Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The Chelts Value Lucky 15 is in quite a nice position


ROR 10-1  (now best 5-1)

Boston Bob 10-1 (now best 4-1)

SDC 7-1 (now best 4-1)

C Court 10-1 (now best 9-1)


Starting to think we may have a squeak

Stunning stuff Adzy!

I think the bet pays over £30,000 if all four win, & its good to dream.

I will say this, though. If I had my time again, & I knew you could get four horses to Post at Cheltenham at half the odds we backed them at, I'd have 4 Lumpy Singles next time, in addition to the Super 15. I can't help my nitty tendencies.

Don't misunderstand me, we did this bet for a reason, a really good long-term sweat & some serious fun, & it has achieved more than we ever dared.

We just need to get the two home, & this would become the greatest sweat ever. We'd have REALLY serious money rolling forward on!

Living the dream again.

[Simon Galloway]

Morning Tony.  For consistency, I think the Fly bet should be moved from me to Fred (not that I object to "taking" the bet, of course)

[tikay]

Morning Tony.  For consistency, I think the Fly bet should be moved from me to Fred (not that I object to "taking" the bet, of course)

Morning Simon.

I appreciate the sentiment, but when we decided to change the system a few days back (wisely, as it now turns out, with so many of the Offers coming through) I specifically said "effective from today".

Yes, we must be consistent, & I am grateful for the nudges in that direction from you, Doobsy & others, but in this case, no, I think the bet should remain with you. Retrospectively changing stuff willy nilly is the opposite of consistent, imo.

I do have a slight headache as to all these Offers, & I'd appreciate your input, & I'll Post my views on that shortly.

[Simon Galloway]

No problem with me keeping the fly, I hadn't seen your date effective note.

My input?  Well, I don't think it should be a headache ~ I think reasonable endeavours by you/compliance to make sure everything is as it should be is all that it needs.  It doesn't need to be poured over by legal teams and have us with our backs to the racing trying to figure it all out.  There are already reasonable processes in place for us to self-examine and make sure that everything passes sensibility tests etc.

Therefore I think it unlikely at this point that anyone could point out something which is fundamentally wrong with the book keeping/auditing methodology.  The bets are announced ahead of the race and are booked accordingly. 

I guess what I'm saying is that Cheltenham should be enjoyable for you (even if you do your niags) and if it isn't, then that would seriously detract imho from having TfT.

As for opinions on taking offers, well Neil already covered it more than eloquently.  Whatever business you are in, why wouldn't you take the low hanging fruit on offer?  For punting, you can spend hours in Timeform trying to dig up an even money shot that really should be 1/4..... or you can just take Sprinter Sacre on offer.  No brainer, really.

[tikay]

The Cheltenham Offers.

These have been more numerous & frequent than I ever imagined, & there will be loads more of them, we are still 4 days from the starting tapes, & they will continue throughout the 4 days.

It places us in a really weird position, though.

On one hand, I think it is beyond doubt or debate, if we are really being offered ool prices, & that includes better than Betty in pretty solid markets, we MUST take them. At the very worst, if our nerve failed, we could in most cases lay them off for a small but guaranteed Freeroll, or sell them at cost or a small profit (after some painful negotiation) to Lord Channing.

On t'other hand, the amount of cash they are absorbing is, relative to our 'roll, pretty scary.

So far, iirc, we have invested several hundred quid on Cheltenham Offers. Now add 4 days before Cheltenham, & four days of Cheltenham, so 8 days in all, & that figure could easily reach £600 or £700. Our roll is, notionally, £3,000, which is net of forward liabilities & past profits.

By any yardstick, 20% of that on one Event, albeit spread over a dozen or more different races, must break every Bankroll Rule ever known.

Now add in our "own" Cheltenham bets, & the final number will likely exceed £1,000. At present it is around £500 I think, & we have yet to bet any "on the day" singles. There will, for sure, be at least £200 more of Promos before we even get to Tuesday.

It is a nice dilemma, I would invest as much as I can sensibly afford to lose at the prices we are getting, & I don't plan to stop.

But there has to be a limit on what we will eventually speculate on Cheltenham, surely? 

As things stand, if we draw a complete blank - perfectly possible, let us not kid ourselves - we could lose every singler penny we have ever made, & more besides. We'd look pretty daft then, & it would be pretty bad for morale, as the poker kids say these days. 

Variance means that a) we MUST do these "Value Offers", & b) over enough years, we MUST come out ahead. Whether I will live long enough to beat variance is another thing altogether.

