Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Neil abs nailed it if you are concerned about you Chelters stuff Tony, no probs with trimming the stakes if you feel its the best thing to do. Prob best to put the lays Neil suggested in str8 away tho and give yourself a better chance of catching the market swaying over the next few days.

The one that it might pay to be a little cute with is oscar whiskey, there have been a few rumours that all is not well with RDS in that race, should that be the case and it doesnt make it then the top end of the market will get shorter. I dont fancy OW either but you might end up losing a few ticks on your lay by waiting to see if RDS is ok but might be able to lay at a point lower if it is out.

Thanks Phil.

The plan is to execute most of those lays this afternoon. I'll either do them pre-nap (excuse for misclicks - "I was tired") or after my nap (excuse "I had just woken up").

It pretty much ONLY applies to the "OFFER" bets where they cancel out an existing bet. I don't think I should lay "accepted" bets from Fred regulars except in those circumstances, where the OFFER price significantly beats the price we originally got on. 

Now, talk us though Mexican Rallies & silly hats.

[tikay]

Any thoughts on Wolves to beat Forest tomorow being worth a small bet (£10?).

Forest are on a long unbeaten run for them of 5 games, four wins on the bounce, Wolves have won one of last ten so looks a home banker?

But, Forest are short of strikers and really struggled to beat a 9 man Ipswich side midweek and Wolves finally won at Millwall on Tuesday and performed reasonably well to draw at home vs Watford in a game I watched on SS the other Friday.

Fred has Wolves to be relegated as a long term bet but I think 11/4 on Corals DNB is worth a tenner vs Forest. (To win is 4/1 with Billy Hill I understand).

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/nottingham-forest-v-wolverhampton/draw-no-bet


First tip I've recommended on Fred, stands back ready for flames

You have been on blonde since Day One (Ok, Day Two, but still 8 years+), & are the bedrock of the Millynits thrrad & you have never had a Fred bet?

Guess we have to grant you Newbie Status, & get on. No idea if the bet is good or not, but we gotta have some fun, & there'll be a huge cheer if it wins. Then you can retire from Fred with a 100% record.

Off to Vegas again shortly, I hear? What a life.....Who'd have thunk that 5 or 6 years ago, when you were "not so well"?

[redsimon]

Be ironic cheering it in as I'm a Forest fan man and boy . Yeah, 50th birthday next week imagine I'll be grinding it out @ Venetian

[tikay]

Any thoughts on Wolves to beat Forest tomorow being worth a small bet (£10?).

Forest are on a long unbeaten run for them of 5 games, four wins on the bounce, Wolves have won one of last ten so looks a home banker?

But, Forest are short of strikers and really struggled to beat a 9 man Ipswich side midweek and Wolves finally won at Millwall on Tuesday and performed reasonably well to draw at home vs Watford in a game I watched on SS the other Friday.

Fred has Wolves to be relegated as a long term bet but I think 11/4 on Corals DNB is worth a tenner vs Forest. (To win is 4/1 with Billy Hill I understand).

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/nottingham-forest-v-wolverhampton/draw-no-bet


First tip I've recommended on Fred, stands back ready for flames

Off we go.

We have £10 @ 11/4, DNB, Corals, Wolves to beat Forest.

ON


SingleID:O/1597594/0000053Wolves11/4Nottm Forest v Wolves - 09/03/2013Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£37.50Confirming BetsPlease do not click on any other link while we are confirming your bets. Please wait.

Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £37.50

[kinboshi]

My first tip for Fred, and it's in rugby league.

Wigan are at home to Catalan Dragons tonight at 8pm, and Catalan were available at 4.61 on betfair and 4.25 on youwin.  This is simply too much value.

Wigan managed to beat Castleford last week by a very slender margin (Castleford hit the post with a drop-goal attempt in the dying minutes, and then Wigan went up the other end to score). They could have easily lost.

Wigan and Catalan are level on points in the league - with both of them having won 3 drawn 1 and lost 1.

Catalan have a strong and aggressive pack, and they try and dominate teams with their forwards.  Wigan on the other hand have a shed-load of injuries and absentees from their forwards including Mossop, Hansen, Lauaki, Prescott all out long-term, Hock out on a season-long loan, and for this week the captain O'Loughlin and another forward Tuson are both doubts for the match as is Crosby who suffered concussion in the match against Castleford (O'Loughlin will be assessed today). In the match against Castleford Ben Flower was the oldest of Wigan's prop-forwards at 25 years - so it's a very young pack that Wigan are having to rely on.  Spencer, who is on loan at Leigh has been recalled and will step-in to replace Crosby if he isn't declared fit to play.

