Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Really like the 4/5 available with titan bet for barca vs psg to have more goals than juve barca game.  Does anyone have any views on if this is a decent price or not? If the experts agree its a good value price then I'd suggest a decent (£50?) bet for fred.

Hi sparrer,

I assume you mean "Juve - Bayern"?

Logic of the bet? Just curioys at the moment!

I did indeed mean Juve - Bayern.  Reasons being Barcelona are known goal machines, even though they are without Messi tonight , they won 5-0 this weekend without him.  Fabregas and Villa are effective goal scorers.  PSG also have a host of attacking talent.  Barca have only kept 15 clean sheets from 49 games this term, PSG have scores 2+ in their last 6 champions league games, domestically they have scored 14 in their last 15.  First game ended 2-2, neither team are 'safe' and both teams will be looking for goals, its Barca's style to attack and PSG need to score.  Both teams to score in this game is 4/5 and I also like this bet a lot.  Barca are also missing Puyol and Mascherano, two very important defensive players which will give PSG more chance of scoring.

Why do I think 4/5 is value for them to outscore juve - bayern?  Well Bayern are also goal machines of late, recently beat hamburg 9-2!  They are winning 2-0 from the first leg and and don't need to score to qualify, Juve can't afford to let in any away goals or the tie could well  be beyond them and they are a tough nut to crack at home, won the last 3 champions league games to nil.  They do have to attack to qualify so they could leave gaps at the back which bayern are more than capable of exploiting.

I don't know the true price for this bet, but personally I wouldn't lay this bet at this price which makes me feel like backing it.  I don't know the maths behind it which is why I asked for the experts approval first, I just feel its a good bet and even if Fred doesn't back it, if i gained any knowledge from replies if it was a good bet or not it would help me out.

Messi is out for Barca which is huge for this bet.  Can't say I love it on that basis but it does open up a lot of other opportunities.  in particular I like Villa e/w @ 7/2 for FGS.

[horseplayer]

Really like the 4/5 available with titan bet for barca vs psg to have more goals than juve barca game.  Does anyone have any views on if this is a decent price or not? If the experts agree its a good value price then I'd suggest a decent (£50?) bet for fred.

Hi sparrer,

I assume you mean "Juve - Bayern"?

Logic of the bet? Just curioys at the moment!

I did indeed mean Juve - Bayern.  Reasons being Barcelona are known goal machines, even though they are without Messi tonight , they won 5-0 this weekend without him.  Fabregas and Villa are effective goal scorers.  PSG also have a host of attacking talent.  Barca have only kept 15 clean sheets from 49 games this term, PSG have scores 2+ in their last 6 champions league games, domestically they have scored 14 in their last 15.  First game ended 2-2, neither team are 'safe' and both teams will be looking for goals, its Barca's style to attack and PSG need to score.  Both teams to score in this game is 4/5 and I also like this bet a lot.  Barca are also missing Puyol and Mascherano, two very important defensive players which will give PSG more chance of scoring.

Why do I think 4/5 is value for them to outscore juve - bayern?  Well Bayern are also goal machines of late, recently beat hamburg 9-2!  They are winning 2-0 from the first leg and and don't need to score to qualify, Juve can't afford to let in any away goals or the tie could well  be beyond them and they are a tough nut to crack at home, won the last 3 champions league games to nil.  They do have to attack to qualify so they could leave gaps at the back which bayern are more than capable of exploiting.

I don't know the true price for this bet, but personally I wouldn't lay this bet at this price which makes me feel like backing it.  I don't know the maths behind it which is why I asked for the experts approval first, I just feel its a good bet and even if Fred doesn't back it, if i gained any knowledge from replies if it was a good bet or not it would help me out.

Messi is out for Barca which is huge for this bet.  Can't say I love it on that basis but it does open up a lot of other opportunities.  in particular I like Villa e/w @ 7/2 for FGS.

it is only one game but barca looked a better side at the weekend in that other players who had been coasting (alexis for one) stepped up to the void

obviously it is a negative but interestingly since the team news barca have not drifted infact they have shortened a bit

[tikay]

best suggestion

BRENTFORD v crewe

first scorer and anytime Harlee Dean at 40-1 and 16-1

reasoning

crewe have conceded a lot of goals from set pieces this season (top 3 in league)

dean is one of the more likely candidates from brentford having netted a few times this season and gone close on various other occasions

the 50-1 that was there when i first started typing this was even better but the 40-1 and 16-1 is still to big.

suggest

£3 first scorer

£5 anytime scorer

both prices with coral

general price for first is 25-1 and anytime varies from a general 7-1 to one firm offering 12-1 and coral the standout 16-1

Done, thanks!

£3 @ 40/1, Corals, Harlee Dean, Crewe v Brentford

£5 @ 16/1, Corals, Harlee Dean, Crewe v Brentford

ON



SingleID:O/1597594/0000062

Harlee Dean40/1Crewe v Brentford - 10/04/2013
Stake £3.00
Estimated Return:£123.00
SingleID:O/1597594/0000063

Harlee Dean16/1Crewe v Brentford - 10/04/2013
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£85.00
Total Stake: £8.00
Potential Return: £208.00

[redarmi]

Villa is much better done on Betfair where he is a bigger price.....Fabregas would be an option too

[tikay]

Really like the 4/5 available with titan bet for barca vs psg to have more goals than juve barca game.  Does anyone have any views on if this is a decent price or not? If the experts agree its a good value price then I'd suggest a decent (£50?) bet for fred.

Hi sparrer,

I assume you mean "Juve - Bayern"?

Logic of the bet? Just curioys at the moment!

