Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tofino Bay withdrawn from national betting. Trainer states its going for a Novice chase at limerick instead...

Whoops again.

Think we are NRNB though. "I think" = "I hope"......

I quoted a Post that disappeared.

Did I just get April-Fooled?

Bleurgh.

No, withdrawn

today's withdrawals - P De Beauchene, Bob Lingo,Tofino Bay, Lion De Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill & Magnanimity

[Bad Beat]

 I'm still in Ireland from where I'm struggling to get on so I may as well tell you guys what I'm doing so we can collectively deliver some pain.

 I've looked at five races today and found a couple of bets.

 The 2.10 at Huntingdon is a pretty weak race, and it can easily be narrowed down to just four runners. I wouldn't want to be on Who's Cross at less than 5/2, don't think it's form is all that and it carries the penalty. Will probably frame but too short imo. Kuda Huraa is pretty interesting and it wouldn't surprise me at all. I prefer backing on what they have already done rather than potential though and the "sexy" look is in the price. Carlton Jack hasn't done enough to win this and I'm not sure if they want it to win or expect it to improve. This is the one I could see being unplaced.

 That leaves us with Rayvin Black. I was taking 11/2 each-way as it was heading to 9/2 on Betfair. I would have taken 9/2 anyways. The form looks reasonably solid. Evs to place is a great bet.

 You can now get 5/1 with VC and Corals.

 Couldn't find one in the 2.25 at Newcastle. Favourite should win at 4/11. Didn't really like the favourite in the 2.35 at Plumpton and tried to convince myself about Dollar Bill. I almost succeeded. Dropzone is also a possibility. The 2.40 at Huntingdon has two stand-out runners. It's really hard to see anything else winning. Obviously something must finish 3rd and I'm against Scorer so you could do worse than bet Rashheed, Foxclub or Cairanne at massive prices. In a world where bookmakers welcomed me with open arms I would bet all three each-way.

 Eventually I found a second bet.

 I really can't have Indian Castle in the 2.55 at Newcastle. I laid it and it's since drifted badly. It wouldn't surprise me if the favourite Matthew Riley won but this is totally different than the 2.40 at Huntingdon. These are not two standout horses and I could see them both failing to frame. I would not put anyone off betting Blue Cascade each-way at 20/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power, Bluesq), but the one I have gone for is Standintheband at 12/1 with lots of firms.

 Would recommend two £20 each-way singles and a £10 each-way double.

 Standintheband 2.55 Newcastle at 12/1 with many firms inc Corals and BetVictor.

 Rayvin Black 2.10 Huntingdon at 5/1 with Corals and BetVictor (would take 9/2).



 

[Chompy]

Recent form

Middlesbrough: LWLLLL

Peterborough: WDDDWW

Brough have nothing to play for, Boro are in form and now with realistic chances of dodging the drop. Also, we're better on the road.

Posh-Posh H-T/F-T = 6/1. Go figure. Recommend a non-rebuffed £20 at that handsome price.

[TightEnd]

Doncaster 1-0 after 85

Hold...................................

[tikay]

I'm still in Ireland from where I'm struggling to get on so I may as well tell you guys what I'm doing so we can collectively deliver some pain.

 I've looked at five races today and found a couple of bets.

 The 2.10 at Huntingdon is a pretty weak race, and it can easily be narrowed down to just four runners. I wouldn't want to be on Who's Cross at less than 5/2, don't think it's form is all that and it carries the penalty. Will probably frame but too short imo. Kuda Huraa is pretty interesting and it wouldn't surprise me at all. I prefer backing on what they have already done rather than potential though and the "sexy" look is in the price. Carlton Jack hasn't done enough to win this and I'm not sure if they want it to win or expect it to improve. This is the one I could see being unplaced.

 That leaves us with Rayvin Black. I was taking 11/2 each-way as it was heading to 9/2 on Betfair. I would have taken 9/2 anyways. The form looks reasonably solid. Evs to place is a great bet.

 You can now get 5/1 with VC and Corals.

