Tips for Tikay

[OverTheBorder]

Yeah just realized tikay is actually on at 3.15 thanks!

Somehow deleted my post but had to read it a few times too

[horseplayer]

having really bad internet problems (thanks builders so typing this from phone which im surprised can even load blonde


bet suggest

£10 eway snowboarder 2.25 meydan 33-1 blues/888sport (happy to take down to 25-1) first 3 places

basically a price thing

not often you can back a horse at 33-1 that was favourite to beat todays favourite last time (secret number)

not as if snowboarder ran that badly infact last twice now has had poorish rides and pulled hard throughout so the suggestion is still in form.

The fav did win easily last time but 33-1 is to much of an over reaction

[tikay]

having really bad internet problems (thanks builders so typing this from phone which im surprised can even load blonde


bet suggest

£10 eway snowboarder 2.25 meydan 33-1 blues/888sport (happy to take down to 25-1) first 3 places

basically a price thing

not often you can back a horse at 33-1 that was favourite to beat todays favourite last time (secret number)

not as if snowboarder ran that badly infact last twice now has had poorish rides and pulled hard throughout so the suggestion is still in form.

The fav did win easily last time but 33-1 is to much of an over reaction

Thanks horsey.

Glad it is "only" internet problems, I was starting to worry about you, not seen much of you this week. Hope all is OK with Mum.

Blue Square, as is increasingly the case, restricted me to £8 EW, but we took it, & are safely aboard. Thanks.

We have £8 EW @ 33/1, Blue Square, "Snowboarder", 14.25 Meydan.

ON

Selection Snowboarder @ 33/1 
Market
 Win or Each Way
 
Event
 Meydan
2.25
2013-03-30 14:25:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Each Way Single
 
Unit Stake
 £8.00
 
Number of Units
 x2
 
Total Stake
 £16.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2013-03-30 11:30:41
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000200
 

[Tal]

Rest day today in the chess BTW. Action tomorrow

[Bad Beat]

Whilst i am at it. Wigan to beat Norwich at home are Evs with PP. Wigan are typically strong on the run in, have begun to pick up a little winning two from their last three.  Norwich are not playing great, are drawing a lot of games and generally quite poor and will think they can almost coast to safety and are without a decent Prem keeper following Bunn's suspension and Ruddy being out injured. Cant see anything other than an easy Wigan win and suggest they really should be odds on here.

Recommend Fred gets on this too.

 Great post. Doobs has totally hit the n on the h (not for the first time).

Wigan at evens means the layers think they are the best side even before home advantage.   Norwich are 7 points clear of them.  This doesn't suggest massive value on the face of it, or an obvious easy win.

I remember reading some stats a year or so back suggesting that though people expect teams in relegation battle to fight much harder for their survival; the reality is that on average the bad teams continue playing badly.  There are teams like Wigan last year that go on very good runs, but there are others like Wolves last year who get worse.  The average is somewhere close to as bad as ever. 

Not sure i am following your point Doobs. You cant ignore Wigan's revival and survival credentials.

Wolves were terrible last year and got worse because they sacked big bent nosed Mick, whereas Wigan have some fire power and Norwich have simply stopped playing. Most of their boys are wearing in the flip flops ready for summer and Grant Holt is still digesting his christmas pud.

Do you think the price is correct. I wasnt suggesting it was huge value but it does represent some decent value in my mind worth a small bet.

If you were to price up a game between two evenly matched football teams, you would go something like home team 5/4, draw 5/2, away team 2/1.  I think that is about right from memory, but Neil or one of the betting gurus can correct me on this.

If you were to ignore current form/Wigan's survival credentials in this match and just look at the table, you may go Wigan should be 11/8 or 6/4 here.

Given Wigan are evens here, then it is clear to me they haven't just looked at the table and priced it up.  So we can guess that in the evens price there is an adjustment for their current form and/or survival credentials in the price already.

So for this to be value, we don't have to show this adjustment should be there, we have to show that the layers/betting syndicates are underestimating the size of the adjustment to the price.  I am not sure we have done that. 

