Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

I'm trying my hardest not to top up any interest I have in the Championship relegation battle, but baffled by the 8-1 price on Ipswich with BetVictor.

4 points above the relegation spots, worst goal difference and some of the teams around them have a game in hand. They are definitely not a team I look at and think "how the hell are they down there" because they simply are down there because they are no good and the MM rub has rubbed off lately.

I think 8's is too big here.

I know Fred already has a lot of interest in it already with Wolves and Birmingham, so doubtful we can get on here, but would recc upto £20 on this, but trying to figure out if this is any good for me personally too? I already have an interest in Wolves too.

Whats the all important run in like Aaron?

[McGlashan]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

We can but try and anything matched is of benefit if the chessbase analysis price of 1.33 is accurate. Secondly there is a daily market at Marathonbet you could use to back either of the other 2 candidates.

[aaron1867]

I'm trying my hardest not to top up any interest I have in the Championship relegation battle, but baffled by the 8-1 price on Ipswich with BetVictor.

4 points above the relegation spots, worst goal difference and some of the teams around them have a game in hand. They are definitely not a team I look at and think "how the hell are they down there" because they simply are down there because they are no good and the MM rub has rubbed off lately.

I think 8's is too big here.

I know Fred already has a lot of interest in it already with Wolves and Birmingham, so doubtful we can get on here, but would recc upto £20 on this, but trying to figure out if this is any good for me personally too? I already have an interest in Wolves too.

Whats the all important run in like Aaron?

I wouldn't say too tough or too easy, perhaps a mediocre run-in.

They are up against teams up there, down there and teams who have nothing to play for.

My worry is that the price will be gone by the weekend of they lose or the bet would be looking slim if they win.

I would probably back Barnsley for the chop as they have the toughest run-in in the whole league, but it is simply a no-price.

[DungBeetle]

8-1 does seem quite generous on Ipswich to be honest.  There's no way I would lay at that price.

[Dubai]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

We can but try and anything matched is of benefit if the chessbase analysis price of 1.33 is accurate. Secondly there is a daily market at Marathonbet you could use to back either of the other 2 candidates.

The chessbase thing said "freds fella" was a 6/4 shot pre tourny but we seem to have £100 on him at 4/6, so can only assume chessbase thing has been ignored as inaccurate already, or Tikay got some explaining to do

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Rugby league tonight sees some CESM's coming to London. They are the better team but with the travelling and a heavy pitch this could go either way but I do not see a lot of points scored. The Stoop is out of action as it has cut up after last weeks game so this game is being played at Esher's ground. We can go low on points at 50.5, a total that London have exceeded only once at home this season and once that Catalans have exceeded away.

Suggest £26 under 50.5 points @ 11/13 with Bwin.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Rugby league tonight sees some CESM's coming to London. They are the better team but with the travelling and a heavy pitch this could go either way but I do not see a lot of points scored. The Stoop is out of action as it has cut up after last weeks game so this game is being played at Esher's ground. We can go low on points at 50.5, a total that London have exceeded only once at home this season and once that Catalans have exceeded away.

Suggest £26 under 50.5 points @ 11/13 with Bwin.

Mr hector, good evening!

That'll do nicely, thank you, we are on exactly as directed.

The CESM's won't be happy tonight, it is VERY cold here in West London & Surrey.

We have £26 @ 11/13, BWin, UNDER 50.5 points, London Broncos v Catalans.

ON

Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible winnings
Single bet
1SWL99P9UZ
3/28/2013 6:13 PM
26.00 GBP
48.10 GBP
Date   Event  Bet  Pick  Result  Odds 
3/28/2013 9:00:00 PM    Super League London Broncos - Catalans Dragons  Totals  Under 50,5  ?  1.85

[Tal]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

We can but try and anything matched is of benefit if the chessbase analysis price of 1.33 is accurate. Secondly there is a daily market at Marathonbet you could use to back either of the other 2 candidates.

The chessbase thing said "freds fella" was a 6/4 shot pre tourny but we seem to have £100 on him at 4/6, so can only assume chessbase thing has been ignored as inaccurate already, or Tikay got some explaining to do

Yes, it is the former. I looked at the numbers the chap put up earlier in the comp and they were a long way from the reality of the situation. He was apparently on a frolic of his own with the analysis, with a number of other simulations having Carlsen at 1.6ish IIRC. To suggest Carlsen only wins this comp from the outset 4 times out of 10 is bananas.

Upset you missed the bit where I actually posted something logical and well thought out. Like Halley's Comet, that. Another 80 posts before you get another one. If you're lucky.

I was umming and ahing about posting that link for exactly the reason you've identified. I can't dismiss analysis and then use the same as a justification.