Cliffs - Is this responsible to bet so much on Cheltenham?

[tikay]

Just call it a Fred recommend.

OK, unless anyone demurs, a new Punter will go on the Sheet specifically for such offers, "Fred".

This will be effective 8am YESTERDAY.

So the William Hill PO bet on Jezki yesterday is now owned by "Fred", (it is currently NOT on the Spready) & today's expected wager on Long Run ditto, rinse repeat.

Bumped for Mr Galloway, fio.

[edgascoigne]

The Cheltenham Offers.

These have been more numerous & frequent than I ever imagined, & there will be loads more of them, we are still 4 days from the starting tapes, & they will continue throughout the 4 days.

It places us in a really weird position, though.

On one hand, I think it is beyond doubt or debate, if we are really being offered ool prices, & that includes better than Betty in pretty solid markets, we MUST take them. At the very worst, if our nerve failed, we could in most cases lay them off for a small but guaranteed Freeroll, or sell them at cost or a small profit (after some painful negotiation) to Lord Channing.

On t'other hand, the amount of cash they are absorbing is, relative to our 'roll, pretty scary.

So far, iirc, we have invested several hundred quid on Cheltenham Offers. Now add 4 days before Cheltenham, & four days of Cheltenham, so 8 days in all, & that figure could easily reach £600 or £700. Our roll is, notionally, £3,000, which is net of forward liabilities & past profits.

By any yardstick, 20% of that on one Event, albeit spread over a dozen or more different races, must break every Bankroll Rule ever known.

Now add in our "own" Cheltenham bets, & the final number will likely exceed £1,000. At present it is around £500 I think, & we have yet to bet any "on the day" singles. There will, for sure, be at least £200 more of Promos before we even get to Tuesday.

It is a nice dilemma, I would invest as much as I can sensibly afford to lose at the prices we are getting, & I don't plan to stop.

But there has to be a limit on what we will eventually speculate on Cheltenham, surely? 

As things stand, if we draw a complete blank - perfectly possible, let us not kid ourselves - we could lose every singler penny we have ever made, & more besides. We'd look pretty daft then, & it would be pretty bad for morale, as the poker kids say these days. 

Variance means that a) we MUST do these "Value Offers", & b) over enough years, we MUST come out ahead. Whether I will live long enough to beat variance is another thing altogether.

Cliffs - Is this responsible to bet so much on Cheltenham?

On the enhanced odds offers especially, provided the stakes are on independent outcomes and each given stake is within Fred's notional roll, it would irresponsible not to.

[TightEnd]

1. If you need help with admin, you need only ask. The offer was there a couple of months ago

2. Whilst I am sure we would all prefer The Camel to keep posting too, there are plenty of other sensible and knowledgeable guys, "elders" or not, to help the thread along and keep things within your comfort tram-lines. Witness this morning's posts for starters

[tikay]

William Hill Priority Offer.

I have just placed todays bet.

The offer was Oscar Whisky, World Hurdle, @ 6/1.

Oscar is generally available @ 7/2, 4/1 in a few spots.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/world-hurdle/winner

I asked for £50, & got this message.....



The following offer is on your requested bet:
14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky
£15.00 @ 6/1
 
Estimated Returns: £105.00
We can give you an additional offer of:
14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky
£35.00 @ 4/1
 
Estimated Returns: £175.00


So we accepted the £15 @ 6/1, & declined the additional £35 @ 4/1.

So, we have placed this bet.

Oscar Whisky to win The World Hurdle, £15 @ 6/1, William Hill, down to FRED

ON

12 Mar 2013 - 14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Outright
Tip It
Oscar Whisky  @ 6/1
Stake : £15.00
Estimated Returns : £
105.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000294/F

[tikay]

1. If you need help with admin, you need only ask. The offer was there a couple of months ago

2. Whilst I am sure we would all prefer The Camel to keep posting too, there are plenty of other sensible and knowledgeable guys, "elders" or not, to help the thread along and keep things within your comfort tram-lines. Witness this morning's posts for starters

Yes, thanks Rich.

I'll address that later, after the "rush hour" has subsided.

I have given it a deal of thought already, & I much appreciated your offer of help a while back, & now.

We are well-served here.

Camel? Who he?

[tikay]

BettingEmporium.com

As you all know, Joe Beevers & Neil Channing have been promoting their site on a seperate thread.