In my previous post I referred to something I had previously read.  That was that somebody had theorised that the perceived improvement in the form of relegation threatened teams was a bit of an illusion, or at least not as great as people think.  So you get rich by laying these teams not backing them.  So Wigan are where they are because they aren't that good.  They may well improve at the end of the season, but underneath that they still aren't very good.  In addition we haven't got a great deal of data on The survival chances of a Wigan side under Martinez.  Last year they may just have got lucky??

Having said all that above, Betfair had them at 1.96/1.98 currently and evens beats that.  Given we expect Betfair to be close to perfect on a Premiership football match then we can use that to conclude evens is a tiny bit of value.  I wouldn't be a backer though.

[tikay]

Never mind that Mr C, get that Irish Open won. Winning it would only be loose change to you, but every little helps.

Looking forward to your Aintree thoughts via Betting Emporium.

[BigAdz]

If African Story is one of the favs for the World Cup later having beaten Capital Attraction by 2l last time. Surely, Capital Attraction in a lesser race over same track and dist at 33s is v nicely priced?

[Bad Beat]

 Sadly I won't be winning it this year. Have plenty of extra time on my hands to work out how to quote people when replying without messing it up.

 Have bets in rugby union, football and horses today but struggling to get on from here.

 Will pass anything on that I have done with where I can.

[chelseaboy]

Boxing Tonight

I think Chilemba at 11/5 is a good bet... should be evens imo! This fight is a coin flip and Bellew hasnt been as impressive as his big mouth the last few fights. Chilemba has fast hands and can move, He isnt the biggest puncher in the division but I think he boxing ability and movement is going to really give Bellew are hard time tonight!

[tikay]

If African Story is one of the favs for the World Cup later having beaten Capital Attraction by 2l last time. Surely, Capital Attraction in a lesser race over same track and dist at 33s is v nicely priced?

Sorry Adzy, you have lost me there. What time, course etc?

[redarmi]

Really not sure about this boxing bet.  Bellew is close to being a title contender imo.  Probably a little below world class but Chilemba is almost certainly not world class.  He was knocked down twice by Maxim Vlasov and Bellew can really bang.  I would think that the real danger to Bellew will come from someone that can knock him down like Ovil McKenzie did in their fights.  It is never a pick em fight given it is in Liverpool.  I think it is about right to be honest.

[BigAdz]

Race at Meydan, Tikay. Just ran. Good job you missed it, he had ran his race getting to the first bend from bad draw

[tikay]

Boxing Tonight

I think Chilemba at 11/5 is a good bet... should be evens imo! This fight is a coin flip and Bellew hasnt been as impressive as his big mouth the last few fights. Chilemba has fast hands and can move, He isnt the biggest puncher in the division but I think he boxing ability and movement is going to really give Bellew are hard time tonight!

Thanks Mr Chelsea.

We have a few Boxing experts here, Bazza in particular, hopefully they will give me some help or feedback on that.  Think the last boxing match I watched featured Terry Downes or Henry Cooper.

[tikay]

Really not sure about this boxing bet.  Bellew is close to being a title contender imo.  Probably a little below world class but Chilemba is almost certainly not world class.  He was knocked down twice by Maxim Vlasov and Bellew can really bang.  I would think that the real danger to Bellew will come from someone that can knock him down like Ovil McKenzie did in their fights.  It is never a pick em fight given it is in Liverpool.  I think it is about right to be honest.

Top stuff Reds, thanks.

I watched that Basketball game last night. Great game but how did we get out of that hole?!

[redarmi]

Really not sure about this boxing bet.  Bellew is close to being a title contender imo.  Probably a little below world class but Chilemba is almost certainly not world class.  He was knocked down twice by Maxim Vlasov and Bellew can really bang.  I would think that the real danger to Bellew will come from someone that can knock him down like Ovil McKenzie did in their fights.  It is never a pick em fight given it is in Liverpool.  I think it is about right to be honest.

Top stuff Reds, thanks.

I watched that Basketball game last night. Great game but how did we get out of that hole?!

College basketball especially this time of year is often very exciting like that but that game took it to a whole new level.