Tips for Tikay

[moonandback]

Tiger is definitely an exception in the fact he was/hopefully is/probably always will be, such a good front runner and win machine, hence his skewed stats on win to place ratio compared to other golfers. Which is why I could definitely listen to anyone suggesting markets overestimating x and underestimating y when it comes to Tiger. I think he is a real anomoly and therefore a lot harder to price up to win events than any other golfer and maybe sports person or team, especially at the moment

exactly i would say he could be the only golfer in history to have such a skewed record well maybe Byron Nelson in the 40's but i knew without looking that he had so many more 1st's than 2nd's etc that i just had to look it up i know Nickluas had 18 major wins but 19 seconds woods has 14 wins and only 6 seconds in majors and i was surprised it was that many tbh.

Gonzo to be honest i dont know 3/1 seems fair but you have to assume he will really suffer on those quick slopey greens then again 4/11 Garcia does not exactly set the pulse racing either will Castano beat Garcia more than 25% of the time meh probably.

[Bad Beat]

 Not sure whether it's anyone here or just the arbers getting excited about the 6/1 each-way bets they are about to have but Tiger to place has just drifted from Evs to 6/5.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0730, Wednesday April 10th

LOSS on Month = £648.36

Outstanding bets £1,648.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0750, Wednesday April 10th

We got back on the winning trail yesterday & made a profit of £36.

Two bets completed, our £4 Fun Banzai on Galatassaray, which went down fighting, & Greg (Junior Senior) spotted a lovely Blue Square Premier game several days ago, & we got on 8/11 shot Hyde @ Evens, they were down to 10 men but still got home nicely, well done Greg.

This morning, after a few hectic days with other stuff, I need to get my Fred hat back on, all the County Cricket bets sorted, plus all The Masters action.

There are 10 or 12 Cricket bets, & as many in The Masters, + a really interesting debate on WIN or EW on Tiger, which even the experts are struggling to agree on which way to go.

Me, no worries, I rarely get confused, & my focus is clear & sharp.




 

[Tal]

Michelson EW 16/1 looks most interesting to me.

He's only finished outside the top 5 three times since 2001 and we are getting 4/1 for the third best in the market.

Feel free to make me look an idiot.

[tikay]

That was for my biggest ever bet as well !

At this rate next year I will be tipping in amounts of less than £5.

Hard to believe you tipped FIFTY quid!

These days you are mostly in the £10 to £25 range, whilst some guys want £150 on everything.

Unbelievable, your biggest bet, it won, & we missed it. And unlike yesterday, I could not use the "I was asleep" excuse.

There's been a bit of discussion recently about Fred's bet sizing and wondered if it would be worth asking contributors to recommend bets on a points scale say 1-5 pts, based on perceived value, rather than £ values ? 

Morning Simon.

I quite like this idea, though how we get everyone to buy-in to it would be quite difficult.

The range needs to start at £10, some regulars like to suggest stuff in the region of £10-£25, & if you suggest or bet more, it takes them out of their comfort zone & inhibits them from Posting suggestions. This would be a bad thing overall.

So the range needs to go from, say, £10 to £150, which would equate to 1 to 15, say.

There then has to be the exception, because we often do little £5 Banzais, there are great fun & good for the fun factor, so they'd need to be an exception.

I do like the idea, I'm just not sure if everyone would buy-in to it.

Be worth a discussion I think.

Thanks.

[Bad Beat]

 Never mind all that. Four ew gold bets at 8.30am (earlier than they said). Front three at 6/1, 12/1 and 16/1 and throw in Rose at 22/1 - all each-way.

[Tal]

Fred is kind of his own man. We muggles put forward our case as to why XYZ is a decent bet.

Fred can then assess whether and to what exent he is persuaded by the argument. If he is, he can determine bet sizing from there. It might be that the proposer has offered guidance on how much to bet, but I know I get twitchy putting up numbers.

[scotty2hatty]

Fred is kind of his own man. We muggles put forward our case as to why XYZ is a decent bet.

Fred can then assess whether and to what exent he is persuaded by the argument. If he is, he can determine bet sizing from there. It might be that the proposer has offered guidance on how much to bet, but I know I get twitchy putting up numbers.

Same. Think the highest I've suggested is something like £30.

[tikay]

Never mind all that. Four ew gold bets at 8.30am (earlier than they said). Front three at 6/1, 12/1 and 16/1 and throw in Rose at 22/1 - all each-way.

Thanks.

These are now ALL ON to Maximum allowable stakes.

These are "Offers" (way ool with everyone except Stan James) so have to be owned by Fred.

Details to follow. £260 invested.....

[rfgqqabc]

Stan match Hills.

[bobby1]

It leaves a bad taste in the mouth the way that Hills process these 'special price' offers. I tried to have £100 on one of the players lengthened this morning. The bet slip came back with £10 as the max stake. Ok I except they might want to restrict to smaller amounts but what did look very bad is it converted the rest of the stake they had refused into a bet at their regular price at the bottom of the betslip.