[tikay]

I'm working this evening, so cannot place ANY bets after 6pm.

There is (are?) only darts this evening, so perhaps we will have a night off, but if anything is Posted pre 6pm, I can sort it, if need be.

Thanks.

[tikay]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

Noted, & helpful to us Betty Newbies.

As it happened, I did have a look, & the LAY Price was 1.4 when the BET price was 1.18, so I was not interested anyway, especially as we are "only" on at 1.67.

Anyway.......I've had a nap & thought aboit it, & dedcided we should hold our nerve & stick with the original bet.

Carlsen is bright enough to know that there is a Tie-Break countback which does not currently favour him, & I'm sure it is in his mind to ensure it is not bought into play. 

[Marky147]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

Noted, & helpful to us Betty Newbies.

As it happened, I did have a look, & the LAY Price was 1.4 when the BET price was 1.18, so I was not interested anyway, especially as we are "only" on at 1.67.

Anyway.......I've had a nap & thought aboit it, & dedcided we should hold our nerve & stick with the original bet.

Carlsen is bright enough to know that there is a Tie-Break countback which does not currently favour him, & I'm sure it is in his mind to ensure it is not bought into play. 

Have to be careful of those countbacks, they can be costly...

[tikay]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

We can but try and anything matched is of benefit if the chessbase analysis price of 1.33 is accurate. Secondly there is a daily market at Marathonbet you could use to back either of the other 2 candidates.

The chessbase thing said "freds fella" was a 6/4 shot pre tourny but we seem to have £100 on him at 4/6, so can only assume chessbase thing has been ignored as inaccurate already, or Tikay got some explaining to do

Nothing new there, but on this occasion, not Guilty M'Lord.

The bet was proposed at around 1.7 or a shade under, & was deemed good value at that price. We placed 2 bets, average price 1.6626.

6/4 has never been seen, or not to my knowledge. We would have had a MAX-MAX if 6/4 was available. Truly!

So, tell us how you somehow called for a lump of your stack with K-high, which was not winning, & still scooped the pot? Honest to God, never seen owt like it.

 

[tikay]

The bf market isn't liquid in the slightest on the chess, so the discussion about laying off at 1.18 is irrelevant as that isn't the price. Just because £2 been matched etc doesn't mean you can lay £100 or so on something when the gap between the back and lay side is so big and the market illiquid. I'd guess you'd have to lay 1.25 or so to get matched, which is a big difference.

You can't just load up betfair look at a market and assume u can lay the back price, it doesn't work like that

Noted, & helpful to us Betty Newbies.

As it happened, I did have a look, & the LAY Price was 1.4 when the BET price was 1.18, so I was not interested anyway, especially as we are "only" on at 1.67.

Anyway.......I've had a nap & thought aboit it, & dedcided we should hold our nerve & stick with the original bet.

Carlsen is bright enough to know that there is a Tie-Break countback which does not currently favour him, & I'm sure it is in his mind to ensure it is not bought into play. 

Have to be careful of those countbacks, they can be costly...

It is the late entries you should becareful of.....

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0910, Thursday March 27th

Nothing completed yesterday, so it is "as you were".

18 bets completed on Tuesday, & nil yesterday, talk about hot & cold.

We have built up some portfolios & forward stuff which should sustain us for a while.

We have stuff for...

The entire cricket season

The entire Baseball season.

The Masters Golf (just one so far)

The Grand National (two so far)

We have a bunch of season long football bets approaching their climax, Easter is often crucial in these markets.

Chess - finishes this weekend.

Greyhound Derby - three picks so far.

World Snooker Championships, 4 selections.

Champions League

Basketball - the MVP bet on LeBron must be completing soon?

Europa League

Lions Tour

FI World Champion

Flat Season Classics.

All good stuff, there should be a sweat or two there.

Oh, & two Eurovision Song Contest bets. Ugh.

hi tikay

what bets do you have on the baseball and cricket seasons?

FWIW i would take the toronto blue jays to win the east division (much improved ball club) at 2.50

cricket season i would put £50 on yorks getting releagated from div 1(england call ups, bad weather and a bad bowling line up looks like curtains to me) - struggling to find a price on that one!!!

Hi,

All our current bets are listed on the Spreadsheet under "March", & include 1 CC Cricket bet & 4 Baseball bets.

Here you go.....

 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

tikay

Have you or anyone had any thoughts on the upcoming snooker world champs.

Pre draw i like the look of Ding who should be available at double figure prices+

could be worth waiting for the draw to try and plot a winner

i think chompy is looking at Shaun Murphy for a little bit of value

Hi again.

We currently have FOUR selections for the World Snooker Championships, all of which are listed on the Spready, which is Updated, & Linked, in the Daily Reports.

Here you go......

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22