Having given some thought to this, I see no reason why Fred regulars should not put up Recommends for Fred based on BettingEmporium suggestions, or at least as long as it remains a "Free" service & there is not a Subscription fee, which would then change things.

I do think, however, that the source should be acknowledged. Just add "as suggested by BettingEmporium.com" will do.

I have no vested financial interest in promoting their site, but they have both been extremely good friends to me over many years, & both have been very helpful to blonde, especially in the early days, & they have also both been supportful to me in my non-blonde business interests, so I would like that we treat them fairly.

Their thread is here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=60211.0

[Bad Beat]

 Most people that really know me would say I am often a little reckless in my gambling. I generally like the drip, drip, drip, chip away and watch the money come in at the end of the year but I too love a banzai. I think that my definition of that is something a bit different to some on here but I have bet £500 on a 1000/1 shot more than once and I seem to recall having £500 on a 100/1 winner (some idiot in a poker event).

 I can sense your worry Tikay, and while I do think we just HAVE to take advantage of every Hills offer, (and the others - keep an eye out for Betfred between 12 noon and 2pm, may have to be in a shop), I don't think we neccessarily have to stick with each one until post time.

 I have had a look through the Cheltenham portfolio and I might make a couple of suggestions for discussion to see if anyone fancies some "pruning":


 Long Run - We have backed him at 13/2, 7/1 and 10/1 (e/w). If we had known we could get 10/1 we wouldn't have taken the other bets obv and now we have £45 to win. I don't mind that at all but have we had a little too much?

 We could put a lay up of £10 at 7.6 (13/2) to try and get rid of our "worst" bargain. It probably won't get matched as it trades at around 8.4, but there is no harm in leaving it up.

 Hurricane Fly - we have £30 at 3/1. The good news for us is that the race is now down to 10 runners and it's possible less go to post. The "bad" news is that every single bookmaker seems mad keen to lay him. He currently trades at 3.55ish. I am against and I can't see it can possibly go lower than 3.25 but it could go to 3.85ish.

 It would be Ok by me if we laid some or all of the bet at 3.5, so why not leave up £10 or £20 at 3.5 and see if any gets matched.

 Jezki - we have £20 at 8/1 and £20 at 7/1 for the Supreme. It's an Ok bet, I wouldn't want to lay it, but I wouldn't spend three hours of my life trying to get it. We may have more on than we would if these offers didn't exist. It's possible to lay it at 8.0 (7/1) so we could just lay our "bad price" £20 at that price and be left with £20 at 8/1.

 Cue Card - I just don't fancy. Nobody seems to fancy it, it will be at least 5/1 on the day. There was nothing wrong with having the bet when we did as it was trading at 5.4 but now it is getting close to 6.0. We can probably currently lay it at 5.8, we may have to go 5.9. I think we should abandon ship and dump the stock.

 Oscar Whisky does not stay. The only way, to my mind, that it can win, is that the little crooks on board the other horses are idiotically stupid and they allow the race to be run at a really slow pace. Luckily for backers of Oscar Whisky, most of these people are idiotically stupid. I don't mind Fred having a bet at 6/1 but I think it will drift on the day and I would possibly put a lay straight up for £15 at 6.0.

 Please don't shout at me for being a filthy arber.

 That's my ideas. Feel free to ignore.
 

[The Camel]

Pretty sure the Cheltenham offers will pretty much dry up when the Festival starts, so feast on them now, while you can.

Also, I am not intending to leave the thread altogther, just retiring as a Tipster.

I've even cancelled my order for the Racing Post in the village shop.

Better no tips than shitty ones.

[Bad Beat]

 Very kind of you Tikay.

 I was thinking about that just now.

 I am about to write some stuff that "NEEDS" to be done on Cheltenham in the next 48 hours. It will be harder to get on if everyone in the world sees my ideas, but I really would like Fred and the Fred regulars to get on. It's tricky. I'll probably put up some big price suggestions that won't last long.

 Joe is obviously keen that many hundreds more people sign-up to the site as we have no plan on exactly how we will attempt to make money out of our project, but we do know we'll need some customers and their details so we can try and sell to them.

 Maybe we can have a couple of hours and then I'll post the odd suggestion on Fred. I really enjoy tft and some people here are definitely owed a pint from me for their help. Really want to pass on some winners if I can.

[Bad Beat]

 Who's that bloke two posts above?

 Didn't he used to be someone around here?

 (cancelling Racing Post=confirmed busto).