Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Is the mere mention of Hevad Khan worthy of a red card?

[BigAdz]

Is the mere mention of Hevad Khan worthy of a red card?

Sat next to him the year he did so well, took half my chips in the nicest manner you could imagine. It was that easy, he didnt even celebrate....

[ruholding]

Daily Summary, @ 0910, Thursday March 27th

Nothing completed yesterday, so it is "as you were".

18 bets completed on Tuesday, & nil yesterday, talk about hot & cold.

We have built up some portfolios & forward stuff which should sustain us for a while.

We have stuff for...

The entire cricket season

The entire Baseball season.

The Masters Golf (just one so far)

The Grand National (two so far)

We have a bunch of season long football bets approaching their climax, Easter is often crucial in these markets.

Chess - finishes this weekend.

Greyhound Derby - three picks so far.

World Snooker Championships, 4 selections.

Champions League

Basketball - the MVP bet on LeBron must be completing soon?

Europa League

Lions Tour

FI World Champion

Flat Season Classics.

All good stuff, there should be a sweat or two there.

Oh, & two Eurovision Song Contest bets. Ugh.

hi tikay

what bets do you have on the baseball and cricket seasons?

FWIW i would take the toronto blue jays to win the east division (much improved ball club) at 2.50

cricket season i would put £50 on yorks getting releagated from div 1(england call ups, bad weather and a bad bowling line up looks like curtains to me) - struggling to find a price on that one!!!

[Marky147]

hi tikay

what bets do you have on the baseball and cricket seasons?

FWIW i would take the toronto blue jays to win the east division (much improved ball club) at 2.50

cricket season i would put £50 on yorks getting releagated from div 1(england call ups, bad weather and a bad bowling line up looks like curtains to me) - struggling to find a price on that one!!!

We're all on Tampa Bay Rays @ 10/3 m8

I'll dig out the post and quote it in a second...

[Marky147]

Saw this too late but yeah I thought it was decent.

Onto a long term recommendation.  I have spent the last few days having a good look at the upcoming baseball season.  I don't normally like to tie up my capital for an entire season but I think there is a really good ante post bet in the American League East.  A bit of background.  The AL East is the glamour division in baseball because it has the Yankees and Redsox in it.  These two teams are as close as you get to consistently overbet teams in baseball because they have such huge fan bases.  The rest of the division is made up of Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the Baltimore Orioles.  

We can pretty much rule out the Yankees and Red Sox being any value.  The Yankees range from a laughable 9/4 with Boyles to a more realistic but still too short 19/5 with Hills.  To give you an idea in the ESPN preview I read they were described as the worst Yankees team since 1991 but of more importance they are going to be starting the season without their superstars A-Rod and Derek Jeter and A-Rod might not play until it is too late to retrieve the situation and Curtis Granderson is out until May too. In spring training they have been the worst team in the Grapefruit League.  Worse than the Marlins even and living in Miami I know the Marlins might just about be the worst team in baseball this year. Their pitching staff is still fairly good but I don't really see how they aren't 10/1 - 16/1 shots.  

Boston are a top priced 8/1.  They were a poor team last year and have made a lot of changes but they haven't gotten themselves a star pitcher and they play in a league where you really need that to go up against the likes of Sabathia, Verlander etc.  The rest of their pitching staff is a bit meh in my opinion and they had the fourth worst bullpen in all of baseball last year (although this tends to be a stat that regresses to the mean from what I have read).  So Basically we have a team that might be good enough on offense and wont be good enough on defense.  I think they are 14/1 shots.
  
Onto the Blue Jays.  Last week I drove my parents up to see some friends of theirs from Toronto who come down every year to Florida for a bit of sun but also to attend The Blue Jays spring training.  This is interesting because the bookies have installed the Blue Jays as the short as 11/8 to win the AL East on the back of some eye catching off season trades but in spring training apparently they haven't been putting it together and are 3rd from bottom of the Grapefruit league with Miami and the Yankees the only teams below.  My parents friends didn't seem too optimistic and my analysis of the situation was similar.  They should get better and it is probably a fairly weak league this year but even so I don't really see how they are not 3/1 shots.

The Orioles are a team I am struggling to figure out a bit.  The finished the season last year like a train to make the playoffs but they also appear to have been a bit lucky.  they went 16-2 in extra innings games and that can only really be down to running good and the traditionally best way to measure how good a team is is to measure runs scored against runs allowed and this tends to back up the idea that they were lucky to reach the playoffs last year.  All that said they seem to have carried the momentum into Spring training and currently lead the Grapefruit league.  I honestly have no idea whether it will be the team that played the first half to tw thirds of last year or the last third/spring training team that will show up.  They are quoted at a best priced 10-1 and that seems about right to me......possibly a bit generous but I wouldn't tie up my money for the year.

