win.

Don't get all the love for Grandouet.  It keeps getting beat by Zarkander and seems even more fragile than the Fly.

[Chompy]

Hurricane Fly 3.6 on 'the exchanges' at the moment. Good on Hills though. And roffle @ Sadblokes' 5/4.

Fly had not even been on my agenda this year and I was equally shocked last night. When looking at the the exchange price first, I thought why bother, but when I saw the oddschecker chart I was gobsmacked. No way he is a 5/4 shot surely?

Anyway, suspect when market adjusts the exchanges will allow a play at , based on these prices, at some stage?

If you think Mr Fly will be back to around 3.0 at some point, wouldn't it make more sense to have a bag on at 3.6 for trading purposes rather than £50 at 3/1?

[BigAdz]

Good point Chomps.

I've never really been a good back to lay player. Often gets to my pivotal time, and then I think "hmm, what if it wins"? Then I fanny about, and chop a bit in and I end up doing a bit of something and everything. It will be the same with the nifty on Fly.

The value men, and pros here will groan, but at my age, it hard to change these kinda mindsets 

[Bad Beat]

Just read this on the Betfair forum:

 "This morning at 9.00am when they went 3/1 Hurricane Fly - a NON PTL ( permission to Lay ) customer could get a Max of £50 @3/1 and the option of up to a further £500 @9/4 ; A PTL customer ( all bets referred prior to acceptance ) could get a MAX of £20 @3/1 with the option of a further £200 @9/4 . THis all changed at 11.00am when the MAX stake was dropped to £20 @3/1 for Non PTL and just £10 for PTL customers. I understand that the odds went 2/1 for phone and Net customers at 11.00am.

Up until 11.00am the odds on Betfair were around 3.70 - this has now shortened in to around 3.45 ; so even if the Arbing dole'ite plebs managed to get their 50 quid on they would probably only make enough to buy themselves a pouch of tobacco to make their roll up cigs should the horse win.

I have spoken to a number of the staff today and they have embarassingly had to turn plenty of customers away - as they apparently get a disciplinary warning if caught taking more than one fifty from each customer."

 Just wondered what people's views were. Is this good for Hills? I could understand if it gets people to open accounts, but accross all platforms? Is getting people in the shops a good thing because of the FOBTs? Is £50 a decent bet? Would it be better to offer it to the average stake of the punters last three bets? Should they reduce shop punters to £10 and PTL players on the phone to £10 and then lay the punters they want a bigger bet? Are trecreational punters even looking at having an ante-post bet today? Would they be better waiting until next Monday and laying a decent bet?

 Just interested.