Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

You're quicker on the draw than Ned Nederlander!

[Bad Beat]

 Bit slow actually. Could have got on if I'd read my messages earlier. Pricewise horses all smashed up too.

 Might go to bed. Got to get up early in the morning to win these days.

[Tal]

Bit slow actually. Could have got on if I'd read my messages earlier. Pricewise horses all smashed up too.

 Might go to bed. Got to get up early in the morning to win these days.

Just keep up to speed with the Aintree Tipster Competition. Should save you a couple of hours.

 

(Never lasts...sigh...)

[TightEnd]

Stat of the day, via Ch4R

In the last two years, including today, there have been 90 races at Cheltenham and Aintree festivals in march/April combined

Henderson stable has won 26 of them....

[tikay]

Nice filthy each-way race at Lingfield tomo (3.00) for those that like such things.

Van Der Neer is around 4/6 (odds-on, not odds-against ) and could just be too good.

But Hoarding is pretty solid each-way @ 6/1 with DontBetVictor, 1/5 1,2,3.

Recommend £25 each-way at that price ta.

Thanks Gee W.

Missed the 6/1. PP were going 11/2, but would only allow me £4.83.

Eventually reduced the bet to £10 as I could only get 5/1.

We have £10 EW, BetVictor, Hoarding, 3pm Lingfield.

ON


 Lingfield 15:00
HOARDING (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  5/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  80.00


 Lingfield 15:00
HOARDING (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  5/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  80.00

[TightEnd]

I must admit I am very surprised to see Brighton 6/4 in several places at home later today to Leicester

Leicester are completely out of form, 1 win in 11, lost their last three and all sorts of speculation about the manager, players not playing for him and lost the dressing room etc. Whether this is true, the reality is that many of the front six players lost form around February and results have been sliding since.

Brighton have only one win in six, but four of those have been away. In the two home games, 0-0 home to Charlton and 3-0 home to Palace, there is no suggestion that they'll lose tomorrow. They've also only conceded 3 goals in six games

Before I checked prices I had Brighton at a shade of odds on 10/11 or so, Leicester 11/4+

In fact

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-leicester/winner

A pretty crucial game for both teams. If Leicester lose the play offs begin to look forlorn. With six games to go it is appearing optimistic that form will turn in time to save the season, whereas Brighton can go a long way to locking up a play off spot tomorrow

It might conflict with the thread's new Brighton position as of this week to have more exposure via this individual game, but I will be on Brighton financially, not emotionally though!

[TightEnd]

sorry to go on but Brighton to beat Leicester is the same price as Watford to beat Cardiff

Can't be right can it? Brighton have got to be a better proposition than Watford tomorrow against a Cardiff side that is teak tough at solid away performances, really grind the results out based off 4-5-1 and defensive solidity....and I quite fancy Watford at 6/4 too!

[tikay]

I must admit I am very surprised to see Brighton 6/4 in several places at home later today to Leicester

Leicester are completely out of form, 1 win in 11, lost their last three and all sorts of speculation about the manager, players not playing for him and lost the dressing room etc. Whether this is true, the reality is that many of the front six players lost form around February and results have been sliding since.

Brighton have only one win in six, but four of those have been away. In the two home games, 0-0 home to Charlton and 3-0 home to Palace, there is no suggestion that they'll lose tomorrow. They've also only conceded 3 goals in six games

Before I checked prices I had Brighton at a shade of odds on 10/11 or so, Leicester 11/4+

In fact

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-leicester/winner

A pretty crucial game for both teams. If Leicester lose the play offs begin to look forlorn. With six games to go it is appearing optimistic that form will turn in time to save the season, whereas Brighton can go a long way to locking up a play off spot tomorrow

It might conflict with the thread's new Brighton position as of this week to have more exposure via this individual game, but I will be on Brighton financially, not emotionally though!

You did not suggest an amount, Rich, so I erred on the side of caution. From what I've seen this season, Championship games are dreadfully hard to predict, there have been so many inexplicable results.

Be good to sweat Brighton today for this AND the Promotion bet though.