I did indeed mean Juve - Bayern.  Reasons being Barcelona are known goal machines, even though they are without Messi tonight , they won 5-0 this weekend without him.  Fabregas and Villa are effective goal scorers.  PSG also have a host of attacking talent.  Barca have only kept 15 clean sheets from 49 games this term, PSG have scores 2+ in their last 6 champions league games, domestically they have scored 14 in their last 15.  First game ended 2-2, neither team are 'safe' and both teams will be looking for goals, its Barca's style to attack and PSG need to score.  Both teams to score in this game is 4/5 and I also like this bet a lot.  Barca are also missing Puyol and Mascherano, two very important defensive players which will give PSG more chance of scoring.

Why do I think 4/5 is value for them to outscore juve - bayern?  Well Bayern are also goal machines of late, recently beat hamburg 9-2!  They are winning 2-0 from the first leg and and don't need to score to qualify, Juve can't afford to let in any away goals or the tie could well  be beyond them and they are a tough nut to crack at home, won the last 3 champions league games to nil.  They do have to attack to qualify so they could leave gaps at the back which bayern are more than capable of exploiting.

I don't know the true price for this bet, but personally I wouldn't lay this bet at this price which makes me feel like backing it.  I don't know the maths behind it which is why I asked for the experts approval first, I just feel its a good bet and even if Fred doesn't back it, if i gained any knowledge from replies if it was a good bet or not it would help me out.

Me too, & feedback is coming in now. My dinner is in the oven, let me go have that & I'll pop back & see if we have decided whether to get on.

Thanks again.

[tikay]

Villa is much better done on Betfair where he is a bigger price.....Fabregas would be an option too

...but they only offer "Win"?

[Tal]

Messi on the bench, I believe

[Junior Senior]

General question, has Fred seen an increase in volume of bets per month, month on month as it has progressed? Seems we have been firing a lot of bets in recently but as i have only really followed closely for a month or so i am not sure of the facts.

[tikay]

General question, has Fred seen an increase in volume of bets per month, month on month as it has progressed? Seems we have been firing a lot of bets in recently but as i have only really followed closely for a month or so i am not sure of the facts.

I'll reply properly  later, Greg, I'm a little busy right now.

There HAVE been more bets this month, partly due to Aintree & The Masters (we still had the fairy wheels on this time last year), but even so, "more bets" is a good thing, as long as we are getting value.

If you open the Spreadsheet, & click, say, "Sports", the Monthly Bet Totals are at the foot of each column.(4th column, under "no").

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4

[Dubai]

Our number of bets should increase as more people post, more opinions given, more accounts we have access too etc. Bet size should obviously increase as our roll does as well

Ideally we have an awful lot of small/medium sized bets with small edges, and occasional big bet when our edge is bigger- I think Redarmi posted ages ago saying the days of 1 bet per day etc are long gone, need to just have a ton of bets that are small +ev and let variance run its course. Realistically Fred is most certainly not having enough bets and without a doubt is betting too small the majority of the time to be optimal. But let's not forget its supposed to be a bit of fun not Tikays full time job.

[bobby1]

Does anyone have a view on the Masters top debutant market, it looks a great ew market at 1/5 first 4 with Laddies. Can probably narrow it down to 12 runners without the AM's. The top 2 in the market might be weak too with Colsaerts putter colder than well something cold and Olesen fresh from a whiplash injury after a car crash a few weeks ago.add in there could be a bit of draw bias about too and it looks like a must bet market.

I've bet a few but didn't have a strong view but it feels like such a good betting heat we should be involved if anyone does have a strong view.  

[tikay]

Our number of bets should increase as more people post, more opinions given, more accounts we have access too etc. Bet size should obviously increase as our roll does as well

Ideally we have an awful lot of small/medium sized bets with small edges, and occasional big bet when our edge is bigger- I think Redarmi posted ages ago saying the days of 1 bet per day etc are long gone, need to just have a ton of bets that are small +ev and let variance run its course. Realistically Fred is most certainly not having enough bets and without a doubt is betting too small the majority of the time to be optimal. But let's not forget its supposed to be a bit of fun not Tikays full time job.

There you go Greg, the perfect answer, the answer to profitable betting there.

I really am struggling for time at present, or we would be betting a lot more.

Think I have put SIXTEEN bets on today (Masters, & loading up for the Cricket season),  & enjoyed doing so, but it just takes a lot of time, which I cannot always commit to. I'm offline most of tomorrow, which often happens, so I miss a lot of stuff. And then there are the misclicky things......

[Junior Senior]

It was a general question unloaded out of genuine curiosity. I thought that naturally it would increase over time as more get on board so its really down to Tony to filter out what he doesn't consider it value and make some polite knock backs along the way.

I am learning a lot from this at the moment which is great and doing my own filtering. Not everyone can be experts i suppose.

[tikay]

Does anyone have a view on the Masters top debutant market, it looks a great ew market at 1/5 first 4 with Laddies. Can probably narrow it down to 12 runners without the AM's. The top 2 in the market might be weak too with Colsaerts putter colder than well something cold and Olesen fresh from a whiplash injury after a car crash a few weeks ago.add in there could be a bit of draw bias about too and it looks like a must bet market.

I've bet a few but didn't have a strong view but it feels like such a good betting heat we should be involved if anyone does have a strong view.  

Fire away, Phil.......

[Tal]

It was a general question unloaded out of genuine curiosity. I thought that naturally it would increase over time as more get on board so its really down to Tony to filter out what he doesn't consider it value and make some polite knock backs along the way.

I am learning a lot from this at the moment which is great and doing my own filtering. Not everyone can be experts i suppose.

Best thread I've seen anywhere for everyone being helpful and insightful.

Just pipe up and someone who knows a lot more than I will say something useful...immediately after I've said the opposite.