That leaves us with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Probably up there with the most unfashionable franchises in US sports.  If you have kept up you will know that to 100% I make the Devil Rays about a 5/4 shot to win this division.  That is clearly crazy because they are available at 7/2 with Bwin and 10/3 with Betfred, Boyles, Tote and Sportingbet.  Now all of these firms in my view have no clue what they are doing.  They pay peanuts and they get monkeys.  The firms with half a clue including Pinnacle are 13/5 and Paddy Power are as short as 9/4.  Maybe these firms would be closer to me if their competitiors had priced the market differently i don't know and I am willing to concede I could have slightly overrated the importance of Spring training but I am also aware that it isn't that important and more importantly I think the devil Rays are potentially a very good team.  Theyb were massively unlucky to miss the playoffs last year and this was largely down to Baltimores luck mentioned earlier.  Baltimore outscored their opponents by 8 runs last year.  Tampa outscored their opponents by over 100 runs last year yet Baltimore went to the playoffs and Tampa didnt despite winning 90 games.  They have won 90 games or more in four of the last five seasons and this year they return most of last years team including Cy Young winning pitcher David Price so you could argue they have the bestb starting pitcher in the league which will give them a huge advantage against the other American league star pitchers in the tight games.  Maybe they aren't 5/4 shots, in fact they probably aren't 5/4 shots and I have probably underrated almost every other team in the league but they sure as hell aren't 7/2 shots.  They arent even 3/1 shots.  Sometimes in betting you work hard on something and you just get a feeling you have a big edge and the odds compilers have got it completely wrong and this is it for me.  It's my 49ers. 

This one

[ruholding]

Saw this too late but yeah I thought it was decent.

Onto a long term recommendation.  I have spent the last few days having a good look at the upcoming baseball season.  I don't normally like to tie up my capital for an entire season but I think there is a really good ante post bet in the American League East.  A bit of background.  The AL East is the glamour division in baseball because it has the Yankees and Redsox in it.  These two teams are as close as you get to consistently overbet teams in baseball because they have such huge fan bases.  The rest of the division is made up of Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the Baltimore Orioles.  

We can pretty much rule out the Yankees and Red Sox being any value.  The Yankees range from a laughable 9/4 with Boyles to a more realistic but still too short 19/5 with Hills.  To give you an idea in the ESPN preview I read they were described as the worst Yankees team since 1991 but of more importance they are going to be starting the season without their superstars A-Rod and Derek Jeter and A-Rod might not play until it is too late to retrieve the situation and Curtis Granderson is out until May too. In spring training they have been the worst team in the Grapefruit League.  Worse than the Marlins even and living in Miami I know the Marlins might just about be the worst team in baseball this year. Their pitching staff is still fairly good but I don't really see how they aren't 10/1 - 16/1 shots.  

Boston are a top priced 8/1.  They were a poor team last year and have made a lot of changes but they haven't gotten themselves a star pitcher and they play in a league where you really need that to go up against the likes of Sabathia, Verlander etc.  The rest of their pitching staff is a bit meh in my opinion and they had the fourth worst bullpen in all of baseball last year (although this tends to be a stat that regresses to the mean from what I have read).  So Basically we have a team that might be good enough on offense and wont be good enough on defense.  I think they are 14/1 shots.
  
Onto the Blue Jays.  Last week I drove my parents up to see some friends of theirs from Toronto who come down every year to Florida for a bit of sun but also to attend The Blue Jays spring training.  This is interesting because the bookies have installed the Blue Jays as the short as 11/8 to win the AL East on the back of some eye catching off season trades but in spring training apparently they haven't been putting it together and are 3rd from bottom of the Grapefruit league with Miami and the Yankees the only teams below.  My parents friends didn't seem too optimistic and my analysis of the situation was similar.  They should get better and it is probably a fairly weak league this year but even so I don't really see how they are not 3/1 shots.