We have £40 @ 29/20, BetVictor, Brighton to beat Leicester.

ON

Brighton and Hove Albion v Leicester City
Brighton and Hove Albion
(Match Betting)
Odds:  29/20
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  98.00

[tikay]

Tikay did you get on Bolton to beat Wolves tomorrow?

Thank you.

We have now!

I'm not quite sure how much value we have here, as the Bookies must know the score, but it looked a solid odds-on shot to me, using traditonal yardsticks, even without the latest problems at Wolves.

Even so, on a "Last 6 games Home & Away" Table, Bolton currrently sit 3rd. And Wolves sit 2nd!

But "Last 6, Bolton at home", sees Bolton clear top, with a pefrct 18 points from 6 games.

"Last 6 away games" sees Wolves down in 12th or 13th.

Anyway, we have had £40 @ Evens with Wm Hill, Bolton to make it 7 from 7.

ON


 06 Apr 2013 - Bolton v Wolves - Match Betting

Bolton @ EVS

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £80.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000379/F

[Jamier-Host]

Ladbrokes going 12/1 the field in the National.

Recommend getting on Seabass and On His Own @ 12/1 to win for the value.  Ones to lay off again if you don't want the exposure.

EDIT - Hills doing the same now too

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0845, Satrurday April 6th

LOSS on Month = £602.36

Outstanding bets £1,858.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Ladbrokes going 12/1 the field in the National.

Recommend getting on Seabass and On His Own @ 12/1 to win for the value.  Ones to lay off again if you don't want the exposure.

EDIT - Hills doing the same now too

Thanks.

Not sure, I need a little guidance there - we are already on Seabass @ 20/1, advised, would you believe, by Chompy of all people.

We are not on "On His Own", except, unrelated of course, our "Who Will Start Fav?" bets on On His Own, as well as Seabass & Cappe Bleu.

[Jamier-Host]

Ok. Well Seabass looks to be the no-brainer as you can back it @ 12/1 and lay it on Betfair @ 11/1 for a dirty arb position.

Wouldn't want to guess how the market will move throughout the day but suggestions were that both likely to go off single figures.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0850, Saturday April 6th

We lost £26.82 yesterday.

Just two bets on one horse, taking advantage of a good price.

I also found a straggler on the Spready, Tofino Bay for the Grand National, which was NRNB, so I removed that, as a push.

Our forward liabilities are at their highest ever level, nearly £2,000. I'm reasonably relaxed about the overall number, there are some right howlers in there, but some screamers too. I think we should do more, not less, forward stuff, Ante Post, there is such value to be had if we can spot it, but we need to keep an eye on the overall liability. 

We have quite a small book for today's Grand National, or so far, & we won't be far out. I'll post a summary shortly.

Will be loading up on the County Championship today, thanks to the lovely sumary by gherkin. I'll do a summary of our IPL stuff for rinswun, too.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

After last weeks horror tip my therapist has advised me to start of slowly as a means of getting back in the saddle. As you know I do like a good stat based bet and have a particular love of points betting in rugby matches. I had noticed something for a while now in Heineken cup matches and not done anything about it, until now. Heineken cup matches are tense, dour affairs, especially at the knock out stages. My default is to go for low points and in the past it ha served me very well. I have noticed in the past that having gone for low points that after the first half my low points was often in bad shape only to see hardly any points in the 2nd half.

Giving thought to this I came up with this reasoning. Few points are scored in these games, and in the first half players are happy to give away penalties as they feel that with so long left in the game 3 points is not too drastic whereas 7 points for the try must be avoided. The longer the game goes on the more vital 3 points becomes ( as long as the game is close) so they stop conceding penalties.

In my limited research, I only looked at last years matches, I found that 3 of the 1/4 finals and both semi finals had most points in the first half. So I am going to avoid the French match, which could be one sided, I am going to suggest we test this theory on the Saracens match.

Saracens v Ulster £20 most points in first half @ 6/5 Paddy Power.

In last years 1/4 finals the total points make ups were 33,37,38,25 so anyone who wants to bet on the points should be looking to go low but maybe not on the Clermont game.