Tips for Tikay

[scotty2hatty]

PS to Scottty.

How are our Greyhound Derby jobbies coming along?

Hoping, assuming it is on TV tomorrow, you can run the TV Greyhound thingie again, as you did last week. Good fun that.

I mentioned earlier that Aldworth Samson is likely to go for the Scottish Derby and now it seems that Jaytee Hellcat is going to trial at Shawfield too. The Scottish Derby has been reduced to an 18 dog field with 10k up top so is likely to get a strong field this year.

Skate On sprint trialled around Wimbledon's 273m in a fast time today.

I've added Holdem Spy. Beast at Coventry who turned over Alien Planet there (c.25s) on Sunday. I backed at 125s but people should still get involved at 100s if they want to add more dogs. Very strong dog who finishes well and although usually has to come from 5th or 6th has been breaking better of late. I imagine the Derby is definitely the aim with this.

In other Derby related news, PP have went 25/1 about Farloe Warhawk. Warhawk and Ballymac Eske were 16/1 join favourites before Eske smashed everyone the other week but Warhawk doesn't seem quite fit yet and beat Eske in the Puppy Derby at Wimbledon last year, consistently pinging and scoring well.

Eden Star is the one I really want to get with. 12/1 favourite last year and performed tremendously in the opening round before withdrawing. 28/1 with PP is making me want to pull the trigger now. Has just reappeared with a nice sprint trial at Sheff and then today trialled around their 480m, recording a time of 27.87. Eske trialled too, setting a time of 27.73. Eden Star is obviously a bit behind Eske at the moment so the timings are very encouraging.

Warhawk, Star and Eske all trained by Barrie Draper, what a life.

[Marky147]

PS to Scottty.

How are our Greyhound Derby jobbies coming along?

Hoping, assuming it is on TV tomorrow, you can run the TV Greyhound thingie again, as you did last week. Good fun that.

I mentioned earlier that Aldworth Samson is likely to go for the Scottish Derby and now it seems that Jaytee Hellcat is going to trial at Shawfield too. The Scottish Derby has been reduced to an 18 dog field with 10k up top so is likely to get a strong field this year.

Skate On sprint trialled around Wimbledon's 273m in a fast time today.

I've added Holdem Spy. Beast at Coventry who turned over Alien Planet there (c.25s) on Sunday. I backed at 125s but people should still get involved at 100s if they want to add more dogs. Very strong dog who finishes well and although usually has to come from 5th or 6th has been breaking better of late. I imagine the Derby is definitely the aim with this.

In other Derby related news, PP have went 25/1 about Farloe Warhawk. Warhawk and Ballymac Eske were 16/1 join favourites before Eske smashed everyone the other week but Warhawk doesn't seem quite fit yet and beat Eske in the Puppy Derby at Wimbledon last year, consistently pinging and scoring well.

Eden Star is the one I really want to get with. 12/1 favourite last year and performed tremendously in the opening round before withdrawing. 28/1 with PP is making me want to pull the trigger now. Has just reappeared with a nice sprint trial at Sheff and then today trialled around their 480m, recording a time of 27.87. Eske trialled too, setting a time of 27.73. Eden Star is obviously a bit behind Eske at the moment so the timings are very encouraging.

Warhawk, Star and Eske all trained by Barrie Draper, what a life.

I hope I have a good few days at Aintree

[Tal]

A picture to cheer us all up.

Nostalgia. Those halcyon days when Fred was slamming the table and shouting "SHIP IT!"

Magnus went to Number 10 with Kramnik, Aronian and the other five candidates for the prize giving ceremony.

[lee h]

scotty

 don't know if u watched the dogs but Holdem Spy dodged to fuuck tonight at Coventry,

......they'll prob repeat on rpgtv at some stage

[Doobs]

Grand National

Twiston Davies was interviewed this morning and said

"Asked to assess Imperial Commander's chances, the trainer said: "The National is the National but they should be superb. He jumps well and he's three stone well-in from when he won the Gold Cup [in 2010] and he can't be three stone worse since then, surely.""

Thoughts please.To what extent are his comments overly bullish, and to what extent realistic?

thanks

have never heard twiston davies anything but confident

infact he is usually bullish about everything he runs

ok, allowing for that, is he factually correct or is it bull?

he is factually correct but 2010 was a long time ago

despite what they said that the horse was only 75% for its re appearance i struggle to believe that considering the horse has always been best fresh, has since had a setback and this stinks of an afterthought to me

if the horse is well then he will get into the race at some point due to ability but personally i will be amazed if he finishes the race

Echo the comments on Twiston Davies.  He is always bullish about his horses. 

One of the owners of Imperial Commander used to post a lot on the betfair ante post forum.  He always seemed to have his feet on the ground about his horse, and he was very positive about his horse's work earlier in the season.  I think that is more of a positive.