 Couldn't find one in the 2.25 at Newcastle. Favourite should win at 4/11. Didn't really like the favourite in the 2.35 at Plumpton and tried to convince myself about Dollar Bill. I almost succeeded. Dropzone is also a possibility. The 2.40 at Huntingdon has two stand-out runners. It's really hard to see anything else winning. Obviously something must finish 3rd and I'm against Scorer so you could do worse than bet Rashheed, Foxclub or Cairanne at massive prices. In a world where bookmakers welcomed me with open arms I would bet all three each-way.

 Eventually I found a second bet.

 I really can't have Indian Castle in the 2.55 at Newcastle. I laid it and it's since drifted badly. It wouldn't surprise me if the favourite Matthew Riley won but this is totally different than the 2.40 at Huntingdon. These are not two standout horses and I could see them both failing to frame. I would not put anyone off betting Blue Cascade each-way at 20/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power, Bluesq), but the one I have gone for is Standintheband at 12/1 with lots of firms.

 Would recommend two £20 each-way singles and a £10 each-way double.

 Standintheband 2.55 Newcastle at 12/1 with many firms inc Corals and BetVictor.

 Rayvin Black 2.10 Huntingdon at 5/1 with Corals and BetVictor (would take 9/2).



 

Lovely, thanks Neil.

We missed the 9/2 Rayvin, but otherwise, all aboard.

Have a safe journey home, & get to work on Aintree please.

We have.....

£20 EW @ 9/2, BetVictor, Rayvin Black, 2.10 Huntingdon.

£20 EW @ 12/1, BetVictor, Standintheband, 2.55 Newcastle.

£10 EW Double, same two horses, also with BetVictor.

ON

Huntingdon 14:10
RAYVIN BLACK (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  9/2
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  148.00
Newcastle 14:55
STANDINTHEBAND (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  12/1
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  328.00
Multiple Selections
RAYVIN BLACK @ 9/2
(Horse Racing Outright)
STANDINTHEBAND @ 12/1
(Horse Racing Outright)
Multiple Type:  Double (EW)
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  N/A

[Doobs]

Tofino Bay withdrawn from national betting. Trainer states its going for a Novice chase at limerick instead...

Whoops again.

Think we are NRNB though. "I think" = "I hope"......

Sure it was NRNB.  It was in the original post

[Karabiner]

This gives me a warm contented feeling:


www.arsenalist.com/m/iZvCEWuhRznR

[BigAdz]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

Just realised that the Doncaster game starts at 12.15, so imminent.

In the absence of feedback, we have had a nitty £20 @ 2/1 with BetVictor, Doncaster.

Full details to follow.

ON

I would love to be able to understand the pricing of Donny and when they are value

We have heard in an earlier post Donny and Swindon are better bets away from home. Bank that.

Friday Donny are away(plus point) to 10th place Coventry who have been put into admin and are hardly on fire, yet deemed no value at nearly 2-1. Admittedly they lost, so good swerve.....but....

Today they are home to Swindon(so Swindon are away!) who are 4th(i think) and getting more results than Coventry. Donny have just lost, yet today we deem them value at 2-1 having said they are better away, and have just lost their last away game to a worse team than they play today who are also a good away team.

Confused? Yep, me too!!

But as I am deep into Donny for the title, my loyalties are with the bet, I just cant fathom the logic!

I don't pretend to understand it either, but.....

a) Be careful of placing too much emphasis on that logic train you used, & on short term individual results.

b) By any proven pricing model, Donny should not be 2/1 today. Maths tells us that. Donny are top of the League, 4 points above Swindon, & at home. 

c) It is a bit awkward for me, but for the most part, in selecting what to bet or not to bet, I hold little view on the bet itself, but place my judgement (such as it is) in WHO Posts the bet. Brent very rarely Posts, & says very little, but when he does, I listen good. He understands betting very well, imo.

Al of which is nicely balanced by the fact that Donny were woeful first half, such that they are now, in-running......12/5!


It's all about opinions. Not simply getting them all right, but getting more right than wrong.

Bit like your Westwood thing - it is just opinions, none of us know with certainty whether Westwood Mark 2 will turn up at Augusta, we'd all be millionaires if we did, but we have to take a basket of views & opinions. 