Darrell Goulding is also missing from the squad, and his influence as the centre on the right shouldn't be understated. Offensively, his contribution is massive and defensively he adds a lot of steel.  Last week, all of Castleford's tries came via attacks down Wigan's right, where the absence of Goulding was very apparent.


Wigan 19 Man Squad v Catalan Dragons
(in alphabetical order)
Greg Burke, Josh Charnley, Dom Crosby, Gil Dudson, Liam Farrell, Ben Flower, Blake Green, Jack Hughes, Michael McIlorum, Sean O'Loughlin, Sam Powell, Pat Richards, Matty Smith, Rhodri Lloyd, Scott Taylor, Iain Thornley, Logan Tomkins, Sam Tomkins, Chris Tuson

I'd suggest that the odds on Catalan Dragons are far too generous, and Wigan shouldn't be such strong favourites with the state of the squad.  Even @ 3/1 I'd see a value in a bet on Catalan to win.

[lee h]

Thread is full of intelligent bets, well thought out and insightful.

But to bet £100 on Spurs at 3/1 when they are 4.3 offered on Betfair is inexcusable!!

Its all about the price, its all about the price, its all about the price!!


lee

[tikay]

Thread is full of intelligent bets, well thought out and insightful.

But to bet £100 on Spurs at 3/1 when they are 4.3 offered on Betfair is inexcusable!!

Its all about the price, its all about the price, its all about the price!!


lee

Fair point.

If only I could be perfect & never make a mistake.

[booder]

I'd suggest that the odds on Catalan Dragons are far too generous, and Wigan shouldn't be such strong favourites with the state of the squad.  Even @ 3/1 I'd see a value in a bet on Catalan to win.

Got to agree with Dan on this one Teeks.

[Jamier-Host]

The following offer is on your requested bet:
14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky
£15.00 @ 6/1
 
Estimated Returns: £105.00
We can give you an additional offer of:
14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky
£35.00 @ 4/1
 
Estimated Returns: £175.00


So we accepted the £15 @ 6/1, & declined the additional £35 @ 4/1.

Tip here for restriction avoidance - if you place these bets via their mobile app you can see what your limit is by typing in an amount and seeing if it shows in black or red font.  Therefore as it is basically impossible for them to track the insertion and deleting of numbers until you get to the max allowed, it may be considered less shrewd in their flagging system to place the bets that way.  It just looks like you happened to ask for £15 off the bat.

Jamie

[Doobs]

Thread is full of intelligent bets, well thought out and insightful.

But to bet £100 on Spurs at 3/1 when they are 4.3 offered on Betfair is inexcusable!!

Its all about the price, its all about the price, its all about the price!!


lee

That is the price now?  What was the price then?  

[Doobs]

I think you had better have another look at the " math " Mr T.

As an aside I did one of these bets on City in the last round against Leeds, 3-0 and 4-0, and it came in.

Bugger!

I was looking at the scores, not the odds.

I blame Aaron. Everyone else does.

Even so, I still need to understand how we know if those odds are anything like right.

Presumably, there is a goals expectation linked to the Outright Odds. Everton are, generally, 2/5.

These correct score markets tend to have a much bigger margin/overound than the outright markets.  Every man and his dog is going to expect man city to thrash Barnsley.  Picking fairly likely selections in markets with big overounds where bookies are likely to have a good handle on the distributions of scores is not likely to be +EV in the long run. 

There is no evidence at all we are thinking any different to your average ice cream here.

[tikay]

My first tip for Fred, and it's in rugby league.

Wigan are at home to Catalan Dragons tonight at 8pm, and Catalan were available at 4.61 on betfair and 4.25 on youwin.  This is simply too much value.

Wigan managed to beat Castleford last week by a very slender margin (Castleford hit the post with a drop-goal attempt in the dying minutes, and then Wigan went up the other end to score). They could have easily lost.

Wigan and Catalan are level on points in the league - with both of them having won 3 drawn 1 and lost 1.