This is what he said back in January

I think yesterdays racecourse gallop was the best I have ever seen from Imperial Commander, his companion was a 70 rated flat horse who is no superstar but will win novice hurdles and who we thought would be sharp enough to test him over a very inadequate two mile spin. He is getting fitter by the day, is really well and fresh at home and wants to be a racehorse. As a 12-y-o he has lost some of his tactical speed and is an out an out stayer these days, but on what we are seeing he retains much of his class. The problem is the limited options in terms of races - we will know more when  we take on Bobs Worth in the Argento, and he looks to be on course for that and should arrive in decent nick.

I wouldn't be that worried about him staying, you win a Gold Cup, you should be able to stay a Grand National trip.  The Gold Cup is pretty attritional.

I am on at 20/1 e/w with 6 places.  I was composing a post straight after, but the price was gone before I could post. 

I did put a post up here later when you could get 16/1 and 6 places, but self censored it.

Just hoping he still has it at 12, but he really hasn't got many miles on the clock.

[Doobs]

Good luck with the Brighton bet (after this weekend, when our comeback starts. He says unconvincingly)

but its still a £300 bet on them making the play offs as you can't lay off half unless they do, and therefore again breaking the self imposed bankroll rules...

and the post is full of hyperbolic statements such as  "the best goalkeeper" etc...

All of which are challengeable, minimum.

and the Championship playoffs are going to be as tight as they have been for many years. Can't have Brighton favourites over Watford or Hull, could have them favourites over Palace and Forest I suppose but every game in those is going to be nasty

9/2 doesn't do it much for me at this stage.

Anyway, I'll be cheering the bet on....(for the most part!)

I don't think it is a bad bet at all.  1/3 to make the play offs seems about right.  Like you, I don't think they will be 5/2 when they get there, as it must be 50/50 they face Hull or Watford.  I also coud make the point, if they are that good, why are they 6th.  Even though I have a bet on Palace to be promoted already, I'd put Brighton as favourites in a match vs them and not sure Forrest can be any better than Brighton.  So if we take a more pessimistic view and say they start the play offs at 3/1, then 9/2 is still a bit of value, so I think the bet has a bit of a safety margin.  Thanks to Keith, I got some 5/1 on Sky Bet after the match.

I was a bit concerned about the breaking of the max bet.  If a string of people pop in and say we must break the max for the Cheltenham race which paid 5 places then I think it is fine to break the max, but I don't think we should be doing it without a discussion.    I think the Dubai bet was clearly very unlucky and I'd have been happy to vouch for that one, even though it turned out to be a loser.

Anyway, what is done is done, and will leave it at that.  Don't want to be adding to Tikay's woes.

 

[tikay]

Good luck with the Brighton bet (after this weekend, when our comeback starts. He says unconvincingly)

but its still a £300 bet on them making the play offs as you can't lay off half unless they do, and therefore again breaking the self imposed bankroll rules...

and the post is full of hyperbolic statements such as  "the best goalkeeper" etc...

All of which are challengeable, minimum.

and the Championship playoffs are going to be as tight as they have been for many years. Can't have Brighton favourites over Watford or Hull, could have them favourites over Palace and Forest I suppose but every game in those is going to be nastyKep the feedback & help coming. And, if possible, a winner would go down rather well right now.....

9/2 doesn't do it much for me at this stage.

Anyway, I'll be cheering the bet on....(for the most part!)

I don't think it is a bad bet at all.  1/3 to make the play offs seems about right.  Like you, I don't think they will be 5/2 when they get there, as it must be 50/50 they face Hull or Watford.  I also coud make the point, if they are that good, why are they 6th.  Even though I have a bet on Palace to be promoted already, I'd put Brighton as favourites in a match vs them and not sure Forrest can be any better than Brighton.  So if we take a more pessimistic view and say they start the play offs at 3/1, then 9/2 is still a bit of value, so I think the bet has a bit of a safety margin.  Thanks to Keith, I got some 5/1 on Sky Bet after the match.

I was a bit concerned about the breaking of the max bet.  If a string of people pop in and say we must break the max for the Cheltenham race which paid 5 places then I think it is fine to break the max, but I don't think we should be doing it without a discussion.    I think the Dubai bet was clearly very unlucky and I'd have been happy to vouch for that one, even though it turned out to be a loser.Anyway, what is done is done, and will leave it at that.  Don't want to be adding to Tikay's woes.

 

You make a very fair point there Doobs.

On a personal level, I am very strict about maintaining certain disciplines. We have been good here, too, only changing the Max in very specific circumstances. (Cheltenham, 49ers etc) & we discussed these up front & all agreed to go with it.

The Brighton one was not discussed though. It just so happened that I was going Offline that evening at 6.30pm (work), & the bet HAD to be done (or so we thought/hoped) BEFORE that evening's game against Charlton. The bet came in just as I was switching off the computer......Keith himself suggested that, assuming Brighton made the playoffs (deemed long odds on) then the plan was that we would lay off half the bet, so it was not really double max. Slightly disingenuous really, we could just have easily done it for £150, with £75 to be laid off.