As predicted, my post was always bound to make me look daft, not that its hard, but still cant see how they been priced up. Nonetheless........

Go Donny!!!

[tikay]

Doncaster 1-0 after 85

Hold...................................

Yes!

Double Whammy Jobbie, we had £20 @ 2/1 today, plus we have £20 @ 12/1 to be Champions, for which they must now be well-placed.

April is off & running, & that pays for the Darts bets.

[tikay]

Tofino Bay withdrawn from national betting. Trainer states its going for a Novice chase at limerick instead...

Whoops again.

Think we are NRNB though. "I think" = "I hope"......

Sure it was NRNB.  It was in the original post

CONFIRMED - it was, now I recall, pretty much the basis of the bet, it was a win-win thing.

[tikay]

Recent form

Middlesbrough: LWLLLL

Peterborough: WDDDWW

Brough have nothing to play for, Boro are in form and now with realistic chances of dodging the drop. Also, we're better on the road.

Posh-Posh H-T/F-T = 6/1. Go figure. Recommend a non-rebuffed £20 at that handsome price.

Damn you!

Why can't we just have 14/5 Posh to win, nice & simple?.......

No Rebuff, just a Nit Lecture.

We are aboard.

We have £20 @ 6/1, Blue Square, Peterborough HT/FT over 'Boro, tomorrow.

PS - Thanks. What day is Bin-Day this week? Always a worry Bank Holiday weeks, eh?

ON

Selection 1
 
Selection Peterborough United / Peterborough United @ 6/1  
Market
 Half-Time/Full-Time
 
Event
 English Championship
Middlesbrough v Peterborough United
2013-04-02 19:45:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2013-04-01 14:10:52
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000204

[Doobs]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

Just realised that the Doncaster game starts at 12.15, so imminent.

In the absence of feedback, we have had a nitty £20 @ 2/1 with BetVictor, Doncaster.

Full details to follow.

ON

I would love to be able to understand the pricing of Donny and when they are value

We have heard in an earlier post Donny and Swindon are better bets away from home. Bank that.

Friday Donny are away(plus point) to 10th place Coventry who have been put into admin and are hardly on fire, yet deemed no value at nearly 2-1. Admittedly they lost, so good swerve.....but....

Today they are home to Swindon(so Swindon are away!) who are 4th(i think) and getting more results than Coventry. Donny have just lost, yet today we deem them value at 2-1 having said they are better away, and have just lost their last away game to a worse team than they play today who are also a good away team.

Confused? Yep, me too!!

But as I am deep into Donny for the title, my loyalties are with the bet, I just cant fathom the logic!

I don't pretend to understand it either, but.....

a) Be careful of placing too much emphasis on that logic train you used, & on short term individual results.

b) By any proven pricing model, Donny should not be 2/1 today. Maths tells us that. Donny are top of the League, 4 points above Swindon, & at home. 

c) It is a bit awkward for me, but for the most part, in selecting what to bet or not to bet, I hold little view on the bet itself, but place my judgement (such as it is) in WHO Posts the bet. Brent very rarely Posts, & says very little, but when he does, I listen good. He understands betting very well, imo.

Al of which is nicely balanced by the fact that Donny were woeful first half, such that they are now, in-running......12/5!


It's all about opinions. Not simply getting them all right, but getting more right than wrong.

Bit like your Westwood thing - it is just opinions, none of us know with certainty whether Westwood Mark 2 will turn up at Augusta, we'd all be millionaires if we did, but we have to take a basket of views & opinions. 

As predicted, my post was always bound to make me look daft, not that its hard, but still cant see how they been priced up. Nonetheless........

Go Donny!!!

Don't want to aftertime, but was having lunch/looking after ankle biters.

 I did a post earlier in the week and when two evenly matched teams are playing together.  The home team should be way less than 2/1 (possibly about 5/4), so if Donny were 2/1 it would look like value to me.

I didn't bet ( see above) but got them for champions too.