My guess is there will be many people that click the continue expecting to get whatever Hills have allowed them at the extended price without noticing they have also accepted the rest at the regular price.

[Waz1892]

Well ignored. Apologies

[tikay]

Here is my County Championship preview for Division 1

Warwickshire:  Quite rightly favourites, if they perform close to the same level of last couple of years they will be in the top 3
(+ve) Best Championship seam attack by a long way in Woakes, Rankin, Barker, Wright & Clarke.  Also have a very useful spinner in Patel.
 Best late order/tail in the league, Woakes and Clarke are genuine all rounders and Barker, Patel and Wright are very handy with the bat.
 They have come 1st and 2nd the last 2 seasons (would have been 2 successive wins without a very controversial points deduction) and that is with numbers 3,4 and 5 averaging less than 35 runs both seasons, which I'd expect an improvement on this time around
(-ve) Reserve keeper Johnson moved to Derby, so if Ambrose gets injured it will be a problem.
 When Bell & Trott are playing for England (probably 12 of the 16 games) the middle order (Westwood, Evans, Troughton, Maddy) looks weaker than the likes of Somerset, Surrey or Notts

Nottinghamshire:  Always look good on paper but underperformed the last 2 years (5th and 6th). Fancy them for a 1 day trophy rather than CC 
(-ve) The bowling is the obvious weakness and bringing in a 1 day specialist (Shahzad) won't help them regularly take 20 wickets
(+ve) If the bowling does click then the batting will takle care of itself with the likes of Hales, Lumb, Taylor, Read, Cowan/Hussey bound to post some impressive totals.

Somerset:  Last 3 years: 2nd/4th/2nd - very consistent.  Turning draws into wins will be key
(+ve) Given the number of injuries they had last year, 2nd was very impressive
  Runs will come no problem, despite losing Compton to England they have Trescothick back from injury to go with Peterson, Suppiah, Hildreth, Kieswetter & Trego. Along with Notts, strongest top 6
(-ve) Similar to Notts, how often will they get 20 wickets per game?  Surprised they didn't bring in 1 top bowler over the winter which would have made them favourites. They went after Harris but didn't try anyone after then when he chose Middlesex

Surrey:  Most unpredictable team in the division.  Wouldn't be surprised if they won the league or finished 7th
(+ve) In Graeme Smith they obviously have an excellent player and leader, just what Surrey needed.
They axed much of the deadwood and replaced them with the likes of Keedy, Solanki & Smith/Ponting - very experienced solid performers but very much a short term solution
Probably the 2nd best bowling attack after Warwickshire - Dernbach, Meaker, Tremlett, Lewis & Keedy/Batty.
(-ve) Niggling injuries to key players (Smith & Tremlett) at the start of the season - can't find any info if they will be fit for the start of the season but they haven't had any match practice.
Very much a young or old squad - no players in their prime

Derbyshire: No chance of winning the league although staying up is possible
(+ve) A few things going for them - Momentum, confidence, young team, nothing to lose and Chanderpaul is as good as any batsmen in the division
(-ve) It's one thing winning Div 2, but to win Div 1 the very next year is a completely different challenge. I don't think any team has done it yet, and so for a small team like Derbyshire to do it would be beyond impressive

Durham:  A team in freefall, gone from back to back winners to title challengers to a mess in 5 years.  Great outside bet on finishing bottom at 7/1
(+ve) Stokes, Collingwood, Benkenstein, Mustard is as good a 4,5,6,7 as any team and Onions was excellent with the ball last year
(-ve) Blown all their money on the likes of Harmison, Di Venuto, Benkenstein, Blackwell & Plunkett in the last 2 years so they can't afford an overseas player this season
Their best (and only top class) bowler will get an England call up if he does anywhere near as well as he did last year
Completely over rated team on the basis of their streangth 3-5 years ago.

Middlesex: Solid all round team with an outside shot at the title, 2 very good coaches copying the succesful set up at Warwickshire
(+ve) In Harris they signed the most saught after player this winter.  Bowling should look after itself, similar standard to Surrey just lacking a top spinner which could prove costly late on in the season
Players like Harris and Morgan should be fighting for England spots, scoring plenty of runs and taking plenty of wickets
(-ve) Probably the weakest keeper in the league (in terms of stats/experience, I don't think I've ever seen him play)
Batting was poor last year (Rogers aside) and they opted for the "it'll be alright this time around" strategy rather than improving it!