Anyway, I think it's good to have a Compliance Officer thingie Chap, stops me getting carried away with myself at times. You could also find us a winner if you have a mo to spare. They seem rather thin on the ground right now.....

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 07300, Thursday April 4th

LOSS on Month = £638.30

Outstanding bets £1,583.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0740, Thursday April 4th

We lost a tenner yesterday.

Just a fun bet really, no complaints there, the place needed some positive vibes last night, but the bet never got there.

Today, we have a nice Darts bet lined up, Thornton Most 180's v Taylor, a bet we placed at the weekend. We have £60 @ 4/6, & were advised the price would shorten, the price is now 4/7.

Aintree begins today, so maybe we will find something there, though we don't need to bet for the sake of it unless some value can be found.  There is, I'm told, a Priority Offer on Wm Hill at 0830, these were, during Cheltenham, "Must Bets", so I will get on for the Max allowed if I get there in time. If anyone sees Priority Offers or the like elsewhere, please let us know.

The IPL began yesterday, & we have a few bets there already, with some more due to be placed this morning to give us a decent basket of bets, & interest.

I'll also be backing Ronnie, & Roberston in the World Snooker this morning, to bring our portfolio up to date.

Time issues meant I lost my way a bit the last few days with Recommends, but I'll get up to speed this morning. Probably.

[scotty2hatty]

scotty

 don't know if u watched the dogs but Holdem Spy dodged to fuuck tonight at Coventry,

......they'll prob repeat on rpgtv at some stage

Didn't see it Lee. Just checked result, they'll have video on greyhound data shortly so I'll catch it then.

Backed anything for the Golden Sprint?

[tikay]

A picture to cheer us all up.

Nostalgia. Those halcyon days when Fred was slamming the table and shouting "SHIP IT!"

Magnus went to Number 10 with Kramnik, Aronian and the other five candidates for the prize giving ceremony.

Those were the days, soon to re-appear, I have no doubt.
 
A rather interesting Photo actually. Would love to see inside Carlsen's mind.

[TheChipPrince]

Daily Summary, @ 0740, Thursday April 4th

We lost a tenner yesterday.

Just a fun bet really, no complaints there, the place needed some positive vibes last night, but the bet never got there.

Today, we have a nice Darts bet lined up, Thornton Most 180's v Taylor, a bet we placed at the weekend. We have £60 @ 4/6, & were advised the price would shorten, the price is now 4/7.

Aintree begins today, so maybe we will find something there, though we don't need to bet for the sake of it unless some value can be found.  There is, I'm told, a Priority Offer on Wm Hill at 0830, these were, during Cheltenham, "Must Bets", so I will get on for the Max allowed if I get there in time. If anyone sees Priority Offers or the like elsewhere, please let us know.

The IPL began yesterday, & we have a few bets there already, with some more due to be placed this morning to give us a decent basket of bets, & interest.

I'll also be backing Ronnie, & Roberston in the World Snooker this morning, to bring our portfolio up to date.

Time issues meant I lost my way a bit the last few days with Recommends, but I'll get up to speed this morning. Probably.

 

You think Ronnie & Robertsons price will shorten before offers are released?

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0740, Thursday April 4th

We lost a tenner yesterday.

Just a fun bet really, no complaints there, the place needed some positive vibes last night, but the bet never got there.

Today, we have a nice Darts bet lined up, Thornton Most 180's v Taylor, a bet we placed at the weekend. We have £60 @ 4/6, & were advised the price would shorten, the price is now 4/7.

Aintree begins today, so maybe we will find something there, though we don't need to bet for the sake of it unless some value can be found.  There is, I'm told, a Priority Offer on Wm Hill at 0830, these were, during Cheltenham, "Must Bets", so I will get on for the Max allowed if I get there in time. If anyone sees Priority Offers or the like elsewhere, please let us know.

The IPL began yesterday, & we have a few bets there already, with some more due to be placed this morning to give us a decent basket of bets, & interest.

I'll also be backing Ronnie, & Roberston in the World Snooker this morning, to bring our portfolio up to date.

Time issues meant I lost my way a bit the last few days with Recommends, but I'll get up to speed this morning. Probably.

 

You think Ronnie & Robertsons price will shorten before it offers are released?

Ahh, well reminded, clean forgot about that.

Truly, I'm losing the plot here. The thread has got too busy for me to cope some days. (Always get excuses in early).

Thanks Dwayne.

[superwomble]

Just seen that Macclesfield have sacked their manager. Currently 8th in Conf, 12 points behind play offs.

[tikay]

Just seen that Macclesfield have sacked their manager. Currently 8th in Conf, 12 points behind play offs.

Whoops. I think. Or maybe un-whoops, & it was what we needed.