[tikay]

2.10 Huntingdon

1st  7 Kuda Huraa (IRE)  2/1
2nd  11 Rayvin Black  9/2
3rd  1 Who's Cross (IRE)  15/8 f

So we (almost) broke even there, & we still have the Place Double running, plus the other EW Single.

Our worst case liability is not as worst as it was.

[tikay]

Donny & Birmingham overpriced today

Oddschecker is now mended.

The Donny Prices are.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/doncaster-v-swindon/winner


...and Birmingham.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/birmingham-v-wolverhampton/winner



If those prices still rep value, how much should we consider? Weak, medium, strong?

Anyone?

Just realised that the Doncaster game starts at 12.15, so imminent.

In the absence of feedback, we have had a nitty £20 @ 2/1 with BetVictor, Doncaster.

Full details to follow.

ON

I would love to be able to understand the pricing of Donny and when they are value

We have heard in an earlier post Donny and Swindon are better bets away from home. Bank that.

Friday Donny are away(plus point) to 10th place Coventry who have been put into admin and are hardly on fire, yet deemed no value at nearly 2-1. Admittedly they lost, so good swerve.....but....

Today they are home to Swindon(so Swindon are away!) who are 4th(i think) and getting more results than Coventry. Donny have just lost, yet today we deem them value at 2-1 having said they are better away, and have just lost their last away game to a worse team than they play today who are also a good away team.

Confused? Yep, me too!!

But as I am deep into Donny for the title, my loyalties are with the bet, I just cant fathom the logic!

I don't pretend to understand it either, but.....

a) Be careful of placing too much emphasis on that logic train you used, & on short term individual results.

b) By any proven pricing model, Donny should not be 2/1 today. Maths tells us that. Donny are top of the League, 4 points above Swindon, & at home. 

c) It is a bit awkward for me, but for the most part, in selecting what to bet or not to bet, I hold little view on the bet itself, but place my judgement (such as it is) in WHO Posts the bet. Brent very rarely Posts, & says very little, but when he does, I listen good. He understands betting very well, imo.

Al of which is nicely balanced by the fact that Donny were woeful first half, such that they are now, in-running......12/5!


It's all about opinions. Not simply getting them all right, but getting more right than wrong.

Bit like your Westwood thing - it is just opinions, none of us know with certainty whether Westwood Mark 2 will turn up at Augusta, we'd all be millionaires if we did, but we have to take a basket of views & opinions. 

As predicted, my post was always bound to make me look daft, not that its hard, but still cant see how they been priced up. Nonetheless........

Go Donny!!!

Don't want to aftertime, but was having lunch/looking after ankle biters.

 I did a post earlier in the week and when two evenly matched teams are playing together.  The home team should be way less than 2/1 (possibly about 5/4), so if Donny were 2/1 it would look like value to me.

I didn't bet ( see above) but got them for champions too.

Adzy - as I see it, we almost ignore the detail, & just look at that. It SHOULD be 5/4, 11/8, something in that area, plus an adjustment for detail such as recent form. 2/1 is too big, win or lose, for any two Teams in those respective positions. (+ or - a bit for form, injuries etc).

[tikay]

a rare premiership bet for me tonight

17/20 - Over 35 Points Ladbrokes
EventFulham v QPR English
MarketBookings


4 bookings gets the bet home

The match was originally priced up with lee moss as the referee, there has been a switch to lee probert.

Probert averages slightly more cards per game than moss (3ish to 2.6ish this season)

Throw in probert sent hangeland off earlier in season, and since the turn of the year has upped his cards to an average of just over 4 per game (maybe co incidence)

could take the slightly bigger over 4 with bluesq but i prefer the over 3.5 with laddies

suggest £30

Thanks horsey.

VERY rare to see a Premiership Football bet from you, but not surprised it is a quirky Market.

Safely aboard.

We have £30 @ 17/20, Ladbrokes, OVER 35 Booking Points Fulham v QPR this evening.

ON

Fulham v QPR
English
2013-04-01 20:00:00
 
Market: Bookings 
 
Selection: Over 35 Points @ 17/20 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000305
 
Placed at: 14:17 01/04/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £30.00
 
Number of lines: 1
 
Stake: £30.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £30.00