The Orioles are a team I am struggling to figure out a bit.  The finished the season last year like a train to make the playoffs but they also appear to have been a bit lucky.  they went 16-2 in extra innings games and that can only really be down to running good and the traditionally best way to measure how good a team is is to measure runs scored against runs allowed and this tends to back up the idea that they were lucky to reach the playoffs last year.  All that said they seem to have carried the momentum into Spring training and currently lead the Grapefruit league.  I honestly have no idea whether it will be the team that played the first half to tw thirds of last year or the last third/spring training team that will show up.  They are quoted at a best priced 10-1 and that seems about right to me......possibly a bit generous but I wouldn't tie up my money for the year.

That leaves us with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Probably up there with the most unfashionable franchises in US sports.  If you have kept up you will know that to 100% I make the Devil Rays about a 5/4 shot to win this division.  That is clearly crazy because they are available at 7/2 with Bwin and 10/3 with Betfred, Boyles, Tote and Sportingbet.  Now all of these firms in my view have no clue what they are doing.  They pay peanuts and they get monkeys.  The firms with half a clue including Pinnacle are 13/5 and Paddy Power are as short as 9/4.  Maybe these firms would be closer to me if their competitiors had priced the market differently i don't know and I am willing to concede I could have slightly overrated the importance of Spring training but I am also aware that it isn't that important and more importantly I think the devil Rays are potentially a very good team.  Theyb were massively unlucky to miss the playoffs last year and this was largely down to Baltimores luck mentioned earlier.  Baltimore outscored their opponents by 8 runs last year.  Tampa outscored their opponents by over 100 runs last year yet Baltimore went to the playoffs and Tampa didnt despite winning 90 games.  They have won 90 games or more in four of the last five seasons and this year they return most of last years team including Cy Young winning pitcher David Price so you could argue they have the bestb starting pitcher in the league which will give them a huge advantage against the other American league star pitchers in the tight games.  Maybe they aren't 5/4 shots, in fact they probably aren't 5/4 shots and I have probably underrated almost every other team in the league but they sure as hell aren't 7/2 shots.  They arent even 3/1 shots.  Sometimes in betting you work hard on something and you just get a feeling you have a big edge and the odds compilers have got it completely wrong and this is it for me.  It's my 49ers. 

This one

good luck sir ........i am a rays fan and get over there a couple of times a year.  They have the advantage of a dome for a satdium whcih is an advantage but sometimes leads to alot of low scoring games where de-fence is the key  (although they have an excellent bullpen).  Just feel that they are still too inconsistent during improtant periods of the season but 10/3 does represent good value sir so all the best

ps its rays not devil rays!!!!!!!!!!

[aaron1867]

10/3 still around?

amount suggested?

[Marky147]

10/3 still around?

amount suggested?

Back up the truck

[ruholding]

tikay

Have you or anyone had any thoughts on the upcoming snooker world champs.

Pre draw i like the look of Ding who should be available at double figure prices+

could be worth waiting for the draw to try and plot a winner

i think chompy is looking at Shaun Murphy for a little bit of value

[Dubai]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

[redarmi]

Wow Tampa appear to have changed their name like 5 years ago and I didn't notice!!!!!

[TightEnd]

Phil, rusurrey, worth reading back 20 pages if you have the time

county championship, world snooker championship all tipped and discussed

[ruholding]

Phil, rusurrey, worth reading back 20 pages if you have the time

county championship, world snooker championship all tipped and discussed

thoughts on surrey rich? i reckon 5th or 6th depending on smith and punters runs.  Also i hope that waste of space Jason Roy dont play otherwise relegation is on the cards

[TightEnd]

Phil, rusurrey, worth reading back 20 pages if you have the time

county championship, world snooker championship all tipped and discussed

thoughts on surrey rich? i reckon 5th or 6th depending on smith and punters runs.  Also i hope that waste of space Jason Roy dont play otherwise relegation is on the cards

wouldn't back surrey with your money, unless I see signs that the top 7 can actually construct scores.

We are on Middlesex e/w at 7-1. Warwicks worthy favourites at 4-1. Somerset, Notts but Middlesex priced to come 6th/7th of 10 and think thats incorrect with Harris onboard

[aaron1867]

I'm trying my hardest not to top up any interest I have in the Championship relegation battle, but baffled by the 8-1 price on Ipswich with BetVictor.

4 points above the relegation spots, worst goal difference and some of the teams around them have a game in hand. They are definitely not a team I look at and think "how the hell are they down there" because they simply are down there because they are no good and the MM rub has rubbed off lately.

I think 8's is too big here.

I know Fred already has a lot of interest in it already with Wolves and Birmingham, so doubtful we can get on here, but would recc upto £20 on this, but trying to figure out if this is any good for me personally too? I already have an interest in Wolves too.