Sussex: I just look at their squad and think one day cricket. That said they've been a consistent mid-table team since they were promoted
(+ve) If they get a good start, they certainly have the talent and experience to be a contender
(-ve) One day cricket will surely be a priority for them and a sustained challenge in this competition seems unlikely, especially if Monty plays a few tests for England
Ed Joyce has never convinced me he is captain material.  If they get off to a bad start like last season I can see the wheels coming off instead of another recovery

Yorkshire:  Young team, surely too much to expect them to win it but can definitely see them staying up
(+ve)  The 1st XI looks reasonable, plenty of very capable younger players to compliment the experienced Sidebottom, Plunkett and Gale
(-ve) Root, Bairstow & Bresnan are all likely to feauture for England at various points in the summer, which will likely expose their lack of depth

Predicted Position / Team / (% chance of winning the title) / (% chance of relegation)

1. Warwickshire / 20% / 10%
2. Somerset / 17% / 10%
3. Surrey / 15% / 10%
4. Nottinghamshire / 14% / 10%
5. Middlesex / 12% / 15%
6. Yorkshire / 9% / 25%
7. Sussex / 6% / 25%
8. Derbyshire / 2% / 60%
9. Durham / 5% / 35%


As you can see it's a lot more open league than something like the Premier League.  With 2 out of 9 going down, not even the best teams are safe.

In terms of bets, personally I went for Warwickshire when they were 5/1.  You can still get them at 9/2, not sure if that's enough value for a 5 month bet. 
**As a disclaimer, I'm a big Warwickshire fan.  I was on them in 2011 when they finished 2nd (at 12/1) and again last year when they won it (at 10/1).  In my 10ish years of betting on this competition these are the only 3 seasons I've backed them, so it's not a case of just betting on my team**

Whilst I wouldn't have chosen it myself, you did well getting on Middlesex at 17/2 as they are now 15/2.  Somerset look the right price at 6/1 and Notts look too short at 11/2.  I'm considering Surrey at 7/1, going to have a think about that one

Since you have the Middlesex bet on I'd probably advise to leave it for now and we'll see if either the Surrey, Somerset or Warwicks price increase in the next few days. 

The "finish bottom" market is more interesting.  Derbyshire are favourites but have, at most, a 40% chance of coming last.  There is definitely value backing Durham (7/1).  I really want a relegation market, hopefully one will appear before the season starts - I'd love to take Sussex at 4/1 or better or Durham around 7/2. 

Top Scoring Captains: Read, Collingwood, Gale & Troughton are all unlikely to pass 1000 runs. 
Of the 6/1 shots - Masden only got 885 runs in Div 2 last year, Smith is only playing 10 games for Surrey which is obviously a big handicap and Joyce is capable but nowhere near as prolific as Trescothick, Rogers or Smith
To me it has to be Trescothick or Rogers...  I expected them both to be around 2/1.  Rogers last 3 season totals are 1108, 1286 and 1285.  Trescothick last 3 full seasons (ignoring 2012 where he was mostly injured) were 1673, 1397 and 1817.  Both have had 5 seasons in a row of 1100 runs plus

Top Batsman: Trescothick last 4 full seasons since quitting England:  6th (2008), 1st (2009), 4th (2010), 1st (2011),
No need to look elsewhere, I'd suggest an E/W bet (1/4 top 5) at 10/1
As a back up (and still decent value) then maybe consider Rogers Top Scoring Captain at 10/3

Had a look briefly at the "top team batsman" market but nothing immediately took my fancy

I'll post Division 2 when I get a chance, hopefully find some better value there

This is terrific stuff, thank you.

Warwickshire Outright.

You suggest 9/2 minimum, & I really like the bet, but they are currently only 4/1. Based on your comments, ("perhaps best to keep an eye on the market") I'll do exactly that, & if any 9/2 becomes available, we'll get on. I don't mind getting on at 4/1, but I think you were suggesting 9/2 minimum.  We do have a small interest already in Middlesex.

Finish Bottom

Value in Durham @ 7/1.

13/2 remains available in one spot, & is ool, so we have had £20.

Top Scoring Captain

As recommended (see also Top Scoring Batsmen) we have had £40 @ 7/2 (slightly better price), Rogers. This (possibly...) sits alongside Trescothick as Top Batsman. 

Top Batsman

Trescothink recommened EW @ 10/1, but that price is long gone (my bad) & he is 17/2 best now. I've left that for now, as I missed the price. Is he worth £20 @ 17/2?

_____

So, for now, just 2 bets, as below. We can follow up if you wish to based on comments above.






County Championship, to finish Bottom, DURHAM - £20 @ 13/2, Sporting Bet.


Top Scoring Captain, ROGERS, £40 @ 7/2, BetVictor

ON

Bet Type: Single
County Championship Division 1 2013 - To Finish Bottom County Championship Division 1 2013 - To Finish Bottom
Durham
13/2
Cricket Possible Payout 150.00 GBP
1 bet @
20.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 20.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 150.00 GBP

________

10/04/2013 GBP 40.00 Single: CHRIS ROGERS @ 7/2 
Betid 31085744000 Time: 09:49 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 40.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
Top Run Scoring Captain County Championship Division One - 2013
Outright - Match
 Chris Rogers  7/2  Win only  Unsettled 

_____________

[Junior Senior]

They are top 5 and it would make a great ew bet.

Piled in just now