Catalan have a strong and aggressive pack, and they try and dominate teams with their forwards.  Wigan on the other hand have a shed-load of injuries and absentees from their forwards including Mossop, Hansen, Lauaki, Prescott all out long-term, Hock out on a season-long loan, and for this week the captain O'Loughlin and another forward Tuson are both doubts for the match as is Crosby who suffered concussion in the match against Castleford (O'Loughlin will be assessed today). In the match against Castleford Ben Flower was the oldest of Wigan's prop-forwards at 25 years - so it's a very young pack that Wigan are having to rely on.  Spencer, who is on loan at Leigh has been recalled and will step-in to replace Crosby if he isn't declared fit to play.

Darrell Goulding is also missing from the squad, and his influence as the centre on the right shouldn't be understated. Offensively, his contribution is massive and defensively he adds a lot of steel.  Last week, all of Castleford's tries came via attacks down Wigan's right, where the absence of Goulding was very apparent.


Wigan 19 Man Squad v Catalan Dragons
(in alphabetical order)
Greg Burke, Josh Charnley, Dom Crosby, Gil Dudson, Liam Farrell, Ben Flower, Blake Green, Jack Hughes, Michael McIlorum, Sean O'Loughlin, Sam Powell, Pat Richards, Matty Smith, Rhodri Lloyd, Scott Taylor, Iain Thornley, Logan Tomkins, Sam Tomkins, Chris Tuson

I'd suggest that the odds on Catalan Dragons are far too generous, and Wigan shouldn't be such strong favourites with the state of the squad.  Even @ 3/1 I'd see a value in a bet on Catalan to win.

Another one who has been a blonde for ever (too long some might say) & not had a Fred bet.

Newbie Status granted, we will get on.

Well-constructed Recommend, too, but you omitted the suggested Stake, so we'll go for a tenner.

It helps if you stick an Oddschecker Link up with the prices too, if you get time. If I get the prices wrong, I get shouted at.

I have a funny feeling that hector might recommend this too, but we will cross that bridge as & when.

4.61 on Betfair? You sure? Best I can see is 3.71, but the Market on Betty is arid. I honestly dion't think 4.61, as suggested, was really available for more than a moment, it is just too high. 

So.......we have taken 3/1 with Corals.

We have £10 @ 3/1, Catalan Dragons to beat Wigan.

ON

SingleID:O/1597594/0000054Catalans3/1Wigan v Catalans - 08/03/2013Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£40. Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £40.0

[kinboshi]

It was offering 4.61 on Betfair earlier (I got on at 4.1). I'm guessing news has leaked out about O'Loughlin's fitness, and that's shortened the price a fair bit - but it's still good value at 4 with Coral.

Didn't want to suggest a stake, as I'd put on as much as I had available

[tikay]

The following offer is on your requested bet:
14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky
£15.00 @ 6/1
 
Estimated Returns: £105.00
We can give you an additional offer of:
14th Mar 2013 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle - Oscar Whisky
£35.00 @ 4/1
 
Estimated Returns: £175.00


So we accepted the £15 @ 6/1, & declined the additional £35 @ 4/1.

Tip here for restriction avoidance - if you place these bets via their mobile app you can see what your limit is by typing in an amount and seeing if it shows in black or red font.  Therefore as it is basically impossible for them to track the insertion and deleting of numbers until you get to the max allowed, it may be considered less shrewd in their flagging system to place the bets that way.  It just looks like you happened to ask for £15 off the bat.

Jamie

Ahh, good man, I never knew that.

Several Sites have a "MAX" button, but I have not seen it on Wm Hill via a Desktop or Lappie. In fact I have the Wm Hill App on my Ippy, but it is time consuming to bet for Fred via Ippy, as I cannot C & P from it, so then I have to go to the Desktop/Lappie & go to "My Account/My Bets" sorta thing so I can Post the receipt here.

Appreciate the nod.

As it was an Offer, I just asked for £50, to see what happened really.

[tikay]

It was offering 4.61 on Betfair earlier (I got on at 4.1). I'm guessing news has leaked out about O'Loughlin's fitness, and that's shortened the price a fair bit - but it's still good value at 4 with Coral.

Didn't want to suggest a stake, as I'd put on as much as I had available

Because the liquidity is wafer thin, it is jumping all over the place. As of right now, it is 3.55.